Jimmy Graham’s fantasy outlook and projection for 2021

While he continues to fight off Father Time, Chicago Bears TE Jimmy Graham looks to produce another solid season in 2021. Can Graham crank out another TE1 campaign next year, what is his fantasy football outlook, and should you consider him at his current ADP?

Jimmy Graham’s fantasy outlook for 2021

Would you believe me if I told you that Graham, at 34 years old, was a TE1 for fantasy football last season? Well, it happened, and no one wants to acknowledge it. 

Graham was the TE11 in 2020, catching 50 of 76 targets for 456 yards and 8 touchdowns. Only Travis Kelce (7) and Darren Waller (4) had more top-two finishes than Graham (3). It also speaks to how quickly the decline is for “useable” fantasy talent. Graham was a top-12 TE in only 31.2% of his games (5). Furthermore, he was 14th in targets and receptions and 19th in yards among tight ends. 

What saved Graham’s season was his 10.5% touchdown rate — the eighth-highest at the position (minimum 20 targets). If you remember, about halfway through the season, Graham was leading the NFL in red-zone targets. He ended the year with the fifth-most (19), including 12 inside the 10-yard line.

Will Cole Kmet eat into Graham’s production in 2021?

However, things are not so sunny when it comes to Graham’s fantasy outlook for 2021. After averaging 69% of the snaps and 71% of the TE targets, Graham watched his reps go to rookie Cole Kmet. From Week 10 and on, Kmet averaged 5.1 targets per game and played on 85% of the snaps (35% in the first nine games). 

After Week 10, Graham never played more than 58% of the snaps and averaged 47% of the reps along with 2.1 targets (36% of TE targets) and 10.3 yards per game. 

Graham survived the rumors of a potential cut due to his salary and expects to be involved in the red zone once again. But is that enough? While he could have some games where he scores multiple touchdowns, Graham’s floor is extremely low. He is likely to play a more secondary role to Kmet for the other 80 to 90 yards of the field. 

Fantasy projection

When you create projections, you have to build a narrative. What is the team in question going to look like in 2021? How do the players mesh, coaches, SOS, losses/additions, etc.? I bring this up for the Bears as there are more questions than answers. 

For starters, at some point, there will be a change at QB from Andy Dalton to Justin Fields. More than likely, it occurs in the season once the crowd grows restless in Soldier Field. Once that change is made, the offense completely shifts on its head to feature a big-armed, dual-threat QB. 

Issue No. 2 is that Nagy, and even GM Ryan Pace, are likely to lose their jobs. They are both on the hot seat, and it’s hard to envision them surviving the 2021 season. I am already looking forward to Joe Brady coaching Fields in 2022, but that’s a topic for a different time. If Nagy were ousted, it would mean a change in playcalling. Which, believe me, would be a good thing. 

When the Bears per game scoring average jumped from 19.8 to 27.7 ppg, that happened under Bill Lazor, not Nagy.

There is a chance we see the Bears run more 12 personnel, as it was their second-most frequently used grouping at 19% (208 snaps). With that said, volume will remain an issue for Graham with the maturation of Kmet, who enters 2021 on the breakout list.

Still, I expect Graham to be involved in the red zone. But projections do not show a repeat of last season. Graham comes in around 25 receptions on 40 targets for close to 250 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2021.

Jimmy Graham’s ADP

According to Sleeper, Graham is currently the TE36 with an ADP of 270.0 in PPR formats. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Graham is the TE83 with a 303.7 ADP. Over on Fantasy Calculator, Graham is going undrafted.

Should you draft Graham in 2021 for fantasy?

Unless Graham can put together another 8-plus-touchdown season and hold off Kmet, I do not see a path for fantasy relevance. His lack of volume makes him far too touchdown-dependent. While the roster still needs trimming, Graham will likely make the final 53-man roster as the Bears only have him, Kmet, Jake Butt, J.P. Holtz, and Jesper Horsted at tight end. Butt, Holtz, and Horsted have 25 combined receptions in the NFL.

The offense will run through David Montgomery and Allen Robinson first, Darnell Mooney likely second as WR2, followed by Kmet and even Dazz Newsome and Tarik Cohen. 

Outside of a few touchdowns, which you never know when they will come, Graham could struggle to find production week in and week out. I would not advise drafting him — I don’t believe he is even the TE1 on his own team.