You came to the right place for all of your fantasy football start/sit needs. Week 16 has a critical AFC matchup between the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars that will also affect your fantasy playoffs. We’re here to project how the tough decisions will play out so you can bring home your fantasy league trophy.
Two key playmakers to watch this week between the Jets and Jaguars are wide receivers Zay Jones and Christian Kirk. Let’s dive into whether you should start Jones and Kirk against the Jets.
Should You Start Zay Jones vs. the Jets?
It’s amazing what two good weeks will do for someone’s fantasy stock. Jones has been a high-volume target for Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence throughout the season but has been basically nondescript for all but two weeks. Of his 764 total yards, 254 have come in two games. Additionally, three of his five touchdowns have come in two games.
His massive six-reception, 109-yard, and three-touchdown performance against Dallas in Week 15 were jaw-dropping. Jones was able to get wide open on a well-executed hitch-n-go that left Cowboys cornerback Kelvin Joseph fighting for his job for the remainder of the season. Besides that, he was just the lucky guy who found himself open near the goal line.
That sort of luck can swing a playoff matchup. Jones has been surprisingly involved in the Jaguars’ offense despite ranking as an average playmaker in every advanced individual metric. Despite being 42nd in route win rate, 66th in target separation vs. man coverage, and 53rd at contested catch rate, Jones is now WR19 in PPR leagues because of his Week 15.
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Sitting second on the Jaguars in targets and first in receptions, Jones is a viable fantasy play for Week 16. He’s hit at least 68 yards and at least eight targets in four of the last five games. He’ll likely see a lot of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed this week as an outside receiver, which bodes poorly for Jones since they’ve formed a dynamic and extremely effective duo.
We have Jones as WR29 in our PFN expert fantasy football rankings for PPR leagues. The Jets have given up the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers this season, meaning we’re likely looking at a lower-scoring game with fewer opportunities for Jones to get red zone touches. His upside is lower than his teammates because the Jets are especially good at limiting receivers’ scoring ability.
Playing Jones since he’s the hot hand is understandable, but he’s not in a favorable situation to sit a star over. The Jets allowed more than 198 passing yards for the first time in six games last week, making it unlikely Lawrence has a monstrous statistical game. I’d sit Jones if it’s possible.
Should You Start Christian Kirk vs. the Jets?
Although Jones has taken over Kirk’s crown as the team’s leading pass catcher, Kirk is still WR1 in Jacksonville. He’s still getting at least seven targets per game and is as likely to get 90 yards or more as he is to get far less. We have Kirk ranked as WR18 this week and a solid start option.
With 34 yards, Kirk will log his first career 1,000-yard season, and he’s already set a career-high with seven touchdowns. He’s been more dynamic than Jones, ranking 28th in route win rate and feasting against zone coverage. More importantly, he’s been consistent for managers as he’s averaged 15 fantasy points per game without relying on major boom weeks.
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I’d take the higher on Kirk’s receiving total this week on Underdog Fantasy because Lawrence will need to rely on his favorite and most effective safety value. The Jets will bring pressure, and we should see Kirk get close to, if not exceed, 10 targets. He’s reached double-digit targets four times this season and has tallied at least 92 yards in each of those games.
This is an easy start decision with Kirk. There’s no need to go away from someone who has outperformed their draft slot all season. Stick with the WR10 as you push for the championship game.
