David Montgomery Fantasy Projection 2026: Should You Draft the Texans RB?

David Montgomery probably won't bust, and he probably won't win your league either. Where the new Texans RB belongs in 2026 fantasy football drafts.

After firmly taking a backseat to Jahmyr Gibbs last season, it’s no surprise that David Montgomery wanted a fresh start with a chance to be the guy. He will get that in Houston as the Texans’ lead back.

There is an obvious offensive downgrade, but it will be a volume upgrade. Is the proverbial juice worth the squeeze for Montgomery in 2026 fantasy football drafts?

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Should You Draft Texans RB David Montgomery in Fantasy Football?

Montgomery is trying to do the same thing he did three years ago. His fourth season in Chicago was very lackluster, with him only averaging 11.1 fantasy points per game. It also included a very meaningful reduction in volume, which Montgomery was not pleased with. As a result, he moved on, signing with the Lions.

Montgomery’s first two seasons in Detroit went very well. He was the 1A to Gibbs in 2023 and then the 1B in 2024. Even the switch in usage didn’t really bother him because he still saw a solid 46.8% opportunity share. Then, the switch happened.

In 2025, the Lions could no longer justify removing Gibbs from the field as frequently. Montgomery’s opportunity share plummeted to 35.3%. His snap share was down at 37.2%. Even though Montgomery still averaged a respectable 5.0 yards per touch, the talent gap between him and Gibbs is just so massive that the veteran wasn’t seeing the field as much as he expected.

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Montgomery still believes he can lead a backfield and be a 250-touch back. Analytically, nothing about his recent performance suggests he’s wrong. We really haven’t seen a decline in performance. Any negative outlook on Montgomery likely stems from the fact that, when compared directly to Gibbs, he looks slow, lumbering, and not explosive. In his defense, most of the league would look terrible compared to Gibbs.

One of the main problems for Montgomery’s fantasy profile with the Lions was the lack of receiving work. Here were his target shares by year in Detroit:

  • 2023: 5.3%
  • 2024: 9.0%
  • 2025: 5.3%

In Chicago, excluding his rookie season, Montgomery was within a few decimal points of 12% every season. It’s not that Montgomery is a pure down grinder; it’s that Detroit chose to use him that way.

Montgomery’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value

We can confidently say Montgomery still has the ability to be a weekly RB2 in fantasy. The question is, will his situation and opportunity allow it?

The Texans are a good team, which certainly helps. They won 12 games last year and every single one of their losses came by one score. That means, at no point last year did game script fully get away from them, which is great news for Montgomery, as it keeps him in the mix.

 

The presumptive RB2 and satellite back is Woody Marks, who was miscast as the two-down grinder last season. Equipped with an elite college receiving profile, Marks can now settle into his more natural pass-catching role.

READ MORE: 2026 Controversial Fantasy Football Running Back Depth Charts: Who To Draft In These Confusing Rooms

He will cut into Montgomery’s upside, but it’s clear that head coach DeMeco Ryans wants the trustworthy veteran. As long as the Texans avoid getting blown out, which, given their elite defense, seems likely, Montgomery won’t get game-scripted out of contests.

That’s the good news. The bad news on the situation front is that the Texans aren’t nearly the caliber of offense as the Lions. 2025 was quite literally the best season in the history of the franchise, and Houston was the 13th-best offense in the NFL. This team has talent, but it’s difficult to see them improving upon that at all.

The clear upside case for Montgomery is 2024 Joe Mixon. Considered a risk to decline coming off multiple inefficient seasons, Mixon posted 17.2 PPG and was one of the best picks in fantasy in 2024. He only averaged 4.2 yards per carry and caught just 36 passes in 14 games, but scored 12 times.

Montgomery has always been an effective goal-line back. Can he average 17+ rush attempts per game and catch at least two balls per contest? Mixon has always been a better player than Montgomery. Plus, Marks is a far more formidable RB2 than anyone the Texans had in 2024. But Montgomery doesn’t have to be Mixon. Even 75% of what Mixon did would make Montgomery a solid pick at cost.

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Whether you draft Montgomery will come down to a combination of things: draft philosophy, draft room, roster construction, and belief in the player. Montgomery seems very unlikely to bust. His RB23 price tag is quite reasonable. The main concern is whether he possesses any sort of upside to be more than a small hit.

Montgomery isn’t the type of player fantasy managers should aggressively target. He’s not going to be a league winner and an RB1 season seems quite unrealistic. But it seems equally unrealistic that he completely falls off a cliff and ends up being useless. He’s the type of player who should finish relatively close to his ADP expectation. He is the quintessential safe, boring veteran.

I have Montgomery at RB22, right in line with consensus. He is “fine” and I think that’s the best descriptor I can use to describe what it’s like to draft him.

Preseason Fantasy RB Rankings

  1. Bijan Robinson | ATL
  2. Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
  3. James Cook III | BUF
  4. Jonathan Taylor | IND
  5. Ashton Jeanty | LV
  6. Christian McCaffrey | SF
  7. Saquon Barkley | PHI
  8. Chase Brown | CIN
  9. De’Von Achane | MIA
  10. Derrick Henry | BAL
  11. Kenneth Walker III | KC
  12. Jeremiyah Love | ARI
  13. Omarion Hampton | LAC
  14. Javonte Williams | DAL
  15. Breece Hall | NYJ
  16. Kyren Williams | LAR
  17. D’Andre Swift | CHI
  18. Travis Etienne Jr. | NO
  19. Josh Jacobs | GB
  20. Cam Skattebo | NYG
  21. David Montgomery | HOU
  22. Bhayshul Tuten | JAX
  23. TreVeyon Henderson | NE
  24. Quinshon Judkins | CLE
  25. Jaylen Warren | PIT
  26. Bucky Irving | TB
  27. Jadarian Price | SEA
  28. Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
  29. Chuba Hubbard | CAR
  30. Kenny Gainwell | TB
  31. Tony Pollard | TEN
  32. Jordan Mason | MIN
  33. Rico Dowdle | PIT
  34. Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS
  35. Blake Corum | LAR
  36. RJ Harvey | DEN
  37. Kyle Monangai | CHI
  38. Rachaad White | WAS
  39. Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX
  40. Zach Charbonnet | SEA
  41. Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN
  42. Jonathon Brooks | CAR
  43. J.K. Dobbins | DEN
  44. Tyler Allgeier | ARI
  45. Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG
  46. Isiah Pacheco | DET
  47. Woody Marks | HOU
  48. Tyjae Spears | TEN
  49. Nick Singleton | TEN
  50. Brian Robinson Jr. | ATL

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