The Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants on Sunday afternoon might not appear palatable. Still, when we look at individual and positional matchups, there is more than enough intrigue to go around. It all comes down to the availability of players on the Giants’ side come Sunday. They got beat to a pulp against the Cowboys, both by score and health.
On the Wednesday injury report, the score was: Giants 13, Rams 5. The injury report is like golf — the lower score wins.
Los Angeles Rams offense vs. New York Giants defense
The Rams’ offense is a well-oiled machine. It’s truly incredible to see Sean McVay put a game plan together that transcends quarterback play. After all, Jared Goff led this Los Angeles team to a Super Bowl.
Right now, they’re tops in dropback EPA and rank just behind the Chiefs in passing DVOA. They accomplish this despite Matthew Stafford ranking 15th in CPOE, something the All-22 exposes. The interesting part of the offense is the rushing attack. There is a large discrepancy between their EPA/play (20th), their success rate (14th), and their DVOA (sixth). That’s not something we see often, given the metrics are all somewhat related.
Defensively, the New York Giants are firmly on the struggle bus. No advanced metric likes the product on the field, and it’s tough to understand why it’s been so bad. After all, aside from the Dallas Cowboys, they haven’t faced a good offense.
Even if we ignore Week 5 against Dallas, they still rank 27th in EPA/play allowed. Slowing down the Rams feels like a tall task in the face of the Giants’ underwhelming performance to date.
Matthew Stafford vs. Giants defense
Before the season began, I may have called this a push or slightly leaning toward Matthew Stafford. However, with the disappointing defensive performances in New York, it’s impossible not to view this as a landslide.
The throws that have always been there in McVay’s offense are now being made simply because Stafford can and is willing to make the tougher throw. For instance, Stafford is averaging 9.5 air yards compared to Goff’s 6.7 in 2020.
Unless Azeez Ojulari and Leonard Williams can swarm Stafford, I don’t see him losing this battle.
Advantage:Â Rams
Rams weapons vs. Giants defensive backs
Adoree’ Jackson and James Bradberry should be a duo good enough to propel a defense forward, even against the likes of Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case so far in 2021. After seeing Giants fans go to war about Bradberry’s status among the league elite during the offseason, his pace slowed considerably.
Cooper Kupp plays like a man possessed. He’s underrated as a ball carrier, and we already know of his propensity to create separation. What we don’t always realize is he’s 6-foot-2, 205 pounds. Pairing Woods with him makes for a dynamic duo, averaging 169 yards between them.
Add in Tyler Higbee and Van Jefferson, and we’re looking at a quartet of prominent pass catchers.
Advantage:Â Rams
Rams offensive line vs. Giants front seven
The Giants have a couple of absolute dudes on the defensive line, but their linebacking corps outside of the injured Blake Martinez is an abomination. I’m not sure if he was tired or not, but Reggie Ragland is sluggish getting to the sideline.
Additionally, nobody is sacked less per pass attempt than Stafford. Meanwhile, the Giants are 28th in the league at getting to the quarterback on a per-attempt basis. So, even if we look at the players on each side and believe this may be an even fight, the results so far in 2021 say otherwise.
Advantage:Â Rams
Los Angeles Rams defense vs. New York Giants offense
If the Giants want any hope to win this football game, it’ll have to come from their offense, and more specifically, the passing attack. They’re only 15th in EPA/play both overall and through the air, but I think part of that was simply them feeling out the offense for a while.
The G-Men are eighth in passing yards per play, and Daniel Jones is playing the best football of his career. Unfortunately, the organization has failed to protect him with an offensive line, and Jason Garrett’s outdated offense doesn’t help.
The Rams are nowhere close to the unit they were in 2020. That makes sense, given they lost key pieces to the defense. The most crucial element may have gone to that other LA team. They’re currently flirting with being a bottom-third defense.
Los Angeles is pretty average on a per-play basis in terms of yards, but they’ve made up for that with turnovers. Heck, they’re even getting to the passer well. Ranking 30th in third-down defense can tank the perception of a unit — ask Washington about that one.
Daniel Jones vs. Rams defense
Of all the matchups I’ve seen so far this season, I might question the outcome of this one most. Jones has been turnover-prone early in his career, and the Rams aren’t strangers to causing them.
However, Jones hasn’t had those same issues so far this season. Aaron Donald always clouds the projection of an opposing quarterback. Still, with a knee injury, this might be prime time for Jones to use his athleticism to create when the pocket inevitably collapses on far too often an occasion.
Advantage:Â Push
Giants weapons vs. Rams defensive backs
Even with the loss of Kenny Golladay, this is a one-sided argument. I’m not entirely sure what’s going on personnel-wise in Los Angeles. Still, at least one defender (Terrell Burgess) is currently not getting snaps that excelled both as a coverage safety and a slot defender in his college days at Utah that I’d like to see play more than 1 snap in 2021.
And even though Jalen Ramsey is traveling with receivers on a matchup basis, I’d still prefer he play more snaps on the outside than he is.
Now, Kadarius Toney seems to be the real deal already as a rookie. Watching him play with the ball in his hands is therapeutic. He moves differently. Toney isn’t the same explosive athlete as Tyreek Hill or the physical presence of Deebo Samuel, but he moves so eloquently and with such efficiency that he’s tough to corral.
Sterling Shepard was the most productive receiver early in the season, and John Ross can take the top off any defense.
Advantage:Â Giants
Giants offensive line vs. Rams front seven
This one is laughable if you aren’t a fan of the New York Giants. There is absolutely nothing good about this offensive line if Andrew Thomas isn’t on the field. And even he has struggled relative to his draft peers taken after him.
Meanwhile, the knife-fighting Aaron Donald is on the opposite side, rocked up like a bodybuilder and as explosive as Composition C-4 (which is incredibly fun to play with in a controlled environment). Leonard Floyd has been affecting the quarterback to the tune of 21 total pressures so far in 2021.
Advantage: Rams
Betting line and game prediction
The Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants line currently sits at 9.5 points in favor of the Rams as of Thursday afternoon. This spread seems about right, considering the magnitude of the Giants’ injury issues.
Overall, it looks like a completely one-sided affair. However, if Jones can find some favorable matchups in the secondary and the offensive line can survive enough to at least allow him to escape pressure momentarily, they could keep this game close.
It’s also important to note this is a 1 PM game, and the West Coast team is traveling the dreaded three time zones. Historically speaking, West Coast teams struggle to perform to standard traveling that far East. Yet, recently that has changed.
Still, if the Giants field Toney, Shepard, Slayton, and Ross, I think they cover.
Prediction:Â Rams 31, Giants 24
