Matthew Stafford is coming off yet another one of his surprise elite QB1 seasons. Perhaps the word “surprise” seems unfair for a guy so talented and consistently viewed as one of the best passers in the league. But fantasy football is not always reflective of reality. This time, fantasy managers are not falling for it, though.
Should You Draft Matthew Stafford in Fantasy Football?
Stafford is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. No question about it. If NFL teams had to pick quarterbacks most likely to help them win a Super Bowl for one year, Stafford would undoubtedly be a top 10 pick. Fantasy football is different.
Modern NFL quarterbacks all have at least some modicum of mobility.
Last season, five quarterbacks averaged at least 20.0 PPG (Trevor Lawrence was actually fifth at 19.9, but we’re counting him). Here is the percentage of fantasy points for each from rushing:
- Josh Allen 37.3%
- Drake Maye 17.9%
- Matthew Stafford -1.7%
- Patrick Mahomes 25.3%
- Trevor Lawrence 24.8%
One of these things is not like the other.
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Of the top 15 qualifying fantasy quarterbacks last season, 12 of them generated at least 17% of their fantasy points via rushing production.
It’s not the 2000s anymore. We had the great quarterback boom of 2011 that elevated QB production across the league. That took us into one era. In the late 2020s, right around the time when Lamar Jackson became a starter, the NFL kicked off the mobile quarterback era. Now, almost every QB entering the league has minimum competency as a rusher. That makes it more and more difficult for traditional pocket passers to hang. To do so, pocket passers need to throw a lot of touchdowns.
Stafford has played 18 professional seasons and been considered one of the better QBs in the league for most of them. Yet, he’s only had four in which he posted 19+ fantasy points per game.
While Stafford has registered nine QB1 finishes, seven of them came in the 2010s and with averages that wouldn’t get him there now.
Stafford’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
In recent seasons, it’s been more viable to spend premium draft capital on a quarterback than during the 2010s. The rise of the mobile QB has resulted in the elite fantasy quarterbacks not only having higher ceilings, but also being more predictable year over year.
The same cannot be said for Stafford due to his lack of mobility. He’s elite when he throws a ton of touchdowns and mediocre otherwise. The difference this year is fantasy managers are smarter and aren’t being fooled.
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In the Rams’ historic 2021 season, when Cooper Kupp won the triple crown and the team won the Super Bowl, Stafford threw for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns. That’s about as well as any quarterback can play. He averaged 19.4 PPG, the fourth-best season of his career. Yet, he finished as the QB11 in fantasy.
The following season, Stafford’s ADP held steady as a back-end QB1. He rewarded fantasy managers’ confidence by barely finishing as a QB2.
Last season, Stafford’s TD rate shattered his career high at 7.7%. Of course, Davante Adams’ arrival and status as the team’s “goal line back” contributed to this. But the fact remains, it represents a massive outlier to the rest of his career.
We can say definitively that Stafford’s TD rate will regress once again. The question is how much. The answer is likely “a lot.”
In 2026, we have a deep quarterback group. There are several quarterbacks with QB1 upside and even legitimate top-five upside going outside the top 12. Technically, Stafford has proven top-five upside. But it requires a herculean effort, like throwing 46 touchdowns.
No matter how prolific a passer Stafford is, he’s capped at 20-22 PPG. In 2024, Jalen Hurts threw for 2,903 yards and 18 touchdowns. He averaged 21.3 PPG. That’s the power of rushing.
As talented as Stafford is, there’s a reason he’s going around QB12 despite a top-five finish in 2025. Stafford should not be treated like an elite QB1 in fantasy this season.
Preseason Fantasy QB Rankings
- Josh Allen | BUF
- Drake Maye | NE
- Lamar Jackson | BAL
- Jayden Daniels | WAS
- Joe Burrow | CIN
- Jalen Hurts | PHI
- Caleb Williams | CHI
- Justin Herbert | LAC
- Jaxson Dart | NYG
- Trevor Lawrence | JAX
- Dak Prescott | DAL
- Bo Nix | DEN
- Brock Purdy | SF
- Patrick Mahomes II | KC
- Matthew Stafford | LAR
- Jared Goff | DET
- Kyler Murray | MIN
- Jordan Love | GB
- Malik Willis | MIA
- Tyler Shough | NO
- Baker Mayfield | TB
- C.J. Stroud | HOU
- Sam Darnold | SEA
- Daniel Jones | IND
- Bryce Young | CAR
