PFN’s Ian Cummings named five fades on The Hot List: A.J. Brown at 20.6, Malik Nabers at 29.2, Cam Skattebo at 38.2, Carnell Tate at 69.2 and Sam LaPorta at 71.2 in PFN’s mock draft simulator. I would fade four of them.
Why A.J. Brown Is A Must-Fade
Cummings’ case is that Mike Vrabel teams do not throw. By Cummings’ count, Vrabel’s Titans finished 31st, 30th, 30th, 31st, 27th and 24th in pass rate from 2018 through 2023. Those are real numbers. They are also the wrong ones.
The Patriots won 14 games and played in Super Bowl LX, and teams that lead all year run the ball in the fourth quarter. Josh McDaniels’ offense finished 26th in pass rate and 18th in neutral pass rate, but fifth in pass rate over expected and sixth in red zone pass rate over expected. New England threw when the situation called for it. Brown gets those situations.
Cummings’ other argument is age. “The average change in career best season points per game for notable wide receivers before and after 29 years old is -10.7%,” he said, citing PFN’s Jason Katz. Brown is 29, he was slow to connect with Drake Maye in camp, and Romeo Doubs arrived on a four-year, $68 million deal. Brown also caught 78 passes for 1,003 yards and seven touchdowns and finished WR12 in points per game, his fifth top-12 finish in six seasons. Maye led the NFL in completion rate and yards per attempt. I will take that trade at 20.6.
Malik Nabers Still Has Boxes to Check
PFN’s board has Nabers 19th, well ahead of where he is going. “The upside is certainly there, and the volume should be there in the passing game, but only with availability as a prerequisite,” Cummings said. Nabers tore his right ACL in Week 4 against the Chargers, needed a second procedure to clean up scar tissue, and has not played a preseason snap. “There are still some things that you’re going to have to check off the box for you to participate,” Nabers said last week. New York hosts Dallas on Sunday night.
The rest of it works too. Cummings is right that John Harbaugh’s Baltimore offenses ran, Jaxson Dart runs, and the Giants signed Najee Harris in August. Behind Nabers on the 53 are Darius Slayton, Darnell Mooney, Odell Beckham Jr. and third-round rookie Malachi Fields, so the targets are there whenever he plays. The problem is whenever it’s at 29.2.
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LaPorta is the same bet with less payoff. “If I can get guys like [Dalton Kincaid, Brenton Strange, Dallas Goedert or Juwan Johnson] 40-plus picks later, that’s a shot that I’m taking,” Cummings said. LaPorta caught 40 passes for 489 yards and three touchdowns in nine games last year before back surgery ended his season, then missed August practice time with a hip. He returned Aug. 25.
Carnell Tate is where I would go a step further. “The reason I’m fading Tate mainly comes down to the uncertainty between him and Cam Ward,” Cummings said. Tate played 38 offensive snaps this preseason and caught none of his six targets. He went fourth overall, but Cummings left out Calvin Ridley. Wan’Dale Robinson has the slot. Brian Daboll is calling plays for a quarterback entering year two.
Cam Skattebo’s Competition Signed for the Minimum
Cam Skattebo is where Cummings and PFN’s own board agree, and they have him 54th. His argument is the room: Tyrone Tracy Jr., Devin Singletary and Najee Harris. Harris signed a one-year minimum deal worth $1.215 million with no guaranteed money 11 months after tearing his Achilles. Skattebo sat alone atop the unofficial depth chart for the preseason finale.
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The health case is the stronger one. “Skattebo’s self-preservation skills are fairly poor,” Cummings said, and the Week 8 ankle bore that out. He dislocated the ankle, fractured his tibia and fibula and ruptured a deltoid ligament, and missed nine games. When he played, from Week 2 through Week 7, he averaged 16.0 carries and 4.7 targets. Harbaugh wants to run it. I will pay 38.2 for that.
