Arden Key is one of the best edge rushers on the 2023 NFL free agent market. That may sound surprising, especially given that Key has never been a full-time player and has only 14 career sacks to his name. But high-end pass rushers never reach the open market, meaning role players like Key are often the cream of the crop. Where could the Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end land this offseason?
Arden Key Free Agency Predictions
The Kansas City Chiefs Need Another Pass Rusher
Chris Jones is one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL, and defensive end George Karlaftis flashed for the Chiefs during his rookie campaign. Veteran pass rusher Frank Clark was better in 2022 than he’d been in recent seasons, but there was never a chance he’d return to Kansas City with a $28.675 million cap charge. The Chiefs cut Clark before free agency, making defensive end a priority in KC.
Key hasn’t played more than 45% of his team’s defensive snaps in any of the past four seasons. While there’s a chance he could remain effective in a more prominent role, he might be best utilized as a designated pass rusher with limited snaps.
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Given how much they have invested in Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City is unlikely to be active in the free agent market. Instead, they’ll probably add ancillary pieces each offseason — an approach they’ve taken along their defensive line in each of the past two years.
In 2021, the Chiefs signed defensive Jarran Reed to a one-year deal after he was released by the Seahawks. In 2022, they inked veteran defensive end Carlos Dunlap to a one-year pact and saw him post four sacks. Dunlap is a pending free agent, so the 26-year-old Key could become his younger replacement up front.
Key Could Take Over Opposite Myles Garrett in Cleveland
It’s safe to say Jadeveon Clowney won’t return to the Browns in 2023 after ripping Cleveland’s coaching staff and subsequently being deactivated for the club’s season finale. But even if Clowney was set to come back, the Browns could have still used a tertiary player like Key.
Cleveland ranked 27th in both sacks and pressure rate a year ago, as nearly every non-Myles Garrett defensive lineman struggled. Clowney was solid against the run but managed only two sacks. Rookie Alex Wright looked overmatched. And trade acquisition Chase Winovich played just 16% of the Browns’ defensive snaps.
“I think the fortunate thing with the defensive line, probably a little bit different than the offensive line, is there are a number of configurations that can allow it to work,” Browns general manager Andrew Berry said after the season. “That is certainly a position group that we do value, and we will continue to value, no different than the offensive line on the offensive side of the ball. We will continue to invest in it and make those decisions at the appropriate time.”
Because he’s versatile enough to slide inside, Key could help with those various “configurations” Berry mentioned. He still needs work as a run defender, so Cleveland may have to allocate other resources to finding stout linemen who can help against opposing rushing attacks. But if the Browns want an experienced rusher to pair with Garrett and Wright in 2023, Key could be their man.
The Carolina Panthers Need a Partner for Brian Burns
The Panthers are moving to a 3-4 defense under new coordinator Ejiro Evero, but versatile pass rushers like Key can fit in any scheme. With their LB and DB depth charts largely squared away, Carolina can focus on making meaningful additions to its defensive line.
Brian Burns is a superstar, but he can’t do it alone. Second-year defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos played nearly three-quarters of the Panthers’ snaps opposite Burns, but he was among the least-effective edge defenders in the NFL, managing just 28 pressures on 462 pass-rushing snaps.
Carolina doesn’t have to give up on Gross-Matos as he enters the final year of his rookie deal, but they should consider adding a veteran to their EDGE group. Key might make perfect sense for the Panthers — he wouldn’t have to play a full complement of snaps, and Carolina could also reduce Gross-Matos’ workload.
Key Would Give the New Orleans Saints Payton Turner Insurance
The Saints are $25 million over the salary cap, but they’ll continue restructuring contracts and pushing money into the future until they’re cap-compliant. It always seems ridiculous to predict free agents to sign in New Orleans given the team’s financial issues, but general manager Mickey Loomis always makes it work.
A new quarterback will likely soak up most of the cap space the Saints are able to drudge up, but they should still have room to add mid-tier free agents such as Key. With former first-round pick Marcus Davenport likely to leave this offseason, New Orleans has a spot open up front.
2020 first-rounder Payton Turner is tentatively scheduled to replace Davenport, but the Saints can’t possibly trust him, given that he’s appeared in just 13 games over two seasons. Some of those absences were injury-related, but Turner was a healthy scratch to begin his career and again at the end of the 2022 campaign.
Plus, veteran defensive end Cameron Jordan will turn 34 years old in July, so he’s unlikely to keep up a snap rate that’s hovered near 80% in recent seasons. Key could relieve both Jordan and Turner next season, and Key’s versatility could allow the Saints to play all three pass rushers together.
Arden Key’s Market Value, Career Stats, and More
At one point, Key looked like the top defensive player available in the 2018 draft, but off-field issues forced him to fall to the third round, where the Raiders scooped him up. After three disappointing years in black and silver, Key was approaching bust status when 49ers defensive line coach Kris Kocurek helped him revive his career with 6.5 sacks in 2021.
After putting up 4.5 sacks for the Jaguars in 2022, Key should be a hot commodity on the free agent market — but he doesn’t necessarily want to leave Jacksonville.
“I think they’re going to bring us back and add more to it,” Key told Mia O’Brien of 1010XL in January. “We’re gonna add a couple of pieces here to get us over that hump that we have this year. All in all, the same football team is coming back here next year. And we’re going to be better.
“Mike (DC Mike Caldwell), in his second year as a DC, is going to call better plays and the whole nine. Us as a defense, we’re going to play better, we’re going to play faster. This is our first time in the system. Next year will be our second time in the system, and everything will click faster.”
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Spotrac projects an $11.3 million annual salary for Key, which would represent a significant step up from the $4 million he made with Jacksonville last season. That figure seems right, given the absence of high-quality pass-rushing options on the market. On a two- or three-year contract, Key might be able to get a hefty portion of his compensation guaranteed.
Arden Key Career Stats
- Games: 71
- Sacks: 14
- QB Hits: 58
- Tackles: 98
