Based on name value alone, Detroit Lions rookie WR Amon-Ra St. Brown already has a step up on his competition. And let me be the first to tell you, he has the skills to back it up. As he enters his first season in the NFL, what is St. Brown’s fantasy football outlook for 2021, and should you consider drafting him at his current ADP?
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s fantasy outlook for 2021
I have been saying for years that Amon-Ra is the most talented member of the St. Brown family. Now, everyone else gets to see the same thing.
Pound for pound, St. Brown might be the most physical receiver in the class. At 5’11” and 197 pounds, he was more than willing to run over the middle and take hits from defenders. Several times he was the one left standing. You would expect this from the son of a former two-time Mr. Universe. St. Brown plays the game with an intensity that few can match on the field.
He blends a hard-nosed playstyle with one of the most polished route trees in the class. Even in a loaded wide receiver group, the former Trojan is firmly in the mix to be one of the most productive players early on.
I was losing my mind watching him fall in the 2021 NFL Draft. While the team itself is not great, the landing spot is not as bad as some make it out to be. The Lions need substantial help at receiver. In fact, they enter 2021 with the most vacated targets of any team due to the massive turnover at the receiver position.
Due to this, St. Brown has a real opportunity in front of him. Even on a poor offense, landing a team’s WR1 is a valuable commodity in fantasy. When you glance at the Lions’ depth chart, it’s hard not to get excited for St. Brown. He could be the leading receiver for them in 2021. Given where he is currently going in drafts, St. Brown could be one of the biggest steals of the fantasy season.
Fantasy projection
No team is undergoing more changes than the Lions are in 2021. Sure, it’s not a flashy name like Aaron Rodgers to paste on the headline, but there are several unanswered questions.
First, what is the new offense going to look like this season? While Dan Campbell will be biting off knee caps, the offense and how it operates will be OC Anthony Lynn’s responsibility. Lynn was previously the Los Angeles Chargers head coach.Â
Lynn has shown the ability to change his offense to fit his personnel. If we look at the Lions, their strengths are on the offensive line and at running back. So long as the Lions are staying in games with opponents, I would expect to see an offense that works through the backfield. It should be a mix of a steady dose of rushes with D’Andre Swift and backfield targets to him and Jamaal Williams.
In turn, that will help set up play-action, which aligns with Jared Goff’s wheelhouse thus far in his NFL career. However, we do not know how much of Goff’s success was down to his skills or that of Sean McVay in his ear dissecting the defense from the sidelines.Â
How will the receiver depth chart shake out?
The other talking point will be the distribution of targets and how the WR room shakes out. Following the losses of Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and Danny Amendola, the Lions lead the NFL in vacated targets (64.1%), targets inside the 10-yard line (50%), and intended air yards (72.3%).
While the Lions brought in Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams, St. Brown’s route running could easily make him the top option for Jared Goff. Furthermore, St. Brown could compete with T.J. Hockenson for the most targets on the team.
Early projections have St. Brown ready to crush his ADP, receiving around 110 targets, 65-70 receptions, 800 yards, and 4-5 touchdowns.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s ADP
According to Sleeper, St. Brown is currently being drafted at an ADP of 173.3 in half-PPR formats. On Fleaflicker, his ADP is currently 185.3. Similarly, on NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), St. Brown has an ADP of 186.49.
Should you draft Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2021 for fantasy?
St. Brown is the cheapest WR1 there is in fantasy. Plain and simple. While it may take a few weeks for the depth chart to sort itself out, I fully believe his skill set will separate him from the rest. It also helps that the Lions will be losing a lot of games in 2021. As a team likely contending for the No. 1 overall draft pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, this means a ton of garbage time.Â
Although St. Brown will likely struggle to score, his volume will help offset this as he becomes a weekly flex option in 2021. The value makes him an auto pick for me in later rounds of fantasy drafts.
