One of the many mid-tier running backs in the NFL and fantasy football, Seattle Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny projects to be a mid-round pick in 2022 fantasy drafts, as his outlook is up for debate given the team changes around him. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Penny’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP?
Rashaad Penny’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Healthy for the first time since 2018, Penny was simply electric at the end of last season. From Weeks 14-18, Penny averaged 18.4 rushes for 134.2 yards and 1.2 TDs per game. He was the RB1 in fantasy, averaging 22.0 PPR points per game.
Rushing for over 135 yards in four of five games, Penny has now posted at least 100 yards in six of the seven career games in which he received 12+ carries. That’s just a bonkers stat.
But can lightning strike twice? Because I wasn’t kidding about this being the first time he was healthy.
In 2018, it was a fractured finger before the season started and a knee strain, costing him two games. In 2019, he sustained a Grade 2 hamstring strain during practice and missed three games. Then, in the same year, Penny tore his ACL, ending his season. That also kept him out of the 2020 season, and he somehow missed the Wild Card game with a knee strain.
Last year, Penny injured his calf in Week 1 against the Colts and missed the next five games. Then, in Week 11, he pulled his hamstring.
Oh, by the way, Penny is currently nursing a groin injury but was able to return to practice. There is no way I can sit here and tell you I have the utmost confidence in a player who has yet to prove we should trust him. In the same breath, if Penny can beat the odds and stay healthy, he can dominate.
Unfortunately, I’m worried that despite the Seahawks rushing at the fourth-highest rate over the last three years, they are going to be such a poor team that nearly everyone loses upside. The injury risk is baked into Penny’s rankings, but he’s anything but a confidence-inspiring selection on draft day.
How the Seahawks’ depth chart impacts Rashaad Penny’s fantasy projection for the season
While Chris Carson was unfortunately forced to retire due to a neck injury he sustained last year, Penny didn’t exit the offseason unscathed. Not only did Seattle draft a running back, but they selected probably the best pure rusher of the class in Kenneth Walker III out of Michigan State in the second round (No. 41 overall).
A transfer from Wake Forest, Walker was a completely different back once he landed in East Lansing. On his very first carry as a Spartan, Walker had a 75-yard house call and eventually ended the game against Northwestern with 275 yards and four TDs. That set the tone for what was set to come from the eventual Doak Walker Award winner. Walker finished the season with 1,636 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns.
Walker was No. 1 in the NCAA in yards after contact (1,169) and would rank 19th in the nation in rushing using only that total. He was No. 1 in the FBS in carries of 10+ yards (46) and 15+ yards (30). Unfortunately, Walker’s NFL career is off to a rocky start as he may not be ready for Week 1.
After stating he had a hernia, Walker underwent surgery for…something.
“I don’t even know how to call that,” coach Pete Carroll told reporters. “I don’t know how to call what’s going to happen because it’s such an unusual circumstance that he has. He’s really tough, he’s making big progress every day, and he just feels more comfortable.”
If you can play 4-D chess and understand what he said, you’re better than I am. What I do know is someone likely could disappoint fantasy managers. Usually, having multiple high-end RBs is a good problem. That’s not the case in Seattle.
The Seahawks’ No. 2 RB under Carroll has seen more than 100 carries only once since 2017. That was Mike Davis with 112 back in 2018. That means someone is set to disappoint unless a philosophical change takes place, which is a possibility now that Geno Smith or Drew Lock will be under center. But we’re also banking on Carroll to change, something he’s struggled to do.
Penny’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 88, Penny is coming off the boards as the RB33 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him in the eighth round in 12-team fantasy leagues. For comparison, Walker is the RB37 at an ADP of 110, suggesting that even fantasy managers aren’t sure what will happen.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Penny is the RB37 and 86th-ranked player. Walker just edges him as the RB35 (81 overall). I’m in the same ballpark as PFN’s consensus rankings. I list Penny as the RB34 and 85th overall player, with Walker at RB39 (95). Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
There are two equally correct ways to approach this backfield. Either avoid it altogether, since two RBs fighting for the same reps on a lousy team only limits their upside. Or draft one and hope your coin flipped on the right side. In mocks I’ve done, I watch to see how far apart they go. Sometimes it’s over a round apart, but in other drafts, it’s back to back as managers wait on someone to make the first move.
Penny’s injury history is working against him, but so is Walker’s, whatever it is. If Penny can stay on the field for just 13 games, he can smash his ADP. But we know there is the risk you get nothing for this pick. Walker appears to be a safer pick and is skilled on his own. We just haven’t seen him on an NFL field where the speed is ramped up.
