Many analysts view the 2022 NFL Draft quarterback class as weak, but there is certainly talent available. Still, with the recent moves NFL franchises have made this offseason, it seems they share the same view. Nevertheless, is North Carolina’s Sam Howell worthy of a first-round selection in April?
Will Sam Howell be drafted in the first round in 2022?
PFN isn’t here to waste your time, so let’s cut to the chase. Howell has the talent to be a potential Round 1 selection, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was. Yet, with the current lay of the land in the NFL and what the most highly respected draft pundits and insiders are saying, Howell seems more likely to fall to Day 2 of the 2022 NFL Draft.
PFN’s Chief Draft Analyst Tony Pauline has the same sentiment, agreeing on last week’s episode of PFN Draft Insiders (which can be found every Tuesday at 8 PM ET on the PFN YouTube Channel).
“I think he goes somewhere around the first 15 picks of Round 2. He’s good but he doesn’t have great upside,” Pauline said.
I recently wrote about how this offseason shows the league’s lack of confidence in the 2022 QB class. Major players in the quarterback market sent valuable draft capital for the likes of Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, and Carson Wentz. Meanwhile, others signed veteran options such as Mitchell Trubisky and Marcus Mariota to be their starters for the near future.
While the Ryan and Wentz trades — as well as every veteran signing — don’t preclude their respective teams from selecting a QB in the draft, it signals that they prefer to place their bets on the 2023 crop of signal-callers. That crop includes esteemed prospects in Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud.
Teams that could select a quarterback in the first round
As of now, the only teams who could possibly select a QB on Day 1 are the Lions, Texans, Panthers, Falcons, Seahawks, Commanders, Saints, and Steelers. Despite owning two top-15 picks, Houston’s front office seems content with adding talent to the roster and giving 2021 third-rounder Davis Mills a fair shot.
As for the Falcons (Mariota) and Steelers (Trubisky), each team signed a veteran QB to seemingly lead the offense this year. Both players are on two-year deals with low dead cap hits in 2023. Regardless, No. 8 may be too rich for Atlanta to pull the trigger on a passer. And unless one falls to Pittsburgh, who they are fond of (AKA Malik Willis), they may pass on the position entirely.
Meanwhile, the Saints re-upped with Jameis Winston and paid him handsomely (two years, $28 million with $15.2 million guaranteed). It may not be a long-term deal, but the money is significant. And at 18th overall, New Orleans may be better served building around the former No. 1 pick.
The Commanders, on the other hand, traded multiple mid-round picks for Carson Wentz. While that was ill-advised, they are adamant about starting him for at least a year.
That leaves the Lions, Panthers, and Seahawks. Detroit could take Willis at No. 2, or let the board fall to them at No. 32. There are enough developmental QBs in this class that there could be one they like that falls that far. As for Carolina, the Sam Darnold experiment failed, but the young nucleus is intact. Thus, providing a signal-caller of the future in the 2022 NFL Draft should be the choice.
And Seattle, well, Pete Carroll believes they can win around Drew Lock. Take that for what you will. Their philosophy leads me to believe they go elsewhere at No. 9 overall.
Wild card team that may select a QB
A wild card franchise that could draft a QB this year is the Philadelphia Eagles. They have done way too much research on available trade candidates — *cough* Deshaun Watson *cough*. With three first-round picks inside the top 20, they could select a QB if one they like falls to them. I believe Jalen Hurts can be Philly’s face of the franchise, but they obviously aren’t 100% sold.
It’s also worth noting that Baker Mayfield, Jimmy Garoppolo, and even Gardner Minshew are still on the trade block. Any or all of them could be moved before the draft, further changing the QB landscape across the league.
Howell’s NFL Draft projection
After throwing for 3,641 yards, 38 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions as a true freshman for the Tar Heels, Howell improved in 2020. He completed over 68% of his passes at 10+ yards per attempt for 3,586 yards, 30 TDs, and just 7 INTs. Coming off that impressive true sophomore campaign, Howell entered the 2021 season in competition with then-Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler for the 2022 NFL Draft QB1 mantle.
As we all know, neither lived up to expectations, with Rattler now a South Carolina Gamecock. Yet, Howell has legitimate on-field reasons for his steep drop in passing production. He lost two 1,000-yard RBs (Javonte Williams and Michael Carter) and two 1,000-yard WRs (Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome).
With so much firepower moving on to the NFL (although Josh Downs is a stellar WR in his own right), Howell struggled some in 2021. He tossed 24 TDs to 9 INTs while completing just 62.5% of his attempts for 3,056 yards. As a result, he fell down some boards but is still routinely seen as a top-five QB in the class.
Howell has the arm talent to be an elite NFL downfield passer and run nearly any passing concept. He also possesses the athleticism to burn defenses on the ground when needed (828 yards and 11 TDs in 2021). But the biggest issue with the UNC QB is reading progressions. If his first read wasn’t open, he would often duck his eyes and scramble. Additionally, UNC’s offense was primarily RPOs and deep balls, which is great for college but doesn’t necessarily translate to the pros.
Where Howell falls on NFL Draft big boards
Notably, ESPN’s Mel Kiper and Todd McShay, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler, and NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah all share similar views of Howell. He’s a top-five QB on their boards, but in each of their most recent mock drafts, Howell is absent from the first round.
On PFN’s Big Board, Howell checks in as a top 50 player, ranking as high as 35th (Chief NFL Draft Analyst Tony Pauline) and as low as 49th (Draft Analyst Oliver Hodgkinson). So, although Howell may not hear his name called on Day 1, he shouldn’t have to wait too long after.
