James Conner’s fantasy football value has risen again coming off a superb first season in Arizona. With a new contract, he’s set to be the RB1, but are there underlying concerns? Let’s examine Conner’s ADP and determine whether he’s a good value in 2022 fantasy football drafts.
James Conner ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Conner’s current ADP in 2022 redraft formats is extremely similar across all three major scoring formats and across the different sites. His ADP in non-PPR is highest at 29, but his half-PPR and full-PPR ADPs sit 30th, and he’s the RB16 on average across all three formats. Comparing the sites, the majority have him between 25-32 overall as the RB13-RB16. The only site that falls outside of that window is NFL.com, where Conner is the RB17 at 37 overall.
On average, Conner is essentially locked in as a third-round pick in a 12-team league. In a 10-team league, it’s the third or fourth round, and in deeper leagues, he’s an early third-round selection or earlier the majority of the time.
James Conner’s projected fantasy value in 2022
When Conner went to Arizona last offseason, it was in a secondary role. He was, for all intents and purposes, a change of pace for Chase Edmonds. The hammer to Edmonds’ speed and elusiveness. We saw that early on when Conner was seeing less than 50% of the offensive snap share through the first eight weeks despite averaging a touchdown per game.
In those first eight games, Conner had just five targets. Then, Edmonds got hurt, and everything changed.
In the next five games, Conner never played fewer than 77% of the snaps and topped out at 96% in Week 14. He had five targets in Week 9 alone and had 26 in those next five games. Conner proved himself to be the No. 1, and the Cardinals rewarded him as such in the offseason.
Arizona let Edmonds walk, but they re-signed Conner. The deal was a three-year deal worth $21 million, with $13.5 million guaranteed. The Cardinals committed to Conner for essentially a minimum of two years with a one-year option. In the current climate, that is a huge vote of confidence for an RB.
The question now is, do the Cardinals repeat that pattern we saw between Weeks 9 and 14? Does Conner see 75% of the offensive snaps and 20+ opportunities per game? If he does, then we’re talking about a clear starting back every week, regardless of format.
The Cardinals have given themselves options for 2022
Conner is back as the No. 1 back, that is not in doubt. However, he can be the No. 1 in Arizona and still fall just outside of RB1 territory for fantasy. Last year, 15.1 fantasy points per game (ppg) made an RB a top-12 option in PPR. To be an RB2, they need to have 12.2 ppg on average.
In the first eight weeks last year, Conner was an RB1 twice and an RB2 four times — including one game where he touched the ball five times but found the end zone twice. In that stretch, he had 12.4 opportunities per game. In the next five games, Conner was an RB1 each time. He did that while averaging 17.8 opportunities per game.
In Week 15, Conner then had 10 opportunities and was outside of the RB3 threshold (10 points), but with 21 opportunities in Week 18, he was once again an RB1. So what we have seen is that when Conner sees 17.5 or more opportunities per game on average, he is an RB1. Below that and there is no certainty he is even an RB2 most weeks.
That is where Darrel Williams is key. He may be listed as the RB3 on the Cardinals’ depth chart, but he has a receiving pedigree. In the past three years, Williams has 102 targets and 80 receptions for 735 yards and three touchdowns. He’s a legitimate receiving weapon and could see a significant share of snaps. That could mean we see Conner’s playing time sit somewhere between the two situations from last year. He should have more than 50% of the snaps, but will it consistently be over 75%?
Should you draft Conner in 2022?
Conner is someone that divides opinion a little among our fantasy analysts. Ultimately, he sits as the RB15 in our consensus 2022 RB fantasy rankings across all three formats. Additionally, his ranking overall has him between 19 and 25, depending on the format. Therefore, as a consensus, we see his ADP as a slight value at the position and overall.
I’m the lowest of the group on Conner. He’s outside of my top 20 at the position across all formats. The reason is his efficiency as a runner and the reluctance to use him as a receiver until they had to terrify me. He managed just 3.7 yards per rush attempt last season and had just five in the first eight weeks.
Additionally, his fantasy value was hugely dependent on his 18 total touchdowns (third-most in the NFL). He scored a TD every 13.8 opportunities. To compare, Jonathan Taylor scored a TD every 19.2 opportunities, and Ekeler scored one every 15 opportunities. Among RBs, no one scored touchdowns more efficiently than Conner last season.
The combination of those things just screams regression at me. I still think Conner will be a starting RB most weeks, but for me, he’s a fourth or fifth-round selection relative to where the other backs ranked around him are going. The one case I would make for Conner in the region of the top 15 RBs is certainty. For the most part, we expect he will be in the region of 15 touches per game when healthy. You cannot bank on that for many backs.
Unfortunately, Conner’s ceiling is the concern. His season last year was such a perfect combination of things that it doesn’t seem feasible he can repeat it. Additionally, if his running efficiency does not improve, he could lose some of those touches later in the year.
Conner’s floor is good to start the year, but he has to be better than he was on a yards-per-carry basis last year, especially if that TD rate regresses as we expect it to.
