Bo Nix was the record-breaking sixth quarterback taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but he certainly isn’t the sixth best. The Denver Broncos quarterback started from Day 1 and exceeded expectations from the jump. A value in fantasy football each of his first two seasons; will year three be no different?
Should You Draft Bo Nix in Fantasy Football?
If we redrafted the 2024 quarterbacks, Nix probably goes fourth overall. It was a truly spectacular quarterback class.
Nix is everything you want in a modern quarterback. He has a respectable 64.8% career completion percentage. There’s been plenty of passing volume with Nix averaging 34.6 pass attempts per game across his first two NFL seasons. Despite Sean Payton’s reputation as a coach who wants to run the ball, Nix actually led the league in pass attempts last season.
The modern fantasy quarterback needs to have an element of rushing to his game and Nix has just that. He’s not Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson on the ground, but he’s more than capable.
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Nix is averaging 23.1 rushing yards per game and has nine career rushing touchdowns. That’s 3.63 fantasy points per game from rushing alone. It’s just what he needs to elevate his fantasy football floor.
Nix has been a QB1 in fantasy each of his first two seasons, finishing eighth as a rookie and 10th as a sophomore. The concern for fantasy managers is whether there is another level he can unlock. It’s hard to say there’s top-five upside when Nix already posted back-to-back seasons of 35 and 30 total touchdowns. Does he have a 40 TD season in him? I’m certainly not going to project it.
The Broncos’ offense is predicated on short, quick passes. Nix’s has been at 7.3 air yards per attempt in both of his NFL seasons. While capable of the occasional explosive play, the tendency to avoid pushing the ball downfield inherently caps Nix’s ceiling.
Nix’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
In recent seasons, it’s been more viable to spend premium draft capital on a quarterback than during the 2010s. The rise of the mobile QB has resulted in the elite fantasy quarterbacks not only having higher ceilings, but also being more predictable year over year.
Given how flat the wide receivers get once you get into the WR2 range, combined with running backs falling off a cliff around the fifth round, it’s more viable than usual to spend up for an elite QB. But the arguments in favor of late-round QB remain strong, and Nix is right in the mix (you see what I did there?)
There are several quarterbacks all going relatively close to each other. Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy go a little before Nix. Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, and Jordan Love go a little after him.
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Among that group of quarterbacks, it really comes down to personal preference/value. Nix is currently going at a price lower than where he finished in either of his two seasons. He’s being drafted below his floor. But that doesn’t automatically make him a target. It’s easy to find back-end QB1 production. If you don’t think Nix has 20 PPG upside, you are better off drafting someone who does.
While Nix is unlikely to finish top five, it’s not impossible. Plus, his front office is working to help him. The addition of Jaylen Waddle gives Nix the best set of pass catchers he’s had thus far. It’s certainly possible we see a spike season from him.
Preseason Fantasy QB Rankings
- Josh Allen | BUF
- Drake Maye | NE
- Lamar Jackson | BAL
- Jayden Daniels | WAS
- Joe Burrow | CIN
- Jalen Hurts | PHI
- Caleb Williams | CHI
- Justin Herbert | LAC
- Jaxson Dart | NYG
- Trevor Lawrence | JAX
- Dak Prescott | DAL
- Bo Nix | DEN
- Brock Purdy | SF
- Patrick Mahomes II | KC
- Matthew Stafford | LAR
- Jared Goff | DET
- Kyler Murray | MIN
- Jordan Love | GB
- Malik Willis | MIA
- Tyler Shough | NO
- Baker Mayfield | TB
- C.J. Stroud | HOU
- Sam Darnold | SEA
- Daniel Jones | IND
- Bryce Young | CAR
