Bijan Robinson Fantasy Projection 2026: Is the Falcons RB the No. 1 Pick?

Bijan Robinson has been a top-three fantasy football running back for two consecutive seasons. He’s one of the smoothest runners of all time and can run routes like prime Matt Forte. A true three-down skill set, here’s why the latest Robinson should come off the board is at the No. 2 overall pick in fantasy drafts.

Should You Draft Falcons RB Bijan Robinson in Fantasy Football?

Pick a metric and Robinson is probably elite at it. Despite playing on a mediocre Falcons offense, Robinson excelled in every facet of football. He was second in forced/missed tackle rate, first in yards per touch, second in yards created per touch, and third in yards per route run, to name a few. Robinson averaged 21.8 fantasy points per game, finishing behind only Christian McCaffrey.

Robinson posted 2,298 yards from scrimmage, which led the league. Yet, amazingly, there’s still some untapped potential with this already elite player.

Last season, Robinson was 10th in the league with a 70% opportunity share. He had 390 of them, with just 287 coming via rush attempts. Surely a back as talented as Robinson has a 320 carry/100 target season in him. Even another two opportunities per game would tack on another two points per game to his fantasy output. But that’s not even where he has the most room to grow. The real legendary upside for Robinson lies in the touchdown department.

Last season, 17.8% of Robinson’s fantasy points came from touchdowns. Among top-12ish running backs, that ranked last by a sizable margin. While it’s great that Robinson doesn’t need touchdowns to produce, they sure would be nice.

Tyler Allgeier siphoned off eight rushing scores from Robinson, four of which came from the one-yard line, and another two from inside the six. Allgeier is now in Arizona, but was replaced by Brian Robinson, who has a similar skill set.

Even with Robinson in town, there are other paths to an elite touchdown season. If Jahmyr Gibbs can score 20 times with David Montgomery in his backfield, so can Robinson. Either he can cede less work inside the five to his backfield mate. Or, one of these years, the Falcons offense can just be better overall, providing more scoring opportunities. Then there’s the scariest part of it all. What if both things happen?

Robinson scored 11 times last season. That’s outrageously low for the guy who literally led the NFL in scrimmage yards. Eventually, Robinson is going to have that 20-touchdown season. Imagine his numbers if he did not improve anywhere else/didn’t see any additional volume, but merely scored nine more times. That alone would put him pushing 23 PPG. Add in those additional two opportunities and now we’re at 25 PPG. And we’re assuming the legendary season is 20 touchdowns. He has the talent to one year get to 22, 25, or even 30. That’s the level of upside this player possesses.

Robinson’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value

There is a very real case to be made for Gibbs at No. 1 overall. Our consensus rankings have it split with Katz putting Gibbs at 1 and Soppe with Bijan at 1. There’s no wrong answer. By the time any fantasy draft gets to the third pick, both running backs should be gone. They are the clear top two players in all 1QB formats.

READ MORE: 2026 Controversial Fantasy Football Running Back Depth Charts: Who To Draft In These Confusing Rooms

The argument in favor of Robinson is the usage. He’s never missed a game in his career. He’s never even on the injury report. He has true feature back size at 215 pounds. We’ve gotten consecutive 20+ PPG seasons despite playing on the vastly inferior offense while scoring far fewer touchdowns.

The argument in favor of Gibbs is that he’s on the superior offense, which is why he’s able to score more even with a guy like Montgomery by his side. With Montgomery gone, Gibbs could see more volume and have a historically great season.

Robinson vs. Gibbs is a fun debate to have, but the answer isn’t all that important. There is no wrong answer. Take Robinson no later than the second overall pick.

Preseason Fantasy RB Rankings

1. Bijan Robinson | ATL
2. Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
3. James Cook III | BUF
4. Jonathan Taylor | IND
5. Ashton Jeanty | LV
6. Christian McCaffrey | SF
7. Saquon Barkley | PHI
8. Chase Brown | CIN
9. De’Von Achane | MIA
10. Derrick Henry | BAL
11. Kenneth Walker III | KC
12. Jeremiyah Love | ARI
13. Omarion Hampton | LAC
14. Javonte Williams | DAL
15. Breece Hall | NYJ
16. Kyren Williams | LAR
17. D’Andre Swift | CHI
18. Travis Etienne Jr. | NO
19. Josh Jacobs | GB
20. Cam Skattebo | NYG
21. David Montgomery | HOU
22. Bhayshul Tuten | JAX
23. TreVeyon Henderson | NE
24. Quinshon Judkins | CLE
25. Jaylen Warren | PIT
26. Bucky Irving | TB
27. Jadarian Price | SEA
28. Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
29. Chuba Hubbard | CAR
30. Kenny Gainwell | TB
31. Tony Pollard | TEN
32. Jordan Mason | MIN
33. Rico Dowdle | PIT
34. Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS
35. Blake Corum | LAR
36. RJ Harvey | DEN
37. Kyle Monangai | CHI
38. Rachaad White | WAS
39. Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX
40. Zach Charbonnet | SEA
41. Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN
42. Jonathon Brooks | CAR
43. J.K. Dobbins | DEN
44. Tyler Allgeier | ARI
45. Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG
46. Isiah Pacheco | DET
47. Woody Marks | HOU
48. Tyjae Spears | TEN
49. Nick Singleton | TEN
50. Brian Robinson Jr. | ATL