Kyler Murray’s ADP for fantasy football is fascinating as he comes off a top-four finish at the position. Entering his fourth year, is he a player we can now trust in fantasy after two strong seasons, or are the question marks adding up? Let’s examine Murray’s ADP for 2022 fantasy football drafts and how fantasy managers should approach the Arizona Cardinals QB.
Kyler Murray ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Murray’s current ADP has him as the QB5 overall, and no lower than a QB6 across the major sites. Positional ADP is the best way to evaluate a QB for fantasy drafts. That’s because their overall ADP varies hugely depending on whether the format is 1QB or Superflex. A QB taken in the top eight is usually a first-round pick in Superflex, but in 1QB, they can drop all the way down into the seventh or eighth round.
Murray is being viewed as a QB1 in both Superflex and 1QB formats. He is sometimes going in the top half of the first round in Superflex leagues, while he’s seemingly a consensus fifth or sixth-round selection in 1QB formats.
Kyler Murray’s projected fantasy value in 2022
What is there not to be excited about for a player who finished as a top-six QB in the last two years, averaging over 22 fantasy points per game across a 30-game sample size? The Cardinals have brought back a bulk of the team Murray played with, have reunited him with his college teammate, and have made perceived upgrades along their offensive line.
All of that should point to Murray being able to do exactly what he did last year, and for the most part, his ADP reflects that. Murray’s profile as a passer has shown improvement. He has increased his completion percentage year over year, and his touchdown rate has also improved, along with his passing yards per game and yards per attempt. His interception rate improved slightly in his third year, but most importantly, it didn’t get worse.
Equally, when you look away from the headline stats to the underlying ones, there’s a lot of positive. Murray’s bad throw rate is down year over year, and his on-target rate is up. His intended air yards per completion continues to rise, and he’s seeing fewer balls batted at the line of scrimmage. As a passer, Murray is going from strength to strength.
However, for fantasy ceiling purposes, there is one blinking red light: Murray’s rushing production. After having 819 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2020, Murray’s production dropped away massively last year. His average rush attempts per game dropped by two (8.31 to 6.29), his yards per game dropped from 51.2 to 30.2, and his rushing touchdowns per game almost halved (0.69 to 0.36).
Those decreases amount to around four fantasy points per game on average. That’s enough to drop a player from first to fourth or fourth to outside the top 12 on a per-game basis. If Murray continues to be hesitant to run, it hurts his ceiling, and his floor is reduced. He has to keep relying on his arm to overcome those decreases. So far, it has, but how much more improvement is left?
Will the absence of DeAndre Hopkins hurt?
Losing a player of DeAndre Hopkins’ caliber is always a problem for a QB. However, for Murray, the contrast has been stark. Hopkins has been in Arizona for two years and has played in 26 games with Murray, compared to four without. Although it’s a small sample size, there is a big contrast.
When Hopkins is playing, Murray averaged 1.8 touchdowns per game and just over 7.5 yards per attempt. He averages 260 passing yards on around 34 attempts per game. With Hopkins playing, Murray’s fantasy output is over 26 fantasy points per game.
Without Hopkins, Murray does throw the ball more (40 times per game) but averages just six yards per attempt and 1.25 touchdowns per game. His fantasy output drops by more than five fantasy points per game. We should stress though that it’s a small sample size, and there’s no control for Murray’s running in those numbers.
Just assessing the passing numbers and the drop is not so large. He makes up for the drop in yards per attempt by throwing around six times more per game. All told, it comes out to about 2.5 fantasy points per game lost in terms of passing. However, combined with the four points per game, we saw him lose in running efficiency, and it’s a high difference. Hopkins is out for the first six games, so fantasy managers should be prepared for Murray potentially struggling.
The Cardinals added Marquise Brown through a trade, which should help mitigate the loss. However, we have no way of quantifying what Brown’s addition to the offense brings. Maybe he can cover all of that lost passing production, maybe he can only cover half of it. I like to split the difference and think we could see Murray lose around 1.25 fantasy points per game in passing output during those six games.
Should you draft Murray in 2022?
Murray’s ADP for 2022 is not outlandish at all. He was a top-five QB last year and a top-six QB the year before. Taking him as the QB5 or QB6 is very reasonable. However, he’s an extremely boom-or-bust type player. That is both exciting and terrifying. The question is whether you can find a safer player with a portion of that ceiling later, and I believe you have two options.
In Tom Brady and Russell Wilson, there are two players who have a safer floor than Murray but also have the passing upside to achieve at least 50% of Murray’s ceiling. While Brady and Wilson may never be QB1 candidates this year, they are solid top-five QB candidates. There is a split opinion on Murray in PFN’s consensus 2022 QB fantasy rankings, but he generally falls into the tier with Brady and Wilson.
Of the QBs in that tier, Murray has the highest ADP. Usually, it’s never smart to take the top player in a tier. In 1QB leagues, why take Murray in Round 6 or 7 when Wilson and Brady are there a round or two later? That’s not smart drafting. You’re giving up more by taking Murray and another player in place of Brady and Wilson than you are taking a player in place of Murray and then getting Brady or Wilson.
In Superflex, the equation is different. There you’re not getting Brady and Wilson a round later, in all likelihood. In that situation, you pick your poison. If you want the ceiling play, take Murray. But if you want a high-floor QB1, take Brady or Wilson, even if it feels like a reach.
