Rico Dowdle Fantasy Projection 2026: Should You Draft the Steelers RB?

Rico Dowdle was one of the biggest surprises in fantasy football last season. After a second straight heavy volume season, Dowdle earned himself a role in the Pittsburgh Steelers backfield. What can we expect his usage to be in 2026, and will it be enough to make him someone fantasy managers should target?

Should You Draft Rico Dowdle in Fantasy Football?

I haven’t actually done any research on this, but you have to imagine it’s pretty unique to see a backfield led by two former UDFAs. Jaylen Warren and Dowdle both went undrafted and had to earn their right to be prominent NFL running backs.

Dowdle was kind of forced to be the Dallas Cowboys’ lead back in 2024 because Ezekiel Elliott was completely cooked. He thrived in the role, rushing for over 1,000 yards. Having proven he could handle 250+ touches, but wanting a clear starting opportunity, Dowdle signed with the Panthers ahead of the 2025 season.

Although Chuba Hubbard was entrenched as the starter, an early-season injury opened the door for Dowdle to see feature back usage. His performances in Weeks 4 and 5 alone were enough to justify his cost in fantasy drafts.

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Dowdle posted back-to-back games of 230+ total yards, scoring 32.4 and 33.9 fantasy points. It was enough to earn him the starting role despite Hubbard’s contract extension before the season.

Although Dowdle didn’t quite run away with the starting job and ceded work back to Hubbard, his role never reverted to the 30% snap share guy he was before taking over. It was another 250+ touch season for Dowdle. In fact, his numbers were almost identical to the year prior. He had one more carry, three fewer rushing yards, and the exact same number of receptions. Dowdle’s 12.7 fantasy points per game made him quite the positive return on investment.

Volume is king in fantasy football, but it doesn’t hurt to actually be efficient with the ball. Dowdle’s 3.51 yards created per touch was inside the top 15, and his 5.0 yards per touch ranked 18th. He also earned a respectable 10.4% target share and averaged 1.32 yards per route run. He wasn’t just the guy getting the ball. He’s become a legitimately good running back.

Dowdle’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value

There are a lot of unknowns with the Steelers this season. What does a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers have left? Will the offense continue to be run-heavy under Mike McCarthy, who has historically spearheaded more passing-friendly offenses? And perhaps the most important question: what will the touch distribution in this backfield look like with Kenneth Gainwell now in Tampa Bay?

As fantasy managers, all we can do is make our best predictions based on the evidence we have. Gainwell is a terrific pass catcher. Given the personnel the Steelers had last season, it makes sense that he and Warren played the roles they did. This year should look pretty similar structurally, but who plays what role will be different.

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While Dowdle is certainly a capable receiver, he is nowhere near Gainwell’s level. He’s more of a “will catch the ball if you throw it to him” guy as opposed to a true receiving back.

The most likely scenario is that Dowdle steps into the former Najee Harris role, the role that Warren surprisingly played last season. Warren is going to start, but Dowdle should operate mostly on early downs, with Warren transitioning back into his more natural receiving-back role.

The biggest question will be who sees the goal line work. Dowdle should be the favorite, but I don’t expect him to completely take over to the point where Warren doesn’t see any touches inside the 5-yard line.

Given Rodgers’ penchant for checking it down, Dowdle’s receiving usage shouldn’t completely evaporate. He can still see around an 8% target share. Add in the fact that the Steelers’ offense should be better with Mike McCarthy in charge and Michael Pittman Jr. added to the fold; there should be enough here for at least RB3/Flex production.

Dowdle’s ADP sits at RB29, just two spots behind Warren. The market’s uncertainty surrounding their usage is making both quite affordable. I prefer Warren at the cost because he has a more predictable role, but Dowdle is not a bad investment, either. Plus, there’s the contingent upside if Warren were to get hurt, in that we know Dowdle can be a three-down back.

I have Dowdle as my RB32 as well and have no problem taking him at cost. He’s just not someone I’m trying to reach for.

Preseason Fantasy RB Rankings

1. Bijan Robinson | ATL
2. Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
3. James Cook III | BUF
4. Jonathan Taylor | IND
5. Ashton Jeanty | LV
6. Christian McCaffrey | SF
7. Saquon Barkley | PHI
8. Chase Brown | CIN
9. De’Von Achane | MIA
10. Derrick Henry | BAL
11. Kenneth Walker III | KC
12. Jeremiyah Love | ARI
13. Omarion Hampton | LAC
14. Javonte Williams | DAL
15. Breece Hall | NYJ
16. Kyren Williams | LAR
17. D’Andre Swift | CHI
18. Travis Etienne Jr. | NO
19. Josh Jacobs | GB
20. Cam Skattebo | NYG
21. David Montgomery | HOU
22. Bhayshul Tuten | JAX
23. TreVeyon Henderson | NE
24. Quinshon Judkins | CLE
25. Jaylen Warren | PIT
26. Bucky Irving | TB
27. Jadarian Price | SEA
28. Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
29. Chuba Hubbard | CAR
30. Kenny Gainwell | TB
31. Tony Pollard | TEN
32. Jordan Mason | MIN
33. Rico Dowdle | PIT
34. Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS
35. Blake Corum | LAR
36. RJ Harvey | DEN
37. Kyle Monangai | CHI
38. Rachaad White | WAS
39. Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX
40. Zach Charbonnet | SEA
41. Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN
42. Jonathon Brooks | CAR
43. J.K. Dobbins | DEN
44. Tyler Allgeier | ARI
45. Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG
46. Isiah Pacheco | DET
47. Woody Marks | HOU
48. Tyjae Spears | TEN
49. Nick Singleton | TEN
50. Brian Robinson Jr. | ATL