With the NFL officially back for the 2022 season, we break down the slate, see what the NFL weather forecast and report for Week 3 will be, and if any of your fantasy football players could be impacted.
As always, good luck. Stay safe. And let’s win the week.
Note: All times are Eastern Time. The NFL Week 3 weather report will be updated if any changes happen from the time of writing to kickoff. The NFL weather forecast for Week 3 is based on reporting from the National Weather Service. All betting lines are from the NFL’s official website.
NFL Weather Report for Week 3: The Windy City lives up to its nickname
Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-3.5), O/U 39.5 | Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
On the whole, Week 3 is relatively clear weather-wise. While next week could be a different story, especially for the Northeast, as Hurricane Ian fizzles out up the coast, the only location worth noting today is Chicago.
Unlike Week 1, which brought a deluge along with it, rain isn’t the issue (30% chance), but the impact of the wind is. The current forecast calls for sustained west-northwest winds around 20 to 22 mph that will be crossing the field rather than running with it. Gusts are the other concern, with speeds up to 30 mph expected.
I’d give a slight knock to the passing and kicking games, but luckily enough, Chicago is running an offense straight from the 70s. Justin Fields has fewer attempts (28) than Cooper Kupp has targets (29). In fact, even in a game where they were losing, they threw a whopping 11 times in Week 2. David Montgomery is a smash play this week as a high-end RB2 against a Texans rushing defense that has allowed 27.4 fantasy PPG to RBs so far. He is the only Chicago player who is startable until something drastically changes.
NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Week 3 games: Worry-free weather
After a week full of surprises, the Week 3 slate of games should be smooth sailing weather-wise.
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers, O/U 41.5 | Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
The time to acquire Chris Olave is about to come to an end. We never know when a rookie will have things “click,” but there is every reason to believe that is taking place right now. He barely missed a massive day in Week 2, where he led the team in targets with 13 but only had five receptions for 80 yards. The kicker is when we look into what could have been, as Olave had an absurd 320 air yards against the Buccaneers, accounting for 60% of the team total.
Not only was he the deep threat for Jameis Winston, but he also ran more routes than Jarvis Landry, and he was also the top target on third downs, showing the versatility and explosiveness that was a calling card to his game. He’s garnered a 22.5% target share thus far and is third in aDOT amongst WRs. Buckle up, folks, we could be in for one heck of a ride.
As for the Week 3 weather forecast, expect partly sunny skies in Charlotte with temperatures around 82 degrees and seven mph winds and gusts of 15mph with a 20% chance of precipitation.
Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins, O/U 52.5 | Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
This game is fascinating. Are the Miami Dolphins legit or not? That’s the question. Fair or not, they have to answer this one Sunday, and sitting dead in the center of this firestorm of doubt is Tua Tagovailoa.
We also know what the ceiling is for him and this offense after tossing six TDs and 469 yards against Baltimore last week. No one can ever take that game away. But this is Buffalo. This is the best team in the NFL, even without Micah Hyde. In 2021, they ranked No. 1 in EPA and allowed the fewest fantasy PPG, passing yards, and TDs to QBs.
So far in 2022, Buffalo limited Stafford to just 8.5 fantasy points in Week 1, forcing three interceptions. In Week 2, Ryan Tannehill scored just 0.88 fantasy points while throwing two picks himself. If Tua pulls it off again, he’s a weekly start. While everyone will be quick to bury Tua if he struggles, we have to remember the matchup is as difficult as it gets.
Miami’s Week 3 weather forecast should feature sunny skies, six mph winds, with highs near 90 degrees and a heat index in the upper 90s. There is also the typical 30% chance of light afternoon showers.
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at New England Patriots, O/U 44.5 | Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
I don’t expect this to be the most exciting game, as both Baltimore and New England sit in the bottom seven in tempo. While Lamar Jackson would be enough to keep this game entertaining, reports suggest J.K. Dobbins could make his season debut and have many fantasy managers eager and ready to plug him into their lineups.
Dobbins tore his ACL, LCL, meniscus, and hamstring in his left leg in last year’s preseason finale. He hasn’t played in a game that counted since January 2021. I would caution anyone before instantly inserting Dobbins into their Week 3 fantasy lineups. There is zero incentive to play Dobbins more than a few snaps as they get his legs back under him. Leave him on your bench, and hope he looks anywhere like the breakout candidate he did last year.
As for the rest of the weather forecast in Foxborough, expect mostly cloudy skies with eight mph winds and a chance of 18 mph gusts and 70-degree temperatures.
Cincinnati Bengals (-6) at New York Jets, O/U 44.5 | Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Olave is not the only rookie taking off. Garrett Wilson isn’t on the precipice of a breakout, it’s happening in front of our eyes. Safe to say, Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur felt the time was now to get the No. 10 overall pick involved in the offense. Wilson had a monster breakout game in Week 2, scoring 30 PPR points as the WR6 on 8 of 14 receiving with 102 yards and two touchdowns.
Through two weeks, Wilson leads the team in targets (24%), air yards (35%), and end zone targets (71%), and after watching his route participation jump from 56% to 72%, there is room to go still. We will have to re-evaluate the pecking order between him and Elijah Moore when Zach Wilson is back, but for now, Wilson looks to have the edge over his teammate. Fire him up in your Week 3 fantasy lineups.
Expect 75-degree temperatures, ten mph winds, and mostly cloudy skies in East Rutherford for Week 3. There is a 15% chance of precipitation in the forecast to start, which does increase to 40% but remains unlikely.
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans, O/U 45.5 | Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Sometimes it can be a little tougher to pin down the narrative for a specific game. That’s not the case here, as all attention is on the running backs. For one, we have to see if Josh Jacobs even plays. He didn’t make the initial flight with the team but did make it to Nashville on Saturday. If the illness keeps him out, Zamir White becomes the starter in what likely becomes an annoying committee. With that said, White would have RB3/4 value as a TD-dependant fantasy option.
As for Tennessee, will the real Derrick Henry please stand up? If anything, King Henry looks mortal. He’s averaged 17 touches and 53.5 total yards through two games and is the RB36 averaging 8.6 PPR points. Yikes. making matters worse is Henry is sharing opportunities with Hassan Haskins and Dontrell Hilliard. Throw in the loss of Taylor Lewan and facing the No. 7 rush EPA defense in the Raiders, and Henry is turning into the landmine of the first round of 2022 fantasy drafts. A worst-case scenario for those who bought into Henry’s return.
As for the weather forecast in Week 3, expect temperatures around 86 degrees and ten mph winds in Nashville, with gusts reaching 15 to 17 mph at times.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders, O/U 47.5 | Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
In a game full of passing narratives, keep a close eye on Miles Sanders this week for fantasy. Sanders sits as the RB13 through two weeks, averaging 17.5 touches and 95.5 total yards. Sitting 16th in opportunity share, Sanders is also 18th in weighted opportunities but has even more ceiling to his game if he begins to see more targets (8.3% target share, 31st).
The matchup in Week 3 is hard to beat. Washington is bottom five in most defensive metrics, allowing 155 total yards to RBs on the year (6.8 YPC). Add in a top-five offensive line and a defense that shut down the Vikings last week, and I want as much exposure to Sanders as I can get in Week 3 for my fantasy teams. He should be viewed as a high-end RB2Â this week.
Washington’s Week 3 weather forecast should feature mostly cloudy skies, 12 mph winds with gusts in the upper teens, and highs near 80 degrees with a 30% chance of rain.
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-1), O/U 41.5 | Sunday Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Sorry, Kyle Pitts’ managers, but this has not gone the way anyone expected. Sitting at 15th in targets (10) at the position, Pitts has just four receptions and 38 yards on the season. Meanwhile, Drake London is the WR14 in PPR, averaging 9.5 targets, 6.5 receptions, 80 yards, 0.5 TDs, and 18.5 PPR/game. Arthur Smith can say whatever he wants to the media, saying this isn’t fantasy football, and that’s fine. But if he doesn’t get Pitts involved now, that seat is only going to get hotter. One more week of this, and Pitts could very easily fall out of the top 12 in TE fantasy rankings.
As for the weather forecast in Week 3, expect sunny skies and temperatures around 74 degrees and six mph winds in Seattle.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5), O/U 41.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Go figure, in a game where two of the greatest QBs of all-time matchup, I am down on the passing game. But that’s what happens when you don’t have a replacement for Davante Adams on one side, and on the other side, basically every wide receiver is injured.
Instead, turn your attention to Leonard Fournette, especially for those playing DFS or are playing on Underdog Fantasy. He’s averaged 24.5 touches and 105.5 total yards through his two games this year. He’s third in snap share, fourth in opportunity share, and sixth in weighted opportunity among running backs. Fournette also ranks first in evaded tackles, 12th in yards created, and seventh in breakaway runs. Add in Green Bay sitting seventh in rushing EPA along with the wide receiver injuries, and Fournette has top-four upside in Week 3.
Tampa Bay’s Week 3 weather forecast should feature partly sunny skies, six mph winds, and highs near 88 that could feel closer to 95.
San Francisco 49ers -1.5 at Denver Broncos, O/U 43.5 | Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
San Francisco is cashing in their insurance policy with Jimmy Garoppolo taking over under center after losing Trey Lance for the season last week with a nasty injury to his ankle/lower leg that required season-ending surgery. But more important than the QB change is the return of George Kittle. He is the cog in the machine, which makes the 49ers’ offense tick from both a rushing and passing standpoint.
If history is correct, Kittle could have a monster game in Week 3. Since 2019, when Kittle makes his return after missing due to injury, he averages 8.5 targets, 7.75 receptions, 126.3 yards, and 0.75 TDs. The Broncos have allowed the fifth-most receptions, seventh-most receiving yards, second-most TDs, and rank 22nd in DVOA.
As for the weather forecast in Week 3, expect clear skies and temperatures around 70 degrees with six mph winds in Denver.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-1), O/U 39.5 | Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
I can’t say I had on my bingo card at the start of the season that in Week 3 the Giants would be favorites over the Cowboys on Monday Night, but that’s the NFL for you. Ezekiel Elliott (RB48 in PPR) looks like he has lost another step and is averaging just 13.5 touches and 5.9 PPR per game (RB50) while in a timeshare with Tony Pollard. He is a low-end RB2 in Week 3 despite the matchup. I’d trade him if possible, especially if he can fall into the end zone and gain some much-needed momentum.
Also, there are reports Michael Gallup could suit up. Don’t take the bait. Sure, Dallas needs him, but until we see Gallup playing on 70% or more of the snaps, the floor is too low for your fantasy roster.
East Rutherford’s Week 3 weather forecast should feature cloudy skies, ten mph winds with gusts that could reach the low 20s, and temperatures around 68 degrees.
Indoor games
Because these NFL games are indoors, the weather conditions can be controlled. As such, the only forecast and reports are that it will be optimal playing conditions for these teams. The passing and kicking game will not be affected.
- Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Indianapolis Colts
O/U 50.5 | Sunday 1:00 PM ET - Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6)
O/U 52.5 | Sunday 1:00 PM ET - Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
O/U 42.5 | SUNDAY 4:05 PM ET - Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
O/U 48.5 | Sunday 4:25 PM ET
