As 2022 free agent signings continue to be announced, dynasty fantasy football managers have continued to debate where WR JuJu Smith-Schuster should land, as it could substantially impact his value and those around him. With the recent news of Smith-Schuster being signed by the Chiefs, how does this impact his dynasty value, and what should be expected for the 2022 season?
JuJu Smith-Schuster’s dynasty fantasy outlook
Flashback to 2018, and some believed Smith-Schuster was set to be the next elite receiver in the NFL. Playing alongside Antonio Brown, Smith-Schuster’s second year was sensational. He was the No. 8 WR in fantasy (296.9 PPR) and averaged 18.6 points per game. Smith-Schuster led the Steelers in receptions with 111, was No. 5 in NFL in yards (1,426), and had 7 touchdowns. He looked like a can’t-miss player and saw a massive spike in value.
Unfortunately, he never lived up to that campaign. Now, Smith-Schuster is no longer considered a player who can be a No. 1 for a team and is a shaky WR3 in fantasy. In 2019, he saw a significant downturn in production after losing Ben Roethlisberger for the season after two games. Smith-Schuster was the WR65 on the year, posting 42 receptions for 552 yards and 7 TDs in 12 games. Things got better in 2020. He played in all 16 games and hauled in 97 of 128 targets but averaged just 8.6 yards per reception. His touchdowns (9) elevated his value, and he finished the year as the WR16.
2021 was another down season for Smith-Schuster
Then we get to last season. Smith-Schuster was hampered by not only an aging Roethlisberger’s arm but also by injuries of his own. A shoulder injury sustained in Week 5 ended his fantasy season, but he returned for the Steelers’ Wild Card game. In his four full games, Smith-Schuster had 15 catches, 27 targets, 129 yards (8.6 ypr), and no touchdowns (WR58).
Smith-Schuster took a team-friendly deal to come back to Pittsburgh but was unable to elevate his dynasty or NFL value. In his five years in the NFL, Smith-Schuster has finished as a WR2 or better (top 24) in 45% of his games. However, since 2018, that drops to 36%, with an average per-game fantasy total of 11.7 PPR. In all honesty, Smith-Schuster’s value is still riding on a season that took place four years ago.
Chiefs sign Smith-Schuster
While he is still young (25), it’s hard to imagine Smith-Schuster ever replicating his early success. However, a change of scenery might do him some good. Having been signed by the Chiefs, we could see Smith-Schuster begin to reestablish his value. At a minimum, his ceiling has taken a step in the right direction as Patrick Mahomes will be averaging far more than Roethlisberger’s 6.7 intended air yards per attempt (second-worst in 2021).
I don’t expect to see Smith-Schuster back inside the weekly top 24, but as a WR3/4 on your dynasty roster, he does make a lot of sense. Given the value of youth on a dynasty roster (which helps ensure you can compete for a more extended period of time), Smith-Schuster is an intriguing option to add both depth and hopefully upside as he starts the next chapter of his career with the Chiefs. He was one of the most intriguing free agent signings of 2022 in my book. Now, we’ll see how it works out.
Fantasy impact on Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, and Hardman
This move was one of the more predictable free agent signings of 2022. It seemed logical given the two sides nearly came to an agreement last season. After returning to Pittsburgh for the 2021 season, Smith-Schuster now gets to play with Mahomes. Talk about an upgrade in QB play.
As for his impact on Mahomes, there will be some, but it’s not like Mahomes really has anywhere to go. He is either the No. 1 or No. 2 ranked QB in dynasty. He’s posted 4,700+ passing yards in three of his last four seasons, averages 26.7 points/game, and has been a QB1 (top-12) in 69% of his games. He is the reason the AFC West is in an arms race. The addition of Smith-Schuster is just the icing on the cake.
Hill and Kelce remain top-tier options, Hardman a player to avoid
As far as Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Smith-Schuster is not being brought in as direct competition to them. Their roles are secure. Hill is the explosive weapon and one of the most feared receivers in the league. He is and will remain a WR1.
The same goes for Kelce, who finished as the TE2 last season, marking the first time he was not the No. 1 scoring TE in fantasy since 2015. They will remain the top two targets in terms of both volume and dynasty stock.
Kansas City’s complementary players, like Mecole Hardman, will feel the impact of Smith-Schuster’s addition. Towards the back half of the 2021 campaign, Byron Pringle started to establish himself as the Chiefs’ No. 2 WR. However, he is now with Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears. Smith-Schuster will now take this role as the Z, pushing Hardman back into his boom-or-bust role, which has become all too common.
Certainly, you can find stats that say Hardman was effective. But anyone trying to sell Hardman as a reliable breakout candidate in dynasty is lying to you. After all, there is a reason the Chiefs just signed Smith-Schuster. Follow the money — it doesn’t lie.
Impact on Trubisky, Johnson, Claypool, and Freiermuth
Personally, I was moving forward under the mindset Smith-Schuster would not be back in Pittsburgh next season. Honestly, who could blame him? When you had the opportunity to play with Mahomes, would you want to play with Mitchell Trubisky? That is the wild card of it all for everyone on the Steelers, from Najee Harris to Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Pat Freiermuth. Is Trubisky to blame for what happened in Chicago? Or is Matt Nagy at fault?
If it’s the latter, the Steelers have a bridge QB they can evaluate and decide if he is who they want to trust moving forward. My guess is Trubisky will be adequate, but adequate is not winning the AFC North when the other QBs are Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson.
That is not to say I am out on Trubisky or any other Steelers player. Let’s be honest — for as great as Ben Roethlisberger once was, he was a shell of himself the last two seasons. Johnson, Freiermuth, and Harris were fantasy gold thanks to their volume as they operated close to the line of scrimmage.
If Trubisky is willing to take a few more shots and add a long-needed sense of verticality, we might see someone like Claypool find a more stable footing in dynasty after finishing as a WR3 or worse in 68% of games since 2020.
2022 will be very telling for dynasty managers
Time will tell on what the dynasty value will be for Steelers players. Johnson has one year left on his contract and could be out the door. In a PPR format, he is still a very desirable receiver at just 25 years old, with 254 receptions under his belt in just three years. Claypool appears to be a buy candidate at just 24. Freiermuth is one of the best young TEs in the game and should be a top red-zone target. And Harris led the NFL in touches in his rookie season and will benefit from an improved offensive line.
Will the Steelers miss Smith-Schuster? I am sure. Yet, after playing most of the 2021 season without him, we saw what the offense would look like moving forward. As long as Trubisky is even a slight improvement over Roethlisberger, it should be smooth sailing for dynasty managers already invested in Steelers playmakers.
