As 2022 free agent signings continue to be announced, dynasty fantasy football managers have debated where WR Christian Kirk might land. It will undoubtedly impact his value and those around him. With the recent news of Kirk being signed by the Jaguars, how does this affect his dynasty value, and what should be expected for the 2022 season?
Christian Kirk’s dynasty fantasy outlook
Kirk didn’t exactly light the league on fire last year, although he had his best season yet in his contract year. The fourth-year receiver set new highs in targets with 101 (32nd amongst WRs), receptions with 77 (T-21st), and receiving yards with 984 (24th). Kirk also found the end zone 5 times, just one behind his 2020 total of 6.
Many wondered if the addition of Rondale Moore would have a negative impact on Kirk. It quickly showed that wasn’t the case. Kliff Kingsbury kept Moore up close with a laughably low 1.2 aDOT (average depth of target, which was last in the NFL). What really pushed Kirk to these new levels was finally getting him into the correct position on the field. After playing in the slot on just 18% of his snaps in 2020, Kirk was inside on 78% in 2021. This is his natural position.
Also, Kirk saw a more prominent role in games where DeAndre Hopkins was inactive toward the end of the season. From Weeks 14 through 18, Kirk was the WR17 in fantasy, averaging 7.8 targets, 5.4 receptions, 70 yards, and 13.6 PPR points per game as the No. 1 target.
This game-in/game-out consistency has been the issue for Kirk. In his four years, Kirk has finished as the WR58, WR40, WR50, and WR26. Averaging 10.3 games per year, he’s finished as a WR3 (36+) in 71% of his contests.
Kirk signs with the Jaguars
Perhaps Kirk needed a change of scenery. After a reportedly hot market for the 25-year-old receiver, Kirk has been signed by the Jaguars. He has a chance to find that much-needed consistency and elevate his dynasty stock from a boom-or-bust receiver to a potential low-end WR3. Kirk has a chance to be one of the under-the-radar winners of the 2022 WR free agent signings.
Now in Jacksonville, he can slide into this offense as the No. 1 or No. 2 receiver and perhaps see a more prominent role than he did last season (18% target share). It’s always a bit of a wait-and-see game for how long a player takes to adjust to/fit a scheme. Nonetheless, Kirk brings a verticality that translates no matter what. It’s not like the Jaguars just paid him to stand there on the sidelines. Kirk is still in the WR4 range for dynasty, but there is room for growth if he can become a more consistent weekly player.
Fantasy impact on the Jaguars
As noted above, it will be interesting to see how this aerial attack shakes out. Trevor Lawrence secures a young-but-experienced receiver to complement an array of solid pass-catchers. But will any stand out from week to week?
As fantasy managers, that’s what we want to know. And at this time, it’s difficult to understand how Kirk will produce alongside Laviska Shenault Jr., Marvin Jones, and perhaps even Jamal Agnew. And of course, we have to factor in 2021 rookie Travis Etienne, a running back who also might line up as a receiver.
If you’re looking for a top-20 fantasy wideout, this isn’t the ideal landing spot for Kirk. But if he can become a top-two target, he could offer streaming value in what should be an improved offense.
Fantasy impact on the Cardinals
Kirk’s departure and A.J. Green’s potential departure should open the door for a more dominant Hopkins as he crosses his prime years. Most notably, Moore should be able to flex his muscles a lot more. If he’s named a starter, he could be a sneaky flyer in what could become a much more top-heavy offense.
Meanwhile, all eyes will be on the draft, as Arizona must decide whether to invest in a young, high-upside receiver to give Kyler Murray another needed resource, especially when considering a good portion of last year’s offensive contributors are leaving. Murray’s status as a top-five fantasy QB might hinge on whether the team adds an instant-impact WR to the mix.
