Twelve months ago, managers were debating where Brian Thomas Jr. ranked among the position league-wide. Now the debate is about where he ranks in his own receiver room, and that gap between the hype and the price is exactly why he’s worth buying.
I’m not projecting a repeat of the rookie explosion. I do think Thomas is still the WR1 in this offense, and the discount attached to his name after last season makes him one of the better value plays at the position.
Should You Draft Brian Thomas Jr. in Fantasy Football?
The box score from last season is rough to look at. Thomas managed a single top-12 week and three top-24 finishes, two fewer top-24 weeks than Parker Washington, a teammate who was barely on the fantasy radar a year earlier.
That’s brutal. That’s brutal for any player, never mind one who had a real claim to be considered one of the most promising in the sport after a dynamic rookie campaign. The red-zone usage is what really stood out in trying to explain the dismal performance.
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Thomas’ red-zone target rate fell from 28.6% as a rookie to 9.4% last season, a collapse that took away the easiest scoring chances an offense can hand a receiver. Layer in that 46.2% of his targets last season traveled 15 or more yards downfield, up from 31.6% as a rookie, and the profile looks a lot like Gabe Davis of years past.
He was pigeon-holed into needing explosive plays instead of paying the bills closer to the goal line, a role shift that introduces a floor that didn’t seem fathomable after 2024.
Even accounting for that swing, I’m buying the talent and the direction of this offense. Thomas’ rookie tape was more encouraging than his second season was discouraging, and Jacksonville’s passing game gives him a real path back. The discount is driving my stance. Drafting a player with this kind of downside gets a lot easier when he’s not costing you a premium pick: load up on stable profiles early and roll the dice on BTJ.
Preseason Fantasy WR Rankings
- Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
- Puka Nacua | LAR
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
- Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
- Drake London | ATL
- Justin Jefferson | MIN
- CeeDee Lamb | DAL
- Nico Collins | HOU
- A.J. Brown | NE
- Malik Nabers | NYG
- George Pickens | DAL
- Chris Olave | NO
- Rashee Rice | KC
- Zay Flowers | BAL
- Jaylen Waddle | DEN
- Tee Higgins | CIN
- DeVonta Smith | PHI
- Ladd McConkey | LAC
- Terry McLaurin | WAS
- Emeka Egbuka | TB
- Tetairoa McMillan | CAR
- Garrett Wilson | NYJ
- Jameson Williams | DET
- Christian Watson | GB
- Luther Burden III | CHI
- Rome Odunze | CHI
- Parker Washington | JAX
- Carnell Tate | TEN
- DJ Moore | BUF
- Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI
- Davante Adams | LAR
- Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX
- Quentin Johnston | LAC
- Mike Evans | SF
- Stefon Diggs | WAS
- Michael Wilson | ARI
- DK Metcalf | PIT
- Jakobi Meyers | JAX
- Josh Downs | IND
- Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT
- Jayden Reed | GB
- Courtland Sutton | DEN
- Wan’Dale Robinson | TEN
- Chris Godwin Jr. | TB
- Alec Pierce | IND
- Makai Lemon | PHI
- Jordan Addison | MIN
- De’Zhaun Stribling | SF
- Khalil Shakir | BUF
- Romeo Doubs | NE
