Week 5 was the week we desperately needed with our NFL picks when it came to totals. After two 1-4 weeks, we bounced back with a solid 4-1 week, our second of the season. That puts us back positive in terms of pure picks at 13-12 on the season, but still marginally in the negative when it comes to cash returns. Now it is time to look at our Week 6 NFL picks!
Heading into Week 6, what can we learn from last week?
The Patriots defense remains legit, and the offense is good enough, but they probably aren’t going to be dropping 40 points on many opponents. The Buccaneers offense is a lot of fun and has so many weapons it will eventually get rolling. However, their defense is atrocious. The Bills and Titans offenses should be ones you always look to bet under their respective team and match totals, unless they are playing bottom tier defenses, then caution should be exercised. Oh, and it is very hard for them to make the team total too high if the Falcons defense is the opponent!
Now for our loss this week, the London game. I was at this game, and everything that could go against us did. We had a pick and a fumble setting teams up close to the opponent’s goal lines. Then we had a huge punt return that flipped field position, which really stuck the knife in for us. That game had all of the makings of being an under type game if you watched, bar those handfuls of plays which presented offenses with a short field. Overall, a bit of bad luck prevented us from going perfect in Week 5. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the totals NFL picks for Week 6.
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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Another London game, but this time it is a stand-alone afternoon game. Weather conditions could lead me to look at the under nearer to the game if the rain predicted right now settles in. However, this game has all the makings of being a high scoring back-and-forth type affair for me. The Panthers let the Jacksonville Jaguars put up 27 last week, and the Buccaneers have a superior offense to the Jaguars.
As for the Buccaneers, they do not seem able to defend very well. If we ignore the wet Thursday Night suck-fest between the Panthers and Buccaneers in Week 2, the Buccaneers are allowing an average of 33.5 points per game this season. Yes, London makes this a little crazy, but a 27-24 type scoreline should be the least to expect from a game with all the components to be a huge scoring entertaining Sunday morning thriller in London.
1u – Over 47.5 Total Points | -110
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals
I really don’t like trusting the Cardinals to help me out, but it feels like their offense is starting to click, and now they get another bad defense to take on. The Cardinals have scored over 24 points twice this season, both against questionable defenses. The Falcons defense is certainly questionable, having allowed 53 points to the Houston Texans on the road last week. Throughout the season, they are allowing a minimum of 20 points per game and have averaged 24.75 points per game without taking last week into account.
Then you throw the Cardinals defense into the mix, which has allowed a minimum of 23 points per game this season, with an average of 27.6 points per game. The Falcons offense has not been sluggish this year, they scored 32 last week and have over 20 points in three games this season. Against bad defenses, they can move the ball and put up points, so they should be fine against the Cardinals. These two teams may be bad, but this game should be a ton of fun to watch if you like a lot of offense.
1u – Over 51 Total Points | -110
Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns
I am going to switch angles here and look at only the first half of the game. Both teams are traveling from the West Coast to Cleveland, with the Browns having a day less of rest. Seattle has made this trip East for an early slate kickoff once this year already and came away with a win in Pittsburgh. However, in that game, they started sluggishly before the game exploded in the second half. Overall, 54 points were scored in that game, but just 17 of them were in the first half, with none in the first quarter at all.
As for the Browns, they have not had much success on offense this year, and when they did, it came in the second half of the Ravens game. I am expecting the Browns to come out of the blocks slow offensively, but their defense is good enough to keep the seahawks quiet early on. This might be one of those games to bet the under in the first half and then pivot and take the over in the second half.
1u – Under 23 First Half Points | -105
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
If you have watched these two teams play this year, then this feels too easy. The Titans offense was not the reason they put up 43 against the Browns in Week 1, and the 24 in Week 4 was more due to the disaster that is the Colts defense. As for the Broncos, they have only got over 20 points offensively once this season, against a Jaguars defense, which may not be very good. All four of the Titans last four games have seen the score end up below this line of 38, and two of the Broncos last four games have also seen less than 38 points scored. Unless you love defensive battles, this is likely not a game to watch much of this week.
1u – Under 38.5 Total Points | -105
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Now, this should be a fun game of football! Here are the 49ers scores this season: 31, 41, 24 & 31. That is pretty impressive, and arguably the 24 should have been more if they had not turned the ball over regularly. As for the Rams, their offense is amazing, with those three receivers causing havoc, a solid if less-effective than usual back in Todd Gurley, and a solid tight end threat in Gerald Everett. So far this season they have scored less than 27 points just once on offense, but have also looked quite leaky on defense at times. Against fully functioning offenses, they have allowed 27, 55, and 30 points in three of their five games this year. We have seen a couple of cracking offensive games of football in the coliseum over the last two years, and this game could be another chapter in that book.
1u – Over 51 Total Points | -110
Ben Rolfe is a gambling writer and editor for the NFC South and North at PFN. You can follow him @benrolfe15 on twitter. For more gambling information and bets, make sure to get our All-Access Pass! Follow us on Twitter for more great content @PFN365.
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