Today, we break down this week’s football slate, see what the NFL weather report and forecast for Week 12 will be, and determine if any of your fantasy football players could be impacted. As always, good luck, stay safe, and let’s win the week!
NFL Weather Report for Week 12: Wet and Windy Conditions for the Early Slate of Games
All times are Eastern, and the NFL Week 12 weather report will be updated if any changes happen from the time of writing to kickoff. The NFL weather forecast for Week 12 is based on reports from the National Weather Service. All betting lines are from the NFL’s official website.
Denver Broncos (-1.5) at Carolina Panthers, O/U 36.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
This could quickly become one of the worst weeks of football in 2022. And believe me, that’s saying something. Not only do we have backup QBs starting for multiple teams, including here, but there will be widespread wind and rain thanks to a pocket of cold air that became detached and is trailing a pocket of warm, moist Gulf air far inland.
That’s the story in Charlotte, where 69-degree temperatures will feel great this time of year but not when it is accompanied by 14 to 16 mph sustained winds with gusts reaching up to 30mph. Unlike other locations, only the wind is a factor, as a 25% chance of precipitation suggest dry conditions.
As for the play on the field, don’t get your hopes up for quality football. Russell Wilson looks broken and has one finish inside the top 20 since Week 5, and he will be missing Jerry Jeudy.
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As for the Panthers, we get the return of Sam Darnold. Need I say more? Aside from that brief period at the start of last year, I want nothing to do with this passing game, including D.J. Moore (WR40).
Denver is No. 4 in EPA/dropback, No. 5 in success rate, and No. 4 in DVOA. The only players I have remote confidence in this week are Latavius Murray, D’Onta Foreman, and Courtland Sutton. Even Greg Dulchich has cooled off as of late but sits as a fringe-TE1.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns, O/U 42.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
It only seems fitting that Cleveland will be a part of the weather concerns as they have traditionally been one of the cities we look at this time of year. Although 50-degree temperatures for the area will feel relatively mild for this time of year, we expect a 75% chance of rain with rainfall amounts between 0.02 to 0.03 in./hr. The rain should taper off in intensity at the start of the game, but don’t be surprised if it’s raining harder during the pregame.
Along with the rain, you can expect winds too, which will be the case for most games this weekend. Sustained winds will sit between 10 and 14 mph, with gusts between 23 and 30 mph. This feels like conditions where the running backs should be active.
MORE: Week 12 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Recommendations
We know that’s the case with Nick Chubb. While he finished outside the top 24 for the first time last week, he remains the RB5 in fantasy while averaging 19 touches and 105.9 total yards per game. Included in that is a sneaky 3.5 target average over the last two.
Meanwhile, Rachaad White takes over as a starter for Tampa Bay, with Leonard Fournette being ruled out. White rushed 22 times for 105 yards last week and comes into the week a top-20 option. Since Week 6, the Browns are 31st and EPA per rush and 20th in yards per game. So long as the return of Gio Bernard doesn’t interfere, White could thrive in Week 12.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 43.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Different location, same problem. At least in Jacksonville, if it’s going to be windy and rainy, it’s warm at 79 degrees. There is a 40% chance of thunderstorms at kickoff, but I don’t think they’ll show up during the game. We have to hope there is not a lightning delay, though, that delays the kickoff.
That said, the story of this game is wind. Current forecasts are predicting between 15 to 20 mph sustained winds with gusts in excess of 25 mph.
Overall, I’m not entirely worried about how this game will impact any fantasy players once kickoff happens, assuming the pre-game rain is out of the area, leaving a wet field. The only person I could see being affected by these conditions would be Justin Tucker, who is too good to ever bench.
At this point, the running back split remains a question for Baltimore. Gus Edwards was a full participant on both Thursday and Friday, and in his two active games since returning from injury, he has averaged 13.5 rushes and 65.5 rushing yards. I expect Kenyan Drake also to be involved, but he likely takes a bit of a backseat to Edwards. Both backs come in as low-end RB3s but likely frustrate managers unless they find the end zone.
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-6.5), O/U 38.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
This takes a crown as the worst game of the week and might be the worst game of the entire year. Not only is Justin Fields not expected to play, but Mike White is getting the start after the Jets benched Zach Wilson following his performance last week.
Then we get to the weather. Expect 49-degree temperatures that will feel chillier thanks to a 100% rain forecast in East Rutherford. Not only that, but it’s going to come down somewhat hard at times, up to 0.08 in./hr. If there is one positive, the current forecast calls for only eight mph winds.
David Montgomery had a fantastic week last time out with 121 scrimmage yards and now has a touchdown in three of his last four road games. With Khalil Herbert and Fields both out, he will be asked to carry the offense. Unfortunately also has a tough matchup against the Jets, who, since Week 6, is eighth in rushing yards and EPA.
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans, O/U 42.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Nashville is no exemption to the weather forecast for Week 12. Luckily, we’re not expecting any rain, with only a 20% chance of precipitation. However, 58-degree temperatures will be followed by 14 mph winds and gusts reaching 20 mph.
The Cincinnati smokescreen finally disappeared, with Ja’Marr Chase ruled out. He’s not the only Bengal missing the game, as Joe Mixon has also been ruled out with a concussion.
Samaje Perine becomes an interesting candidate for fantasy managers after he recorded 15 touches, 82 total yards, and three touchdowns last week. Unfortunately, Tennessee is a brutal matchup, allowing the fewest yards per game and sitting second in EPA per rush. However, Tennessee has allowed the most receptions and the ninth most receiving yards to running backs. Perine’s value is solely based on volume but remains a low-end RB2.
Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders (-3.5), O/U 40.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Of all the weeks for the NFL to schedule a ton of indoor games, why couldn’t it have been Week 12? Instead of playing in the comfy confines inside of Atlanta, we are in Washington, and the weather reflects the location. 54-degree temperatures will be followed by nine mph winds, with gusts reaching 18 mph in the first half. There is also an 80% chance of rain, with hourly rainfall between 0.02 to 0.03 in./hr.
The weather also reflects the game itself, as it could be horrid. Atlanta is perfectly content throwing the ball just 20 times a game. Meanwhile, Washington sits 24th in neutral piece of play.
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Both teams also love to run the ball. Since Week 9, Brian Robinson has averaged 18 rushing attempts and 62.3 yards. Meanwhile, Antonio Gibson has finished as a top-24 RB in five of his last six games. Gibson is an RB2, whereas Robinson is an RB3 for Week 12.
With Kyle Pitts now on the IR, you would think this means Drake London would go ballistic — but this is Atlanta we are talking about, after all. He’s already 13th in target share and top-five in air yard share but comes into the week sitting 56th in routes run. I want to believe it can happen, but I cannot put London as anything more than a WR4 until Arthur Smith shows us something different, which he won’t.
Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5), O/U 47.5 | Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
For those around the country tuning in to watch his game, it will look exactly like what you expect Seattle weather would be. The current weather forecast calls for 42-degree temperatures with nine mph winds and a 100% chance of a light drizzle. Basically, it’s just depressing weather. No wonder grunge music comes from the area.
Oddly enough, this is a game I’m looking forward to watching. Geno Smith took over the kitchen and has been cooking — putting out feast after feast, not just on Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, Kenneth Walker has averaged 22 touches and 106 total yards since taking over the starting role with three weeks as an RB1. He also had a 23.5% target share last week, which made me chuckle as I recalled all the people saying he couldn’t catch.
MORE: Week 12 RB Injury Report
Josh Jacobs has been ridiculous this year. Despite the team drafting Zamir White, Jacobs is averaging 21.7 touches in 118.1 total yards as the RB4 in fantasy. He did pop up on the Friday injury report with a calf injury, but it doesn’t appear to be too concerning at the moment.
As for the receivers, Davante Adams has been everything Las Vegas could have hoped for and more since acquiring him. He has finished inside the top six in his last three games and, on the season, is No. 3 in target share, No. 5 in air yard share, No. 8 in targets per run, No. 4 in deep targets, and No. 3 in red-zone targets. Basically, he is Davante Adams.
This also feels like a top-10 week for D.K. Metcalf, who thrives against me and coverage. When Las Vegas dials this up, look for Geno to find Metcalf when he can.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5), O/U 46.5 | Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
Things have been hard enough for the Packers this year. They didn’t need the weather against them as well. Making the trek to Philly for Sunday night, they will be greeted by 57-degree temperatures that will feel chillier due to 12-15 mph winds. While there is no real accumulation expected, it will be a wet field due to the heavy rain during the afternoon and leading up to kickoff.
Stylistically this is a fascinating game and should be one of the better ones of the weekend. Green Bay has been starting to find some success through the air, especially throwing to Christian Watson, who has been putting up Randy Moss-style performances with five touchdowns in the last two games. Unfortunately, the Eagles are the best pass defense in the NFL. Unless he breaks a deep one, look for Wason to cool off a little bit.
NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Week 12 Games: Worry-Free Weather
After a week full of surprises, the rest of the Week 12 slate of games should be smooth sailing as it relates to the weather forecast.
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-14), O/U 46.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Yes, believe it or not, there are a few games where the weather will not be a factor. One of which is down in Miami. Unfortunately, I think it would’ve taken a hurricane for the Texans to slow down the Miami Dolphins.
Tua Tagovailoa has been on a warpath this year and enters the week as the QB7 with three straight top-five finishes. If only we could’ve seen this coming when they went all in by bringing in Tyreek Hill. Speaking of, Hill has been ridiculous. Here’s the WR3 in Fantasy with a 32% target share (second), 40.5% air yard share (third), and a 34.9% target per route run rate (second).
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Meanwhile, Jaylen Waddle is the WR9 in points per game with a 22.3% target share and ranks fifth and receiving yards and seventh in yards after the catch. Throw in Jeff Wilson Jr., and Miami is a juggernaut that will absolutely demolish the Houston Texans, who roll into town with Kyle Allen as their starting quarterback.
As for the weather in Miami, expect partly sunny skies with 83-degree temperatures and south winds of eight to 10 mph.
Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-15.5), O/U 42.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Speaking of backup quarterbacks, we get Bryce Perkins under center for the Rams, filling in for Matthew Stafford and John Wolford. Perkins has been taking first-team reps all this week, but that doesn’t really matter, as no one should be targeting any Rams players this week. Players like Allen Robinson, Cam Akers, and Tyler Higbee just don’t bring that much upside with a third-string QB.
On the other hand, the Chiefs are very good at football. Patrick Mahomes is a walking cheat code and will get back JuJu Smith-Schuster this week, who got in a whole week of practices and does not carry an injury designation into this game.
MORE: Week 12 PPR Fantasy Football Rankings
In his last three complete games, Smith-Schuster finished as the WR1 (WR7, WR8, and WR4) while averaging 8.3 targets, 20.1% of the air yards, and 108 receiving yards per game. He is a WR2 this week against the Rams’ defense that is no longer as scary as it once was.
Expect 44-degree temperatures in Kansas City with mostly cloudy skies and eight mph winds.
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (-8.5), O/U 43 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Well, here’s another lopsided contest. I’m not sure what kind of dirt Andy Dalton has on head coach Dennis Allen, but it has to be incredible for him to maintain his starting job. It’s that, or Jameis Winston is far more injured than reported.
Regardless, that hasn’t stopped Chris Olave from having a sensational rookie year. He had 102 yards last week and sits 18th in target share and fourth in air yard share (40.2%). He also leads the NFL in deep targets, which could be a massive factor, as that is where the 49ers can be exploited.
They enter week 31st in DVOA against deep passing attempts. Outside of Alvin Kamara, who is even being dropped in rankings do the difficult matchup, Olave is the only other Saints player I could recommend starting for fantasy in Week 12.
When it comes to the 49ers, there is nothing else that needs to be said. Start them all, regardless of the matchup. Jimmy Garoppolo is a borderline QB1, Christian McCaffrey is a top-three running back, Elijah Mitchell is involved in the running game again, and then you have the trio of Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.
This offense is a juggernaut. I’d love to watch the 49ers play the Dolphins to see the chaos — and we’ll get this opportunity in Week 13.
As for the weather forecast for Week 12 in Santa Clara, expect sunny skies and 67-degree temperatures with north northwest winds at around six mph.
Indoor Games in Week 12
Because these NFL games are indoors, the weather conditions can be controlled. As such, it’ll be optimal playing conditions for these teams. The passing and kicking games will not be affected.
- Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
O/U 48.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
