While traditional fantasy football formats have dominated the landscape, managers can find numerous ways to play the game they love. Underdog Pick’em contests allow managers to put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines.
Here are the top Underdog Pick’em plays for Sunday Night Football between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Sunday Night Football
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. Here, the more selections you add to your entry, the higher the payout.
The levels are two players for 3x, three for 6x, four for 10x, and finally, five for 20x, progressing with each additional pick ’em you add to your entry.
With Underdog Fantasy, it’s a brand new season every week, no matter how your other leagues are going at the moment. Sign up today and get a 100% deposit bonus of up to $100. As for my recommendations, below are my top Underdog Pick’ems for Sunday Night Football in Week 18.
Jared Goff Higher Than 0.5 Interceptions
Much of the improvement of the Detroit Lions this year can be attributed to the play of Jared Goff, and we’ve seen that reflected in fantasy, as he’ll finish as a QB1 this year.
However, he’s a different quarterback on the road. Despite some of their inefficiencies, Green Bay’s defense has been able to force turnovers, including 17 interceptions on the season, and their 3.8% interception rate is the highest in the league.
MORE: Wharton’s Start ’em Sit ’em Week 18
They’re also able to get after the quarterback without sending extra pressure, with the second-highest pressure rate (32%) when not blitzing. Like many quarterbacks, Goff doesn’t like it when really big humans are coming after him.
Goff’s interception rate jumps from 0.9% to 2.2% when playing from behind, and his interception rate nearly doubles when on the road (0.9% to 1.7%). I’ll take a shot on Goff throwing one interception and take the higher on his Underdog Pick’em projection.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Higher Than 6.5 Receptions
Amon-Ra St. Brown is a volume hog. He’s 11th in target share and second in target rate per route run. While he only recorded four receptions on five targets last week, St. Brown has cleared 6.5 receptions in six of the previous eight games and nine total times this year. As the critical target on third down, I like St. Brown to go higher than 6.5 perceptions on Sunday Night Football as the Lions’ top target and one of the few legit No. 1s in the NFL.
D’Andre Swift Higher Than 58.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards
For as solid as Green Bay has been against the pass, they’ve been brutal against the run. Since Week 12, Green Bay has been 31st in success rate, 27th in rushing yards, 31st in explosive runs, and 28th in rush DVOA. Additionally, they are 26th in rushing yards per game and 27th in yards per play.
Both Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift had a ton of success last week as they combined for 274 scrimmage yards, with Swift gaining 78 rushing and 39 receiving on top of two touchdowns. I would be fine taking either his rushing or receiving projections, but with any touch going toward the combined total, I’m opting for that route for his Underdog Pick’em projection.
Aaron Rodgers Higher Than 254.5 Passing Yards
It’s no secret the Lions, despite their improvements, have a bottom-tier defense. Since Week 12, they’re 18th in yards, 24th in EPA, 31st in explosive rate, and 25th in DVOA.
Although Aaron Rodgers certainly isn’t having the season he wanted, he carved up the Lions back in Week for 291 yards and a touchdown and will have his full complement of receivers with Christian Watson another week removed from his hip injury.
I’m not going to go against Rodgers in the season’s final game with a chance to go to the playoffs on the line against a division rival. With consistent passing to Allen Lazard, Aaron Jones, and one or two deep balls to Watson, I like Rogers to go higher than 254.5 yards on Sunday Night Football.
Robert Tonyan Higher Than 2.5 Receptions
Robert Tonyan is no longer the darling he was after recording more touchdowns (11) than incomplete targets (7) back in 2020. He’s been essentially nonexistent this year, with a 12.5% target share and only two games with more than 40 yards receiving.
MORE: Who Should I Start in Fantasy Football in Week 18?
However, I am playing the match-up rather than the player. Tonyan had three receptions against the Lions in Week 9, but as a defense, Detroit ranks 29th in catch rate, 25th in yards per target, and is tied with the Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals for the most touchdowns allowed to the position (11). I like Big Bob Tonyan to go higher than 2.5 receptions.
