Washington Football Team running back Jaret Patterson is making the most of the opportunities he’s been provided during training camp and the preseason. The undrafted free agent out of Buffalo has drastically improved his fantasy football outlook. Is Patterson someone you should target at his ADP at the end of fantasy drafts?
Jaret Patterson’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Patterson is having an exceptional preseason so far for Washington. He has made a strong case to not only make the team’s final roster but emerge as Antonio Gibson’s backup.
A collegiate body of work and NFL comparison that should have you salivating
Did you know that Patterson was the only undrafted free agent this offseason that Washington signed? He had a stellar career at Buffalo, rushing for 4,155 yards and 52 touchdowns in 33 collegiate games. He had three consecutive seasons of 1,000+ rushing yards and 10+ touchdowns.
Washington head coach Ron Rivera has publicly compared Patterson to former NFL running back Darren Sproles. As Chargers defensive coordinator, Rivera watched Sproles thrive as part of the team’s committee with LaDainian Tomlinson for four seasons. Both Patterson and Sproles have a similar frame.
Sproles used his play speed, athleticism, and agility to succeed in both the running and receiving game. The 5’6″ and 195-pound Patterson could have a similar career trajectory behind Gibson. Let’s briefly discuss Washington’s backfield, the offensive line, and the offensive scheme.
Patterson’s competition for touches in 2021
Gibson led all rookies with 11 rushing touchdowns and finished fifth in rushing yards with 795 in 2020. He also averaged 4.7 rushing yards per attempt. Gibson is expected to see more targets as a receiver out of the backfield this season. We project him to finish 2021 with around 300 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets). This negatively impacts McKissic’s ability to produce this season.
Were you aware that McKissic finished 2020 with 106 targets and led Washington in receptions? This is unlikely to repeat itself in 2021 due to Gibson’s projected usage and the addition of receiver Curtis Samuel in free agency. Furthermore, Washington has Peyton Barber on the roster, who is Patterson’s main competition to earn a roster spot.
If Patterson can beat out Barber, his fantasy outlook would improve dramatically. If Gibson were ever to miss time, Patterson and McKissic would form a committee to fill the void behind an improved offensive line in Washington.
An improved offensive line and scheme in Washington
Washington will rely on three new starters in 2021 on their offensive line. In fact, the left side of the offensive line has been completely remodeled. Washington’s line was a pleasant surprise last season and a solid run-blocking unit. They should have another strong front five and even better depth in 2021.
Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner will lean heavily on the passing game with new quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick has finished as a QB1 in 47% of his active games since 2017. Washington ranked 25th last season in passing yards (220.8) and 25th in points scored (21) per game — they’ll be multi-dimensional in 2021.
Fantasy projection
Patterson projects for around 65 opportunities, 300 total yards, and 2 touchdowns in 2021. It will be difficult for Patterson or McKissic to have any standalone value while Gibson is healthy.
Jaret Patterson’s ADP
Patterson is undrafted and viewed as the RB112, according to Fleaflicker. Similarly, Patterson has an ADP of 271.15 overall in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship. On Sleeper, he has an ADP of 233.1.
Should you draft Patterson in 2021?
Yes. Patterson is someone to draft as the last running back on your fantasy roster. He needs Gibson or McKissic to miss time to have any standalone value. Still, nothing is wrong with stashing potential lottery tickets on your roster.
