Cordarrelle Patterson emerged into the fantasy football limelight last week as he returned from a knee injury. Now, the question is whether fantasy managers should trust Patterson coming into Week 10 with limited rest, less than a week after the Falcons activated him from the IR.
Let’s take a look at Patterson’s fantasy outlook for Week 10 and whether Tyler Allgeier or Caleb Huntley could also have fantasy value on Thursday Night Football.
What Is Cordarrelle Patterson’s Fantasy Outlook for Week 10?
The concern for Patterson coming back from injury was around how many snaps he would play. That was especially a concern in these first two games, with both coming in a five-day stretch, fresh from his return from minor knee surgery. Last week, Patterson played just 24 snaps (39%), in contrast to when he played over 55% of the snaps in the first three weeks of the season.
It was good to see Patterson with heavy usage on those touches (13 rushing attempts and a target). His 58.3% opportunity-to-snap ratio is similar to what we saw in Weeks 1 and 3 when Patterson had over 100 rushing yards and a touchdown in both games.
Patterson’s efficiency in terms of yards per rush attempt was the lowest of the season (3.38). The result was just 44 rushing yards and nine receiving yards on his single reception. However, he salvaged his fantasy value by finding the end zone twice. It was good to see Patterson was the Falcons’ goal-line back again upon his return, handling all three of the rushing attempts in that region.
MORE: RB Red-Zone Attempts Entering Week 10
That goal-line usage means that even though the workload level for Patterson is uncertain this week, he should still have the potential for a double-digit return in all scoring formats. If you are playing in a Week 10 Underdog Fantasy best ball league, Patterson is an intriguing player to draft with this goal-line usage.
This is also a good matchup for RBs in terms of fantasy points. The Carolina Panthers have allowed an average of 25.23 fantasy points to the position this season, the third-highest in half-PPR scoring this season.
That number is heavily influenced by Joe Mixon and other Cincinnati Bengals RBs scoring 58 fantasy points against them last week. However, in their Week 8 matchup, the duo of Caleb Huntley and Tyler Allgeier combined for 130 rushing yards, 46 receiving yards, and a touchdown (26.8 fantasy points between them).
Three times in the last five weeks, opposing backs have scored more than 25 fantasy points against the Panthers. Therefore, there is certainly scope in this matchup for Patterson to have fantasy value. Entering this week, Patterson is the RB15 in Tommy Garrett’s Week 10 RB fantasy rankings. That emphasizes where he sits as a solid starting option in most formats this week.
Could Tyler Allgeier or Caleb Huntley Have Fantasy Value This Week?
It was interesting to see how the Falcons utilized their backs last week. Despite Patterson’s return, Allgeier and Huntley were still involved in differing amounts. Allgeier played 38% of the snaps, with Huntley at 21%. In terms of touches, Allgeier had 10 rushing yards and a target, compared to just seven rushing attempts for Huntley.
It would not be surprising to see this mix continue on the short week. Additionally, all three backs saw opportunities on around 50% of their snaps. That emphasizes the Falcons’ commitment to running the ball and establishing the ground game.
Based on what we saw last week, Allgeier figures to have a marginally bigger role than Huntley this week. However, seeing his touches move much higher than the 11 we saw last week would be a surprise. If you were projecting a 95% confidence interval for his touches this week, 15 would be the realistic upper limit.
With that number of touches, it will be tough for Allgeier to consistently produce 12-team starting fantasy value, where he needs to be in the 8-to-10-point range on average. He managed it last week with 99 rushing yards and 24 receiving yards, but that kind of efficiency is hard to rely on. When you add that Patterson appears to be the goal-line back, it caps the ceiling for Allgeier.
That uncertainty sees Allgeier sitting as the RB40 in Garrett’s PPR fantasy rankings for Week 10. That reflects his positioning as a risky 12-team Flex option this week. Nonetheless, it puts him in the frame as a potential Flex option in 14-team leagues.
Huntley is even tougher to trust, with his realistic ceiling being in the 10-to-12-touch region, with five to eight touches being the most likely projection. At that level, Huntley would need to find the end zone to provide value in anything shallower than 16-team leagues. Entering Thursday, Huntley is the RB51 in Garrett’s Week 10 fantasy rankings.
