It’s been over a week since Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers appeared on “The Pat McAfee Show” to announce his intention to play for the New York Jets. While Rodgers intimated that Green Bay’s asking price was holding up a trade, it still seemed like a deal would come together rather quickly, especially given that the Packers have indicated they’re ready to move on from the future Hall of Famer.
And yet, nothing has happened. Rodgers is still a Packer, and recent updates on talks between New York and Green Bay have been few and far between. Let’s review the latest on a potential Rodgers trade and figure out where things stand.
Aaron Rodgers Trade at a ‘Standstill’
On Thursday, ESPN’s Adam Schefter said the Jets and Packers “haven’t spoken much in the past week,” leaving talks between the two teams “stalled.”
“There’s been a standoff with Green Bay wanting more than the Jets are offering,” Schefter said. “The Jets feel like they’re offering a lot. The Packers feel like they’re not offering enough, and the two sides are left at a standstill.”
Schefter also confirmed a recent Pro Football Talk report that Green Bay wants more than a sole first-round pick in exchange for Rodgers.
The Jets hold the No. 13 pick in the first round, but they now have two second-rounders after trading wide receiver Elijah Moore to the Cleveland Browns this week. New York is scheduled to make back-to-back selections at Nos. 42 and 43.
While the Jets could now be positioned to send both of those second-round choices to the Packers for Rodgers, it’s unclear if that compensation would satisfy either club.
The Jimmy Johnson trade chart values those two picks as roughly equal to the 13th overall selection. Meanwhile, Chase Stuart’s data — based on Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric — says New York’s two second-rounders are worth closer to the No. 9 overall pick.
Explaining the Lack of Urgency for a Rodgers Trade
Although the Jets and Packers are engaged in a standoff over the compensation for Rodgers, both clubs should be highly motivated to work out this trade.
New York has conducted its offseason as if Rodgers is already a Jet. They’ve signed former Packers receiver Allen Lazard, who was reportedly on Rodgers’ Gang Green wishlist, to a four-year, $44 million deal. They’re still interested in adding another Rodgers favorite in Odell Beckham Jr.
The Jets also haven’t expressed any recent interest in any other quarterbacks. They met with Derek Carr before the start of free agency, but he’s since signed with the New Orleans Saints. Other options like Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett, and Marcus Mariota have all found new homes.
New York seems unlikely to sign Lamar Jackson to an offer sheet, so if a Rodgers trade somehow falls apart, the Jets’ QB choices will become extremely limited. They could theoretically explore a trade for Tennessee Titans signal-caller Ryan Tannehill or consider signing a free agent like Carson Wentz or Matt Ryan, but any avenue would be disappointing compared to a Rodgers acquisition.
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Meanwhile, waiting to execute a Rodgers trade could actually help the Packers from a salary cap perspective. If Green Bay deals Rodgers before June 1, it will take on $8.7 million in dead money, as his prorated signing bonus would immediately accelerate onto the team’s books. But if they wait until after June 1, the Packers could spread that money over the 2023 and 2024 campaigns. A post-June 1 trade would result in nearly $18 million in cap savings for Green Bay.
However, if Green Bay is hoping another team miraculously shows interest in Rodgers and allows the Packers to wrangle their asking price from the Jets, they will likely be frustrated.
“The Packers have no leverage,” an NFL general manager told Jason La Canfora of the Washington Post this week. “There is only one team that wants anything to do with Aaron Rodgers, and that’s the Jets.”
Looking around the league, it’s hard to find another organization that could be amenable to adding Rodgers at this point. Aside from the clubs projected to pick a quarterback near the top of the draft, every team has filled its vacancy under center. The Titans could hypothetically be interested if they moved on from Tannehill, but even that feels like a stretch.
A Post-Draft Rodgers Trade Could Make Sense
With the Jets and Packers at an impasse, it’s worth wondering if a Rodgers trade could come together quickly after the 2023 draft.
At that point, New York’s 2023 first-round pick would obviously be off the table. Instead, the Jets could offer their 2024 first-rounder, which — assuming a Rodgers-led New York squad finishes better than last season’s Jets club — would fall later in the first round than this year’s pick at No. 13.
Green Bay could balk at that offer, especially given that NFL teams typically discount future picks (the Packers may view a 2024 first-round selection as equal to a 2023 second-round choice).
MORE: Does Aaron Rodgers Make the New York Jets Super Bowl Contenders?
But the Packers are ready to move on. They’ve already spoken about Rodgers in the past tense, and the optics of shifting to presumed starter Jordan Love will become more apparent after Green Bay exercises his 2024 fifth-year option in early May.
There’s no reason a Rodgers trade can’t wait until after the upcoming draft. His option bonus, the most complicated part of his contract, doesn’t have to be exercised until Week 1 of the regular season. And Rodgers wouldn’t miss any key offseason dates until organized team activities in late May.
Occam’s Razor says a Rodgers trade will get done. The Jets and Packers don’t have anywhere else to turn, but we might have to wait a while to see which team breaks first.
