Coming off a string of solid performances, Ty Johnson is making a case for deserving a spot in fantasy football lineups. With a Thursday night matchup against the Colts on tap, should fantasy managers consider starting Johnson?
Is Ty Johnson a reliable fantasy option in Week 9?
Over the past three weeks, Johnson has posted an RB1, RB2, and RB3 finish. Any of those outcomes is useful for fantasy managers, especially with many teams struggling to fill their RB2 slot. The problem is in how Johnson is maintaining his fantasy value.
In Week 5, Johnson touched the ball 6 times for a total of 38 yards. Fortunately, he found the end zone, salvaging his day. In Week 7, Johnson carried the ball 5 times for 6 yards — another unproductive rushing effort. This time, he got it done through the air with 6 catches for 65 yards. Last week, it was a similar story. Johnson managed 15 yards on 4 carries but caught 5 passes for 71 yards and a touchdown.
Ty Johnson’s production is outpacing his usage
The reality about Johnson’s production is it seems unsustainable. Unique game flows contributed to each of his fantasy-relevant games. In Week 5, Johnson touched the ball 6 times, but he found the end zone. During Week 7, the Jets faced a severe negative game script, with Johnson racking up garbage time receptions. In Week 8, Mike White attempted 45 passes, threw for 405 yards, and targeted his running backs 20 times.
In addition to not touching the ball enough to maintain this level of productivity, Johnson is not playing enough. His snap shares over the past three weeks are 29%, 32%, and 39%. I have difficulty trusting that Johnson can keep scoring fantasy points on such limited playing time and volume.
Johnson faces a tough test against the Colts
Last week, White made his first career start. The Bengals had no way of knowing White’s tendencies. The Colts have the advantage of watching last week’s game film and reviewing White’s target distribution. They’re not going to let him eat them up underneath with checkdowns to the running backs.
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Furthermore, the Colts have limited receiving production to running backs all season. Less than 13% of receiving yards the Colts allow goes to running backs. Johnson has eclipsed 17 rushing yards just once all season. If he’s going to be worth starting, he needs to either find the end zone or rack up the receptions. Relying on either of those two is a risky proposition.
Should fantasy managers start Ty Johnson on Thursday Night Football?
Johnson is a safe bet for 8-10 touches. If you need a warm body that won’t get you zero, Johnson is going to score at least 5-7 fantasy points. However, there’s a real chance he doesn’t score much more than that.
Unless you’re struggling with bye weeks and injuries, I’d lean against starting Johnson. I tend to err on the side of not forcing TNF players into my lineups unless I absolutely have to. Johnson is the epitome of a fringe player, so I’d lean more sit than start on the short week.
