Sunday’s Week 5 NFL slate is filled with top fantasy football matchups. One of the most important and intriguing games is between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. So let’s dive into whether you should start Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins against the Bengals.
Should You Start J.K. Dobbins vs. the Bengals?
Since returning from a torn ACL in Week 3, Dobbins hasn’t exactly brought the efficiency he provided in his breakout rookie season in 2020. However, that hasn’t been all due to limitations Dobbins is facing, but rather an ineffective offensive line and scheme that is still relying far too heavily on Lamar Jackson. The good news for Dobbins’ fantasy managers is he’s getting valuable touches where it matters: the red zone.
In Week 4, Dobbins ran the ball 13 times and caught four passes against the Buffalo Bills. Despite totaling only 63 yards, Dobbins had two touchdowns. He faces another top-13 run defense in terms of EPA in Cincinnati this week.
The efficiency numbers for Buffalo are almost identical to the Bengals, which makes this a tough matchup for the Ravens but not one that’s impossible to produce against. The Bengals have allowed only one rushing touchdown on the season, but they’ve been vulnerable against pass-catching backs. Since Jackson has been willing to dump the ball off to Dobbins in these past two games, there is opportunity for the latter.
Entering Week 5, Dobbins is ranked at RB22 and No. 80 overall in our expert PPR fantasy football rankings. He’s so clearly the best option in Baltimore that he’s a must-start for most fantasy managers. The gravity of Jackson and the opportunity of this rush attack is simply too fruitful to pass up.
Our friends at Underdog Fantasy have modest projections for Dobbins. He has a rushing line of 50.5 and 11.5 receiving yards. With those numbers, it’s critical he scores a touchdown to pay off for fantasy managers.
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Since the Bengals have only a good and not elite defense against running backs, I like his chances to convert in the red zone. This should be a close game, meaning the best talent will be on the field when it matters. Both teams will treat this as a must-win as the AFC North is so close.
Everyone knows Baltimore is more than happy to engage in a battle of strength versus strength. Baltimore has the ninth-best rushing EPA in the league despite ranking only 15th in rush attempts. But they have the third-best yards per carry and offensive points scores thanks to Jackson’s playmaking.
To put Dobbins’ impact into perspective, he’s already scored the 18th-most fantasy points in the red zone amongst backs despite missing two games. He has seven carries and one target, which is a terrific pace for managers to see. Dobbins’ ability to own red-zone carries in an offense that only has Mark Andrews as another reliable weapon for Jackson is a unique aspect of Dobbins’ value.
The only situation you’re not starting Dobbins is if you have two-star rushers and a terrific Flex receiver. Even then, I’d argue Dobbins is a must-play this week.
