From the moment he entered the NFL, Zay Flowers’ talent was evident. After three seasons, though, fantasy football managers are still holding their collective breath, hoping the Baltimore Ravens WR1 can unlock even greater upside. With a new coaching staff and new offense, could this be the year Flowers takes that next step?
Should You Draft Zay Flowers in Fantasy Football?
Flowers has had a pretty natural progression since he was drafted in 2023. He posted 858 receiving yards as a rookie, 1,059 yards as a sophomore, and 1,211 yards in his third year. Flowers’ target share also increased every season, hitting an impressive 29.1% in 2025.
There’s no denying Flowers has the talent to be a WR1 in fantasy. Last year, he averaged 2.62 yards per route run, fifth in the league. His 0.53 fantasy points per route run ranked 10th, and his 2.06 fantasy points per target ranked 15th. The man is electric with the ball in his hands. It should come as no surprise that he is one of the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL.
As a quick aside, do not worry about the very high drop rate. Drops are not sticky from year to year, and unless they are going to literally get the player benched (not happening), they don’t really matter.
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In a different offense, Flowers could easily be viewed as a perennial WR1. As great as it is that he gets to catch passes from an elite talent like Lamar Jackson, it’s been unfortunate that he’s been trapped in such a low-volume passing offense.
25% is roughly the threshold for a WR1 target share. Anything pushing 30% is where we typically see the elites. Yet, Flowers’ near-30% target share netted him a mere 118 targets. By way of comparison, Emeka Egbuka only saw a 23.6% target share, but cleared Flowers by nine total targets. That’s the difference an offense makes.
Last season, the Ravens had a 46.4% neutral-game-script pass rate. Only the Jets threw the ball less in the same situations. With that said, although Jackson will always have a below-average pass attempts per game rate, 2025 was anomalously low.
Jackson averaged 23.2 pass attempts per game last season. For comparison, from 2022 to 2024, he was between 27.2 and 28.6. Logic would dictate a regression to the mean and for Jackson’s attempts to tick back up to usual levels.
If nothing changes other than that, Flowers would be expected to see another 1.1-1.2 targets per game. If he maintains roughly 2.0 fantasy points per target, that alone would be enough to raise his fantasy points per game average from the 14.3 he was at least last year to over 16.0, the WR1 threshold.
Then, there’s the matter of touchdowns. Obviously, the nature of the Ravens’ offense matters. They have a mobile quarterback and arguably the most effective goal-line back in NFL history, Derrick Henry. It’s reasonable to expect their pass catchers, particularly the wide receivers, to be below the expected touchdown rate. Even so, there’s no reason to think Flowers can’t ever score more than five times in a season, which is his career best so far.
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Based on Flowers’ yardage total, his expected touchdowns scored are around 7-8. This is the WR1 for one of the best offenses in football. Why can’t Flowers have an outlier year where he scores 10 times? We’ve seen the best wide receivers push 14+ touchdowns.
Even the low end of a scoring season over expectation could propel Flowers into the elite WR1 range. Adding a mere two more, even without the positive regression in Jackson’s passing volume, would get Flowers over 15.0 PPG.
Flowers’ Redraft Fantasy Football Value
As efficient as Flowers was last season, it’s pretty clear there’s still plenty of room for growth. We can pretty confidently say we haven’t seen his best season yet.
Flowers technically finished as the WR13 last season. But in a normal year, 14.3 PPG is closer to around WR20. The question is whether he can take that next step to justify his WR15 price tag. I believe he can.
There are multiple paths for Flowers to improve. He is competing for targets with Rashod Bateman, a washed Mark Andrews, and two rookies. Flowers is the clear alpha in every sense of the term. There’s definitely a path for him to command an even larger target share.
Additionally, Flowers’ efficiency could improve further. While that’s not something we should project, a 2025 Jaxon Smith-Njigba-like efficient season on a low-volume passing offense is not out of the realm of possibilities.
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We also have the potential for volume increase and better touchdown luck.
Of course, a downside also exists. In theory, Flowers could regress to where he was two years ago, when he was a low WR3. But that’s not typically what we see from young, talented wide receivers. The most likely outcome is that he improves.
Flowers is my WR15, and I am quite bullish on him this season. He’s being drafted below where he finished last season, much closer to his floor than his ceiling, which I believe to be top 8. Flowers is an awesome pick in 2026 fantasy drafts.
Preseason Fantasy WR Rankings
- Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
- Puka Nacua | LAR
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
- Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
- Drake London | ATL
- Justin Jefferson | MIN
- CeeDee Lamb | DAL
- Nico Collins | HOU
- A.J. Brown | NE
- Malik Nabers | NYG
- George Pickens | DAL
- Chris Olave | NO
- Rashee Rice | KC
- Zay Flowers | BAL
- Jaylen Waddle | DEN
- Tee Higgins | CIN
- DeVonta Smith | PHI
- Ladd McConkey | LAC
- Terry McLaurin | WAS
- Emeka Egbuka | TB
- Tetairoa McMillan | CAR
- Garrett Wilson | NYJ
- Jameson Williams | DET
- Christian Watson | GB
- Luther Burden III | CHI
- Rome Odunze | CHI
- Parker Washington | JAX
- Carnell Tate | TEN
- DJ Moore | BUF
- Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI
- Davante Adams | LAR
- Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX
- Quentin Johnston | LAC
- Mike Evans | SF
- Stefon Diggs | WAS
- Michael Wilson | ARI
- DK Metcalf | PIT
- Jakobi Meyers | JAX
- Josh Downs | IND
- Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT
- Jayden Reed | GB
- Courtland Sutton | DEN
- Wan’Dale Robinson | TEN
- Chris Godwin Jr. | TB
- Alec Pierce | IND
- Makai Lemon | PHI
- Jordan Addison | MIN
- De’Zhaun Stribling | SF
- Khalil Shakir | BUF
- Romeo Doubs | NE
