One of the many young wide receivers in the NFL and fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers WR Chase Claypool projects to be a mid-round pick again as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals the top third-year players in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Harris’ fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Chase Claypool fantasy outlook for 2022
After a WR23 rookie season, Claypool had a season to forget in 2021. Hampered by the Steelers’ anemic passing game, which lacked any semblance of verticality, Claypool was destined to regress.
In 2020, he led all rookie receivers with 11 total touchdowns. The Steelers manufactured touches and found reasons to get their hyper-athletic WR the ball. The drop in scores from 11 to just two in 2021 is why Claypool’s WR37 finish felt so disappointing despite him averaging 2.7 yards more per game (54.6 to 57.3).
As a vertical asset, Claypool’s game was limited by Roethlisberger’s arm. Things could change with Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett in 2022 as the Steelers try to open things up a bit more. However, it is hard to see Claypool get back to the 13.4 PPR/game he saw as a rookie (11.1 in 2021). Also, it’s not as if 13.4 PPR/game is significantly moving the needle. That was enough for WR35 in 2020 behind Sterling Shepard and Corey Davis and would have ranked him WR33 a year ago.
Claypool’s lack of development is catching up
Claypool needs to develop more as a route runner. In fact, according to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, Claypool’s regression from Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the largest in his database’s history. Claypool was in the 27th percentile for success rate against man and press coverage. Against zone, Claypool’s success rate was just 68.4% which fell in the fifth percentile.
Even on go routes, his most ran pattern, Claypool found success just 44.9% of the time. In contested catches, something he needs to win given his size and route tree, he has been below 50% in each season — 46.2% in 2021 and 46.7% as a rookie.
Claypool is already at a tipping point as far as the fantasy community is concerned. While either Trubisky or Pickett might want to push the ball more, can Claypool take advantage? Based on the data, I’m not sure. For me, Claypool falls into the WR4 range as he is unlikely to see the volume needed to offset any inefficiencies in his opportunities. I’m inclined to let other managers draft him before I do for fantasy in 2022.
How the Pittsburgh Steelers depth chart impacts Chase Claypool’s fantasy projection for the season
It’s not as if Claypool will not have his chances. In fact, the Steelers’ depth chart looks quite different, and not just at quarterback. During free agency, the Steelers watched both JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington leave. Smith-Schuster joined the Kansas City Chiefs while Washington went to the Dallas Cowboys.
At first glance, it would appear Claypool is the locked-in No. 2 behind Diontae Johnson, who will assuredly lead the team in targets. But I am not quite as sure. Come midseason, if not sooner, watch for 2022 second-round pick (No. 52) George Pickens to ascend to the No. 2 role in the offense.
If he hadn’t torn his ACL coming into the 2021 season, Pickens could have been a Tier 1 receiver in this year’s class. At 6’3 1/4″ and 195 pounds, Pickens is a bit wiry. But from a skills and traits aspect, he checks every single box. His body control is superb, and he catches the ball away from his body as well as anyone. He is the future of the position for the Steelers.
Calvin Austin III will also be a name to watch as he works in the slot. He was a back-to-back 1,000-yard receiver at Memphis and is one of the quickest players coming out of breaks in the entire class. With that said, given his size (5’9″ and 170 pounds) and projected role, Austin is not expected to impact Claypool’s role but serve in a potential complementary role.
Claypool’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 104, Claypool is coming off the boards as the WR43 in half-PPR formats at the moment, placing him towards the middle of the eighth round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Claypool is also the WR48, as the 122nd ranked player. While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, I am even lower on Claypool. He comes in as my WR55 in my rankings and 135th player overall.
Based on what we have seen this training camp and preseason, the Steelers are moving Claypool into the slot. To me, that is a positive. However, that positive is canceled out as Pickens is proving to be the superstar I felt he could be, dating back to his freshman year at Georgia. He’s been not only one of the stars of camp for the Steelers but the NFL as a whole. That even translated to the field, with Pickens scoring a beautiful top-tapping TD in the back of the end zone.
Maybe it’s being caught in the moment, but I prefer Pickens for fantasy in 2022. He is a far more complete receiver, in my opinion. That’s why he is ahead of Claypool in my rankings as the WR46. He is going as the WR58 in drafts with an ADP of 143, over three rounds later than Claypool. I’ll take the better value and the arguably better player later in the draft or reach and take him at Claypool’s ADP as I am not the only one who is high on Pickens, and his ADP is steadily climbing.
