Austin Ekeler’s fantasy football value in 2022 is hardly a surprise as he comes off the back of three straight top-12 PPR per-game finishes at the position. The question is, where does Ekeler’s true outlook lay between his previous three years of fantasy outputs? Let’s examine Ekeler’s ADP in fantasy drafts, his outlook for the season ahead, and whether the value is right for the Los Angeles Chargers running back.
Austin Ekeler ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Ekeler’s current ADP sees him as a consensus top-four player overall and top four at the position, regardless of the format. Intriguingly, his ADP in non-PPR is the highest as the RB2. His ADP in half and full-PPR is the third overall player off the board as the RB3. Across the various sites, Ekeler’s lowest ADP is fourth overall on Sleeper and NFL.com.
Therefore, if you want Ekeler on your roster in a 1QB league, you essentially must have a selection in the top half of the first round, and really the first two or three selections. However, in a Superflex league, the elevated value of QBs pushes Ekeler into the back half of the first round or early in Round 2.
Austin Ekeler’s projected fantasy value in 2022
When you look back over the past three years of Ekeler’s career, it is somewhat tough to work out his true fantasy value. In 2019, he averaged 19.3 points per game (ppg) in PPR. That fell to 16.5 ppg in 2020, before rising to 21.5 ppg last season. Despite the rises and falls, Ekeler was a top-12 producer on a per-game basis in each of those seasons.
In non-PPR, the picture is a little different. The pattern is the same, with 13.6 ppg in 2019, 11.1 ppg in 2020, and 17.1 ppg last year. However, while he was a top-12 back in 2019 and 2017, he finished 2020 just outside the top 20 running backs.
You may then think that 2019 and 2021 would look the most alike. However, in terms of total touches per game, it’s 2020 and 2021 that most closely match. In both of those seasons, Ekeler averaged around 17 touches per game and 5.5 yards per touch for just either side of 95 total yards per game. How he got there was slightly different (more on that later), but the real difference in his fantasy output was touchdowns.
Predicting touchdowns is tough to do. Ekeler had 11 in 2019, just three (10 games) in 2020, and then had 20 in 2021. His per-game TD numbers were 0.69, 0.3, and 1.25, respectively. The difference in fantasy points per game is 4.14, 1.8, and 7.5. Huge variance that is almost impossible to predict year to year.
In terms of yards, Ekeler was essentially the same per game across the three seasons; within 2.5 yards on either side of 95 yards per game (9.5 fantasy points per game). For context, 9.5 ppg is an RB3 for non-PPR and an RB4 for PPR. So, in essence, that is the “floor” we’re looking at for Ekeler.
How have Ekeler’s usage patterns changed under a new coaching staff?
Ekeler’s snap percentage over the past three years has been 57%, 58%, and 65%. Under a new regime in Brandon Staley (head coach) and Joe Lombardi (offensive coordinator), Ekeler was kept on the field more often and carried the ball more than one more time per game than he had in 2020. He finished with 12.9 rush attempts per game, a 51.8% share of their 24.9 per-game number.
He was also third on the team in terms of targets per game with 5.88, a 15.2% share. However, that was his lowest per-game target number of the past three years, by just over 0.6 of a target per game. Overall, Ekeler saw a marginal rise in his touches on average under Staley and Lombardi, from 17.0 to 17.3.
Under that new pairing, Ekeler has 46% of the red-zone rushing work (46 carries), 48.1% inside the 10 (25), and 52.2% inside the five (12). Those opportunities resulted in 12, 10, and seven of his 12 rushing touchdowns, respectively. Ekeler was also third on the team in red-zone targets with 16 inside the 20, resulting in all eight of his receiving touchdowns.
So Ekeler had 46 red-zone carries in 16 games last year (2.88 per game). In 2020, he had 17 in 10 games (1.7). He saw 1.56 carries per game inside the 10 and 0.75 on average inside the 5. In 2020, those numbers were 1 and 0.2 per game. Additionally, Ekeler saw one target per game in the red zone last year compared to 0.8 in 2020.
That increased red-zone usage will naturally lead to a high proportion of touchdowns, especially the 0.6 per-game increase on carries inside the 5-yard line. It doesn’t completely justify the jump from 0.3 touchdowns per game to 1.25, but the different usage patterns supply some context. Additionally, every single one of Ekeler’s 16 rushing touchdowns in the past three years — and 14 of the 18 receiving touchdowns — have come on red-zone touches.
Should you draft Ekeler in 2022?
Ekeler is not your traditional bell-cow back. At 5’10”, 200 pounds, he’s 26 pounds lighter than Jonathan Taylor at the same height. Nevertheless, Ekeler’s taken to his role brilliantly, combining his ability as a runner with his skills as a receiver to be arguably the best dual-threat back in the league.
The concern is, though, are you taking Ekeler at his ceiling with his current ADP?
The answer really is yes, but this early in the draft, you’re really taking everyone at their ceiling. The key is to work out what their floor looks like if things don’t go to plan. For Ekeler, that answer depends on the format. His 5.5+ targets per game give him a tremendous floor in PPR formats. We saw in 2020 that even when he had just three touchdowns in 10 games, Ekeler was still a top-12 producer on a per-game basis.
That means taking him as a top-three player, your risk overall is minimal. If Ekeler plays to his potential, he returns his draft day value. And even if he struggles, he’s still an RB1.
Perfect.
The questions come in non-PPR, where without the touchdowns, Ekeler was outside the top 20 in 2020. But while there will almost certainly be TD regression, the red-zone usage numbers from last year are extremely promising. Sony Michel’s addition could reduce them a little, but Ekeler should remain a major contributor inside the 20, 10, and 5-yard lines.
Ekeler’s floor is also key on a weekly basis, and in six of 10 weeks in that 2020 season, he was an RB2 or better in non-PPR. Moreover, he was an RB3 or better 70% of the time. That is all you can ask for.
That security and certainty Ekeler brings are why he’s the RB3 across all formats in PFN’s consensus RB fantasy rankings. For me, he’s the RB2, above Christian McCaffrey, just because of the relative injury histories.
If you have a top three selection in PPR, Ekeler is a player I’m targeting. Taylor is still the RB1, but Ekeler is the No. 2, depending on how you feel about McCaffrey as a risk vs. reward option.
