Our Bowling Green vs. Toledo college football betting prediction indicates the strength of the middle tier of the MAC as Toledo could be in for a surprise this week. The first team to clinch a spot in the MAC Championship Game is in action when the Rockets host the Falcons from the Glass Bowl on Tuesday in the final week of MACtion.
Bowling Green vs. Toledo Betting Preview
- Spread
Toledo (-15.5) - Moneyline
Toledo (-730); Bowling Green (+530) - Over/Under
50 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH - Predicted weather at kickoff
39 degrees, rain/snow showers, 2-3 mph winds - How to watch
fuboTV, ESPN U
Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays
- QB Dequan Finn, Toledo ($12,500)
- QB Matt McDonald, Bowling Green ($9,000)
- RB Jacquez Stuart, Toledo ($8,000)
- RB Peny Boone, Toledo ($7,500)
- RB Jaison Patterson, Bowling Green ($6,800)
- RB Micah Kelly, Toledo ($6,500)
- RB Taron Keith, Bowling Green ($6,000)
- RB Jamal Johnson, Bowling Green ($5,000)
- WR Jerjuan Newton, Toledo ($8,600)
- WR Tyrone Broden, Bowling Green ($7,100)
- WR Devin Maddox, Toledo ($6,800)
- WR Odieu Hiliare, Bowling Green ($6,100)
- WR DeMeer Blankumsee, Toledo ($6,000)
- WR Mikel Barkley, Toledo ($5,900)
- WR Cavon Croom, Bowling Green ($5,300)
- WR CJ Lewis, Bowling Green ($5,200)
- TE Jamal Turner, Toledo ($7,00)
- TE Christian Sims, Bowling Green ($6,000)
- TE Harold Fannin Jr., Bowling Green ($5,500)
Dequan Finn is the play for this game. As he returned to the lineup last week against Ball State, throwing three touchdowns, Finn leads the MAC’s top-scoring offense this year. He can be depended on in this tough matchup to score a few touchdowns at least, despite the defensive prowess from BGSU’s linebackers.
Elsewhere, Jerjuan Newton and Jamal Turner present great options from Toledo’s receiving corps. Newton wins with his speed and could find the end zone with his inside releases and ability to climb the ladder over the middle.
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Turner is a big, massive target that should hold a size mismatch over Bowling Green’s middle-of-the-field defense. He has seven touchdowns this year and has been targeted at least three times in six of his last seven outings.
For Bowling Green, the options are a bit more limited. Matt McDonald is usually a good bet, but with Kurtis Rourke playing for Ohio and Finn here, he’s QB3 on Tuesday night. Also, Toledo has allowed a MAC-best 11 touchdowns through the air, less than half the touchdowns that BGSU has allowed through the air.
You can find value elsewhere than playing Bowling Green pass catchers, or running backs for that matter, on Tuesday.
Prediction for Bowling Green vs. Toledo
As efficient as an offense can get, Toledo leads the MAC in offensive touchdowns while ranking third in seemingly every other category. Fittingly, their defense is nearly as efficient, ranking first in yards allowed per game and per play, while allowing the third-fewest touchdowns this year.
This has all led to the Rockets being the first team to clinch their berth in the MAC Championship Game, winning the West with their victory last week over Ball State.
Led by QB Dequan Finn, who soared back into the lineup with a three-touchdown game against the Cardinals, Toledo has the top offense in the conference. Finn has thrown for a career-high 21 TD passes this season and rushed for another eight scores.
Ball security has been an issue, however, and the Rockets are currently -3 in turnover differential. Bowling Green ranks second in the conference with 19 takeaways, as their linebacking corps has come into form as this season has worn on.
MORE: College Football Picks, Predictions for Week 12 Finds Early Line Value
The core group of Darren Anders, DJ Taylor, JB Brown, and Brock Horne have all done their parts at limiting opposing offensive attacks very well as conference play has worn on. Save for a lapse against Kent State last week, BGSU’s defense had limited their last three opponents to just 40 total points.
With edge rushers Karl Brooks, Demetrius Hardamon, and Co. crashing the edge, Finn will be forced out of the pocket all game long. The linebackers should be able to come up big in Bowling Green’s bid for an upset.
The Falcons don’t get the job done in the end, leaving their bowl-clinching victory on the table. Finn’s athleticism takes over and the rushing attack that is currently averaging 5.7 yards per carry leads them to a narrow victory in the end.
Prediction: Toledo 27, Bowling Green 21
