Bijan Robinson has been a top-three fantasy football running back for two consecutive seasons. He’s one of the smoothest runners of all time and can run routes like prime Matt Forte. A true three-down skill set, here’s why the latest Robinson should come off the board is at the No. 2 overall pick in fantasy drafts.
Should You Draft Falcons RB Bijan Robinson in Fantasy Football?
Pick a metric and Robinson is probably elite at it. Despite playing on a mediocre Falcons offense, Robinson excelled in every facet of football. He was second in forced/missed tackle rate, first in yards per touch, second in yards created per touch, and third in yards per route run, to name a few. Robinson averaged 21.8 fantasy points per game, finishing behind only Christian McCaffrey.
Robinson posted 2,298 yards from scrimmage, which led the league. Yet, amazingly, there’s still some untapped potential with this already elite player.
Last season, Robinson was 10th in the league with a 70% opportunity share. He had 390 of them, with just 287 coming via rush attempts. Surely a back as talented as Robinson has a 320 carry/100 target season in him. Even another two opportunities per game would tack on another two points per game to his fantasy output. But that’s not even where he has the most room to grow. The real legendary upside for Robinson lies in the touchdown department.
Last season, 17.8% of Robinson’s fantasy points came from touchdowns. Among top-12ish running backs, that ranked last by a sizable margin. While it’s great that Robinson doesn’t need touchdowns to produce, they sure would be nice.
Tyler Allgeier siphoned off eight rushing scores from Robinson, four of which came from the one-yard line, and another two from inside the six. Allgeier is now in Arizona, but was replaced by Brian Robinson, who has a similar skill set.
Even with Robinson in town, there are other paths to an elite touchdown season. If Jahmyr Gibbs can score 20 times with David Montgomery in his backfield, so can Robinson. Either he can cede less work inside the five to his backfield mate. Or, one of these years, the Falcons offense can just be better overall, providing more scoring opportunities. Then there’s the scariest part of it all. What if both things happen?
Robinson scored 11 times last season. That’s outrageously low for the guy who literally led the NFL in scrimmage yards. Eventually, Robinson is going to have that 20-touchdown season. Imagine his numbers if he did not improve anywhere else/didn’t see any additional volume, but merely scored nine more times. That alone would put him pushing 23 PPG. Add in those additional two opportunities and now we’re at 25 PPG. And we’re assuming the legendary season is 20 touchdowns. He has the talent to one year get to 22, 25, or even 30. That’s the level of upside this player possesses.
Robinson’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
There is a very real case to be made for Gibbs at No. 1 overall. Our consensus rankings have it split with Katz putting Gibbs at 1 and Soppe with Bijan at 1. There’s no wrong answer. By the time any fantasy draft gets to the third pick, both running backs should be gone. They are the clear top two players in all 1QB formats.
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The argument in favor of Robinson is the usage. He’s never missed a game in his career. He’s never even on the injury report. He has true feature back size at 215 pounds. We’ve gotten consecutive 20+ PPG seasons despite playing on the vastly inferior offense while scoring far fewer touchdowns.
The argument in favor of Gibbs is that he’s on the superior offense, which is why he’s able to score more even with a guy like Montgomery by his side. With Montgomery gone, Gibbs could see more volume and have a historically great season.
Robinson vs. Gibbs is a fun debate to have, but the answer isn’t all that important. There is no wrong answer. Take Robinson no later than the second overall pick.
Robinson’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
The dynasty debate is similarly unimportant, but it does lean slightly in Robinson’s favor. There’s no age difference between Robinson and Gibbs, with both being 24 years old and separated by a month. The debate is whether it’s more prudent to take a similarly aged wide receiver. That comes down to personal preference in how you construct your dynasty roster.
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Robinson is undoubtedly a top two dynasty running back and a top five non-QB. Even in Superflex formats, there is an argument to be made for him as the No. 1 overall player, given that Josh Allen is already 30 years old.
We have Robinson as the No. 3 overall player in 1QB and No. 6 overall in Superflex. He’s the RB1 regardless, so this “lower” ranking comes down to positional value. Robinson likely has 5-7 elite years left, which is about the same number we can project for Gibbs, Ja’Marr Chase, and Puka Nacua. If you want to take Robinson over both of them, you will get no pushback over here.
In Superflex, it comes down to how many quarterbacks you’re willing to take over the best running back. That is entirely up to you.
