The Washington Commanders backfield is an intriguing situation for fantasy football managers, but are either J.D. McKissic or Brian Robinson worthy of a waiver wire add in Week 6?
Can any of the three be a consistent fantasy producer who is worthy of starting, or are they simply players to stash right now? Let’s examine the waiver wire potential of McKissic and Robinson for fantasy managers in Week 6.
Is J.D. McKissic or Brian Robinson a Waiver Wire Target for Fantasy Managers in Week 6?
We saw an intriguing mix when it came to the Commanders’ backfield last week. McKissic led the group with a 41% snaps share, compared to 32% for Antonio Gibson and 29% for Robinson. The workload split was reasonably even. Robinson finished with nine rushing attempts, Gibson had three with four targets, while McKissic had seven targets.
In terms of how their workloads went, Gibson and Robinson split early-down and short-yardage work, while McKissic dominated on third downs and in the two-minute drill. While Gibson is rostered in over 90% of leagues on ESPN, Robinson and McKissic are both rostered in just over 40%. Let’s examine whether fantasy managers should look to add either McKissic or Robinson and how they should prioritize them.
How Should Fantasy Managers Prioritize McKissic on the Week 6 Waiver Wire?
With Robinson returning last week, McKissic saw his second-lowest snap share of the season at 41%. However, some of that was game-flow related.
For almost the entirety of the second and third quarters, the Commanders were leading, which tends to lead itself more to Robinson and McKissic on the field. The bigger concern is that McKissic did not have a single rushing attempt in the game and had just his second single-digit opportunity game of the season.
In Week 5, McKissic put up his lowest fantasy output of the season, at 6.2 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring. McKissic has actually been remarkably consistent in half-PPR scoring this season.
In four of the five games, he scored between 6.2 and 7.1 fantasy points, and in the fifth, he scored 9.8 points. That consistency has been good for McKissic, but his value for 12 and 14-team leagues is limited to half-PPR and PPR scoring leagues.
In terms of average fantasy point output, McKissic is the RB53 among qualified backs in non-PPR at 4.88 points per game (ppg). In half-PPR, he’s the RB43 (7.28 ppg), and in full-PPR, he’s the RB37 (9.68). Those rankings in terms of average fantasy points give you an idea of where you should consider McKissic as a weekly starter.
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In full PPR, his weekly consistency of averaging at least 7.8 fantasy points makes him a fringe 12-team Flex option. Meanwhile, in half-PPR, McKissic is a fringe Flex option in 14-team leagues. However, for non-PPR, he’s at best a 16-team Flex option but is a more realistic weekly starter in 18 or 20-team leagues.
In terms of waiver wire priority, McKissic is down the chain. He needs at least two injuries even to be considered a lead back. Even then, Washington would likely look elsewhere for a portion of early-down work.
Therefore, McKissic is below the likes of Kenneth Walker III and Rachaad White in terms of priority. Those two have significantly higher upsides than McKissic as potential bell-cow running backs. His value is right there with that of Mike Boone and Robinson, depending on what you need.
McKissic is a weekly fringe starting option with limited upside. Boone should see some targets and may see a handful of rushing attempts, so he is marginally ahead of McKissic in non-PPR and half-PPR, with McKissic marginally ahead in full PPR. In terms of FAAB, McKissic is worthy of a three to five percent bid in 12-team full-PPR or 14-team half-PPR leagues.
How Should Fantasy Managers Prioritize Robinson on the Week 6 Waiver Wire?
In his first week back, Robinson split snaps with Gibson on early downs and actually led the team in touches and opportunities. His 22 rushing yards were a less-than-ideal output, but that is hardly surprising given we have also seen Gibson struggle on the ground this year (3.2 yards per attempt).
Gibson’s yards before contact per rush this year have been the lowest of his career at 1.8. That underlines the struggles we’ve seen from the Commanders’ offensive line in 2022.
The impact of Washington’s offensive line struggles may well be greatest on Robinson. McKissic and Gibson saw a combined 11 targets, while Robinson barely ran routes this week. Therefore, Robinson’s value will be hugely dependent on his work on the ground. For that to provide for fantasy managers, he’ll likely need to make defenders miss and gain yards after contact.
On top of those concerns, there is the current situation with the three-headed backfield in Washington. While all three of them are seeing snaps, it will be hard for any of them to provide significant fantasy value. Robinson’s split of the short-yardage work in Week 5 could mean we see him getting goal-line carries, which will help his value, but it could prove to be sporadic.
All of this makes Robinson a tough player to value on the waiver wire. If Gibson were to get hurt, he would likely dominate the early-down work, but McKissic will still be there to take away third-down and two-minute work, limiting Robinson’s upside.
Therefore, in terms of priority, Robinson sits below Walker, who is also an early-down threat but is so right now. He’s also slightly behind White, who has a clearer path to bell-cow touches.
If you need a potential Flex starter right now, then McKissic and Boone also carry more value. However, Robinson has more upside than either of them as a potential early-down back who could see significant goal-line carries.
Therefore, judging the priority of those three depends on your roster needs. Regardless of that, the concerns over the Commanders’ offensive line limit Robinson to a three to five percent FAAB bid right now.
