Jaylen Warren was one of the better values in fantasy football last season. While not exactly a difference-maker, he outperformed his ADP expectation and proved he could handle heavier volume than he’d ever seen before.
However, he didn’t play the role everyone expected. This season, with a new coaching staff and what could be the best Pittsburgh Steelers offense he’s ever been on, fantasy managers have reason to be bullish on Warren.
Should You Draft Steelers RB Jaylen Warren in Fantasy Football?
The lack of full belief in Warren is yet another example of how difficult it is for a player to break free from his draft capital. As a former UDFA, Warren had to earn his spot on the roster as a rookie. He had to earn the RB2 role behind Najee Harris. He had to continually prove that he’s not just a flash in the pan and better than his UDFA status. After four years, it’s safe to say he’s finally done it.
Last season, the Steelers moved on from Harris and committed to Warren as their lead back. He rewarded Pittsburgh and fantasy managers with the best season of his career, averaging 13.6 fantasy points per game.
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Viewed more as a satellite back, Warren was actually the bruiser in the Steelers’ offense. He handled a career-high 211 carries and totaled nearly 1,300 yards from scrimmage. Warren also scored more touchdowns (8) than in the rest of his career combined (6).
The most fascinating part of Warren’s 2025 season was how he thrived in a role no one saw coming. The prevailing belief heading into last season was that rookie third-rounder Kaleb Johnson would be the direct replacement for Harris, serving as the early-down grinder, and that Warren would settle into his more natural receiving-back role. Instead, it was Warren as the Harris replacement and Kenneth Gainwell taking Warren’s previous role.
This led to Warren having an unexpectedly low receiving role, earning just a 9.0% target share. For context, that number was 11.9% in 2024 and 15.3% in 2023.
Even though Warren’s involvement as a receiver was limited, he was unsurprisingly still quite effective when he was thrown the ball. Warren’s 1.81 yards per route run was fourth among running backs.
In general, Warren was really effective with the ball in his hands. He averaged 5.1 yards per touch, 14th in the league, and his evaded tackles per touch rate and yards created per touch both ranked inside the top 10. The talent is clearly there. But what will the role look like going forward?
Warren’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
There are a lot of unknowns with the Steelers this season. What does a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers have left? Will the offense continue to be run-heavy under Mike McCarthy, who has historically spearheaded more passing-friendly offenses? And perhaps the most important question: what will the touch distribution in this backfield look like with Gainwell now in Tampa Bay?
As fantasy managers, all we can do is make our best predictions based on the evidence we have. Gainwell is a terrific pass catcher. Given the personnel the Steelers had last season, it makes sense that he and Warren played the roles they did. This year, Warren will be sharing the backfield with Rico Dowdle.
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While Dowdle is certainly a capable receiver, he is nowhere near Gainwell’s level. He’s more of a “will catch the ball if you throw it to him” guy as opposed to a true receiving back. He did see a career-high 10.4% target share last season, but only had a 78% catch rate and averaged just 1.32 yards per route run. Those numbers are far from bad, but they’re not as good as Warren.
The most likely scenario is that Dowdle steps into that Harris role, serving as the early down back, with Warren transitioning back into his receiving back role. On the surface, this may seem like a downgrade. But are we sure Warren is going to lose his goal-line role? I don’t think so. At worst, he should share duties with Dowdle.
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We may get Warren seeing most of the high-leverage touches in what should be a much-improved offense. He should see a more significant target share (Gainwell was over 15% last season), while maintaining touchdown potential. That is everything we want from a fantasy running back: receptions and touchdowns.
Warren is coming off an RB18 finish. He’s now going off the board around RB27. I have him above consensus at RB24.
Warren doesn’t have league-winning upside, but he’s very likely to outperform his ADP expectation once again. We are looking at a player whose upside far outweighs his floor, making Warren one of the better RB3 selections in 2026.
Preseason Fantasy RB Rankings
- Bijan Robinson | ATL
- Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
- James Cook III | BUF
- Jonathan Taylor | IND
- Ashton Jeanty | LV
- Christian McCaffrey | SF
- Saquon Barkley | PHI
- Chase Brown | CIN
- De’Von Achane | MIA
- Derrick Henry | BAL
- Kenneth Walker III | KC
- Jeremiyah Love | ARI
- Omarion Hampton | LAC
- Javonte Williams | DAL
- Breece Hall | NYJ
- Kyren Williams | LAR
- D’Andre Swift | CHI
- Travis Etienne Jr. | NO
- Josh Jacobs | GB
- Cam Skattebo | NYG
- David Montgomery | HOU
- Bhayshul Tuten | JAX
- TreVeyon Henderson | NE
- Quinshon Judkins | CLE
- Jaylen Warren | PIT
- Bucky Irving | TB
- Jadarian Price | SEA
- Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
- Chuba Hubbard | CAR
- Kenny Gainwell | TB
- Tony Pollard | TEN
- Jordan Mason | MIN
- Rico Dowdle | PIT
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS
- Blake Corum | LAR
- RJ Harvey | DEN
- Kyle Monangai | CHI
- Rachaad White | WAS
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX
- Zach Charbonnet | SEA
- Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN
- Jonathon Brooks | CAR
- J.K. Dobbins | DEN
- Tyler Allgeier | ARI
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG
- Isiah Pacheco | DET
- Woody Marks | HOU
- Tyjae Spears | TEN
- Nick Singleton | TEN
- Brian Robinson Jr. | ATL
