Week 6 saw us turn our fourth profitable week of the season, even if at 3-2 was just a minor victory. Those two rough weeks in Week 3 and 4 mean that we are still down a third of a unit on the season, but things are trending in the right direction. Before we launch into the Week 7 NFL picks, let’s take a look at the lessons we learned in Week 6.
We had three winners last week, and each had a lesson. The first winner was in London, making it 2/2 going over in the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Given the recent trend had been for the games to go under in London, these two overs are worth remembering when the league heads back to Tottenham next season. What were the other lessons here? The Panthers’ defense is pretty solid. The Buccaneers offense can put up 20+ points even when they struggle. Finally, the Buccaneers’ defense is awful against the pass, which means there should be plenty of points in their games.
Winner #2 came during the game in Arizona between the Falcons and Cardinals. That game confirmed that both of those defenses are quite bad. This week it will be interesting to see if Patrick Peterson improves that, but if the Giants offense is short-handed, we should not read too much into this week’s performance. The final win came in Denver. What we learned there is the Titans and Broncos offenses are below average, and the defenses are pretty good.
As for the losses, the loss between the Browns and Seahawks in the first half was tough to swallow. However, the Seahawks defense is not very good, and their offense is superb. Taking the under in their games is a risky proposition until we see more from their defense. The loss between the Rams and 49ers was predictable once we found out the extent of their injury situations. Both offenses were depleted, and it showed throughout the game. This game never looked like it was going to go over, and that 49ers defense may well be one to fear after allowing 10 points the last two weeks.
Now we have learned our lessons, let’s take a look at our Week 7 NFL picks when it comes to totals.
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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
The Texans offense has exploded the last two weeks, scoring 84 points. However, they have also allowed an average of 28 points across those two games. Both teams should be able to move the ball in this game, and 50 total points should be a minimum.
The Colts offense has scored 24 or more in three of their five games, and now they are coming off a bye, which should allow their offense to be rested up. The Texans defense has struggled through large parts of the season, and this should be another game where they allow 20 or more points, the fifth time this season.
1u – Over 47 Total Points | -110
Los Angeles Rams at Atlanta Falcons
This might be the most fun game to feature on our NFL picks this week. The Rams offense was downright ugly last week, but for me, a lot of that was the 49ers defense. Since the bye week, the 49ers have allowed just 10 points total in their two games. In contrast, the Falcons defense is a train wreck. In the last two weeks, they have allowed 87 points and at least 20 points in every game this season.
As for the Rams defense, they have been shredded a couple of times. They allowed 55 to the Buccaneers before another 30 to the Seahawks. They should have allowed more to the 49ers, but for some sloppy play by Jimmy Garoppolo near the goal line. The Falcons offense has managed to average over 30 points per game the last two weeks and could do that again against a Rams defense, which has been less than convincing the last two weeks.
1u – Over 54 Total Points | -108
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
This game arguably could easily have been a playoff game last year had it not been for the Bears kicking woes against the Eagles. The key to this game is the location. If this was being played in the Super Dome, then we could be looking at the over. We saw two weeks ago that defenses, no matter how elite, can struggle a little on artificial turf. However, now the Bears are back home, on their grass, coming off a bye week. The game in London was the first time the Bears have allowed over 20 points this season, with opponents averaging just 13.8 points per game.
As for the Saints, their defense has been good this season for the large part. The last three weeks have seen them allow a total of just 40 points, and now they face a Bears offense with all sorts of issues. Equally, the Saints offense has had its issues, scoring 13 or fewer points three times. Their breakout games have come against three questionable defenses, which the Bears defense is not.
1u – Under 38.5 Total Points | -109
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans
This game may well be the one game of my NFL picks I will try not to watch at all. My approach this season, until it starts changing, is to take the under in Titans games. They have a decent defense, which has allowed 20 or fewer points in all six games this year. Meanwhile, their mediocre offense has put up more than 20 points just twice, and one of them was because of an opponent’s implosion as opposed to offensive ability from the Titans.
As for the Chargers, they have been reasonably solid on defense, especially against the mediocre offenses they have faced. Meanwhile, they have scored 20 or fewer points in four of their six games this season. With these two teams facing off, the under feels like a solid play. This game is likely to end somewhere in the region of 20-14 or 20-17.
1u – Under 40 Total Points | -110
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
This should be a fun Sunday Night Football game. Not least because the Eagles secondary is a disaster. Against teams led by actual quarterbacks, sorry Luke Falk, they have allowed 24 or more points in every single game, including 38 last week in Minnesota. However, offensively, they have also scored over 20 points in every game this season, and over 30 three times.
As for the Cowboys, their offense has stuttered the last two weeks and still averaged 23 points in those two games. This game should see them get back to their early season ways of scoring over 30 points, and the over should be a simple pick for us here to end our NFL picks article.
1u – Over 49.5 Total Points | -105
Ben Rolfe is a gambling writer and editor for the NFC South and North at PFN. You can follow him @benrolfe15 on twitter. For more gambling information and bets, make sure to get our All-Access Pass! Follow us on Twitter for more great content @PFN365.
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