Although this week is top-heavy, some of the undercard NFL games have some terrific value for bettors. One of our favorites is between the Las Vegas Raiders and Houston Texans. This matchup has some intriguing player prop bets on Dameon Pierce, Josh Jacobs, and Brandin Cooks. Plus, there’s more to consider, even if it’s weak at surface value.
We’re covering all sports betting aspects of this matchup, with lines courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook. Want to cash in on the NFL this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Raiders vs. Texans Player Props To Target
For this AFC matchup, we’re using every tool at our disposal to make sharp prop bets, including fantasy averages, player trends, and the best vig. Let’s dive into the best prop bets you can target.
Brandin Cooks Player Props | Under 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Truth be told, Brandin Cooks is one of my favorite non-stars in the NFL. He’s built a wonderful career playing a variety of roles that haven’t always put him in the best position to show off his fanciest skills. And yet, nine seasons in, he’s still one of the most consistent forces on the field.
It seems as though he found his one kryptonite, finally, in his NFL career: Davis Mills. The second-year quarterback has been dreadful despite the Texans finding a running game with Dameon Pierce. Cooks has seen his yards per reception drop from 11.5 yards in 2021 to a career-low 9.8. His catch rate is also a dismal 57 percent, and he’s producing only 47 yards per game.
And yet, we’re being gifted a magical 62.5 number that doesn’t make much sense considering his usage this season. Cooks has hit that number only once all season: Week 1, when he saw a season-high 12 targets. He has only 99 yards over the last three games combined.
The Raiders have allowed the 23rd-most passing yards in the NFL, but this is a large cushion to be handed. We must take the under on this prop.
Josh Jacobs Player Props | Over 84.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
After an unexpected start to the season for the Raiders offense that had basically forgotten running the ball exists, it turns out that Josh McDaniel hasn’t lost his touch. The Raiders rank fourth in the NFL in yards per attempt and are quickly becoming a very good ground unit. Josh Jacobs is in the midst of his best season yet.
MORE: Top Raiders vs. Texans DFS Lineup
With an average of 98 yards per game on the ground and set to face a unit ranked 30th in yards against and 29th in yards per carry allowed, Jacobs should have a monstrous performance. This could be one of those 125-yard games with multiple scores. I’m taking every over possible listed with Jacobs.
Dameon Pierce Player Props | Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Pierce doesn’t quite have the same advantageous matchup against a porous run defense as Jacobs does. The Raiders have one of the strongest run defenses in the league thanks to defensive coordinator Patrick Graham’s aggressive run fits and overhaul of their attack. They’re doing a lot more with less than they have in recent years.
But it won’t matter in terms of volume. Pierce is more likely to get 20 carries than any back in the NFL every week except Derrick Henry. Now with complete ownership of the Texans’ backfield and a healthy track record of production, it’s easier to have faith in the Texans’ willingness to rely on their star rookie. The alternative isn’t viable since Davis Mills is unable to lead a decent passing game.
The Texans’ offensive line has produced only the 49th-best run block rating amongst ball carriers, meaning Pierce is doing a ton of heavy lifting. Houston ranks only 26th in rushing attempts, but it’s because they struggle to extend drives. I’d expect them to continue to lean on their best chance to win this game: Pierce.
Davis Mills Player Props | Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-165)
With an average of only one touchdown in each game played this season and one performance that garnered a passer rating over 89, it’s safe to say the Mills experiment in Year 2 has failed.
Mills is a fine backup-caliber passer with a strong arm and good athleticism. However, his struggles reading a defense pre-snap and ability to deliver an accurate ball on time to his receivers have hamstrung this offense.
The Raiders don’t have a great secondary, but their pass rush is fierce. Even as Chandler Jones seems to just be cashing checks after he signed a large new deal in free agency with the franchise, Maxx Crosby has been going bananas with six sacks.
Considering he has only nine pass attempts in the red zone all season, I just don’t see how Mills suddenly becomes a big touchdown threat, even against a mediocre unit.
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