Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top plays for Underdog’s Week 4 Pick’em contest.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Week 4 Sunday games
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x even money or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts. The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s NFL pick’ems.
Adam Thielen lower than 50.5 receiving yards
This was the first pick’em that jumped out to me this week. Adam Thielen exceeded 50.5 receiving yards twice this season. But it’s important to take that in the proper context. He barely got there in Week 2 (52 yards) and needed garbage time to do it. Thielen didn’t catch a pass until the fourth quarter.
In Week 1, Thielen wasn’t close. In Week 3, he had a great matchup against the Lions but still had just 61 receiving yards. Thielen’s target share is nowhere near where it’s been through his career — just 17.4% this season.
Meanwhile, Justin Jefferson is coming off consecutive underwhelming outings. Kirk Cousins should focus heavily on him this week. I expect Jefferson to account for a good chunk of the Vikings’ receiving yards against a team allowing just 152.3 yards per game to wide receivers.
Thielen is just not a deliberate part of the offense. He should go lower than 50.5 receiving yards across the pond.
Dameon Pierce higher than 60.5 rushing yards
This was a recommended play last week, and we’re doubling down in Week 4. Dameon Pierce is coming off his best game of the season, a 20-carry, 80-yard effort. It was the second consecutive week Pierce had higher than 60 rushing yards.
Pierce has been on the field at least 60% of the snaps the past two weeks and is now clearly the lead back over Rex Burkhead.
The Chargers are allowing 4.6 yards per carry. Last week, James Robinson torched them for 100 yards on 17 carries. I like Pierce to once again turn 15+ carries into more than 60 yards.
Marcus Mariota higher than 17.55 fantasy points
Marcus Mariota is my favorite quarterback streamer this week. If I think he will do well for my fantasy team, then I like him to score more than 17.55 fantasy points.
Although Mariota has only topped this number once this season, he’s been close in some big games. He came last week despite just four rushing yards. Expect Mariota to be much better with his legs this week.
The path to Mariota surpassing 17.55 fantasy points is easier than most. He can realistically do it with only one touchdown. Something like 200 passing yards, 40 rushing yards, and a rushing touchdown will get him there. And if he finds the end zone twice, it’s a wrap.
Jahan Dotson higher than 33.5 receiving yards
Last week, I recommended Garrett Wilson to go higher than his receiving yards projection as my most confident pick’em. This week, that honor goes to another rookie, Jahan Dotson.
This projection just doesn’t make sense. Dotson had 40 receiving yards in Week 1 and 59 in Week 2. He only managed 10 in Week 3, but Carson Wentz played his worst game of the season, and it was just a terrible game overall for the Commanders. Despite all that, Dotson still saw eight targets.
Although Dotson is the clear WR3 on the Commanders, he’s on the field running routes more than almost every wide receiver in the NFL. Seriously. Dotson is fifth in routes run through three weeks. I will truly be stunned if he doesn’t manage at least 40 receiving yards, and we only need 34.
Elijah Moore higher than 43.5 receiving yards
My first thought heading into this week was to just avoid all things Jets. Zach Wilson’s return means we can’t really rely on anything we’ve seen thus far. Wilson’s tendencies are likely to be quite different from Joe Flacco’s. But, I just can’t resist Elijah Moore’s 43.5 receiving yards projection.
Moore leads all wide receivers in routes run. He’s totaled 49, 41, and 49 receiving yards, respectively, in each of his first three games. If you took Moore higher than 43.5 receiving yards each of the first three weeks, you would be 2-1. Yet, it’s largely been the Garrett Wilson show. Well, I think we’re getting a squeaky wheel game for Moore.
The Steelers allow the ninth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. This is a great spot for Moore to have a mini-breakout.
J.K. Dobbins lower than 37.5 rushing yards
The Ravens played it safe with their star running back, holding J.K. Dobbins out two weeks before bringing him back in Week 3. They didn’t throw Dobbins fully into the fire. He carried the ball just seven times for 23 yards, playing 45% of the snaps.
The Ravens have a 59% neutral-game-script pass rate. They really can’t run the ball other than with Lamar Jackson.
The Bills are a pass-funnel defense, allowing just 47 rushing yards per game to running backs, the second-fewest in the league. This game is just going to be an aerial assault. Dobbins may have more receiving yards than rushing yards this week. I think he struggles on the ground once again.
