Losers of three straight, the New York Jets are now desperately fighting for their playoff lives after being defeated by the Detroit Lions on Sunday. With just three games remaining on the regular-season schedule, the Jets’ playoff scenarios look bleak in a stacked AFC.
The Jets’ Playoff Odds Have Them on the Outside Looking In at the AFC Playoff Race
Everything looked rosy for the Jets after they took down the Bills in Week 9. With a 6-3 record, New York headed into its bye with a 59% chance to make the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model.
Since then, the Jets have gone just 1-4, and all their losses have come by one score. New York’s playoff odds had dropped to 33% before their matchup with Detroit, and they now have just a one-in-five chance to make the tournament following Sunday’s loss.
Independent of the Jets’ results, the AFC playoff picture has gotten significantly more challenging. The Bills have already clinched a playoff berth and could secure the AFC East as soon as next week. New York has been eliminated from winning the division, so their only hope is to land a Wild Card spot.
But their odds there are slight, too. Both the Bengals and Ravens are nearly locked into playoff berths, and the second-place finisher in the AFC North will take one Wild Card slot. Thus, the Jets are essentially competing with the Dolphins, Chargers, and Patriots for two postseason spots.
Los Angeles has the highest odds among these four teams, and that’s largely thanks to their schedule. The Chargers will face the Colts, Rams, and Broncos to end the season. 3-0 is the expectation for the Bolts, but even a 2-1 finish would likely put them in the playoffs.
Jets’ Playoff Scenarios Need Them to Win Out
The Jets will have to win out against the Jaguars, Seahawks, and Dolphins to have a serious shot at the postseason. In that scenario, even if the Dolphins, Chargers, and Patriots won all the rest of their games, New York would still make the dance.
Unsurprisingly, the Jets’ most critical game will come when they travel to Miami in Week 18 for what will be a must-win contest. If New York beats the Jaguars and Seahawks but loses to the Dolphins, their playoff odds will drop to just 15%.
If Gang Green loses to one of Jacksonville or Seattle but beats Miami, they can still get in, but they’ll need a lot of help. Their postseason odds would be around 50-55% in either scenario.
Will Zach Wilson Start on Thursday Night Football?
With Mike White sidelined by a ribs injury after taking numerous hard hits against the Bills, Zach Wilson started for the Jets for the first time since Week 11.
Wilson’s numbers weren’t horrendous by any means. He completed 18 of 35 attempts for 317 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Among quarterbacks with at least 20 attempts in Week 15, the former No. 2 overall pick ranked 15th in expected points added per play, 20th in adjusted net yards per attempt, and 21st in success rate.
Wilson was near the bottom of the league in efficiency over his first seven starts of the season, so Sunday’s average-to-below results did represent an improvement. He made an excellent throw to tight end C.J. Uzomah off a bootleg that culminated in a 40-yard touchdown.
And yet, Wilson looked uncomfortable for most of the afternoon. He had trouble driving the ball, and many throws seemed to hang in the air forever. Wilson’s footwork was a problem, and his interception came when he threw the ball directly to Lions corner Jerry Jacobs.
Jerry Jacobs making it look easy for the #Lions 💥pic.twitter.com/h0A4zwAxUx
— Lions PFN (@Lions_PFN)
The Jets will face the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football, and the short week might force Gang Green to roll with Wilson. White, who wanted to play against the Lions, will reportedly be re-evaluated on Monday.
If White can suit up, I’d expect the Jets to turn back his way. At this point, we’ve probably seen enough from Wilson to indicate that he’s not the solution for New York. Given that the Jets are essentially facing three straight elimination games, they can’t afford to rely on the mercurial Wilson with so much on the line.
The Jets May Waste an Outstanding Defensive Campaign
If New York doesn’t end up making the playoffs, they will have squandered an exemplary defensive campaign. Robert Saleh came to the Jets intending to remake the defense in his image, and through two seasons, he’s largely succeeded.
Through 15 weeks, the Jets’ defense ranks second in yards per play and fifth in points allowed. They’re sixth in DVOA and EPA per play. Saleh’s defense is on par with the 49ers, Cowboys, Broncos, and other elite units around the NFL.
But the thing about defensive performance is that it’s inherently unstable. There isn’t a significant correlation between a defensive output from one year to the next. It’s much easier for NFL teams to bank on an offense repeating its previous season’s production than a defense doing the same.
Some of that difference is based on turnover luck, and the Jets haven’t been overly reliant on interceptions and fumbles this season. Only 9.3% of New York’s opponents’ drives end with a turnover, just the 22nd-best rate in the league.
But the Jets will likely suffer from simple regression to the mean, and they also could lose several key contributors to free agency.
Linebacker Quincy Williams, safety Lamarcus Joyner, and linebacker Kwon Alexander have all played at least 50% of New York’s snaps but are headed to the open market. Defensive line role players such as Sheldon Rankins, Nathan Shepherd, and Solomon Thomas are also scheduled to reach free agency.
Yes, the Jets will still have Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams, D.J. Reed, and other key defensive players on their roster. But this unit may never be this good again.
