When you’re as ingrained in the fantasy football world as I am, there really is no true offseason. My first pass at redraft rankings comes right after the NFL Draft. Forgive me if I don’t have a firm grasp on the fantasy landscape in early May.
Naturally, things change as we gain more information. It’s important not to be married to your initial opinions. Here are a few players I’ve changed my mind on over the past couple of months.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
When Kenneth Walker III first signed with the Kansas City Chiefs, there was no ambiguity in my assessment of his fantasy value: I was fading him. Walker’s price in early best ball drafts shot up into the early second round, sometimes even cracking the top 12.
While I still don’t believe Walker is worth that significant of an investment, my previous position was that he belonged in the middle of the third round alongside guys like Breece Hall, Kyren Williams, and Javonte Williams. I have since changed my tune.
I would not go so far as to say I am in on Walker. He’s not a priority target for me. But I did move him from RB13, firmly behind Derrick Henry, Omarion Hampton, and Jeremiyah Love, to RB9, ahead of those three.
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The more I thought about it, the combination of Patrick Mahomes running less coming off the torn ACL and the lack of talented receiving weapons has me a bit more confident that Walker will actually threaten for career highs in receptions. I never doubted the goal line role.
I still think the fantasy community is overvaluing what “Chiefs running back” means. Yes, Walker is easily the most talented back they’ve had since rookie Kareem Hunt. But this isn’t the same dynamic offense from the Tyreek Hill days.
Nevertheless, I am willing to push the button on Walker in the middle of the second round now.
Travis Etienne, RB, New Orleans Saints
The benefit of drafting very early is that you can get value on players and build teams you won’t be able to later in the Summer. The downside is that events can transpire that make the players you took bad values by comparison.
I’ve never really been a Travis Etienne guy. Simply put, I don’t think he is particularly talented. He’s slightly above replacement-level, and I attribute a large portion of his 2025 success to Liam Coen.
Etienne’s 14.9 fantasy points per game ranked 13th at the position last season. That’s great, and he was one of the best values in fantasy. Give me Etienne in a close-to-a-three-down role in an ascending offense, with a brilliant offensive mind calling plays, and I was happy to bet on the situation and opportunity despite my feelings about the talent.
For months, the prevailing belief was that an on-his-last-legs Alvin Kamara had played his final snap as a New Orleans Saint. Instead, the Saints restructured Kamara’s deal to keep him with the team.
Say what you want about Kamara’s abilities at this point in his career; he’s going to play. Given that he’s completely finished as a runner, logic dictates his role will be on passing downs. That means Etienne is unlikely to see progression as a receiver beyond the 9.5% target share he saw last year, which amounted to 2.1 receptions per game. Etienne will have to rely on his talent. That is not what fantasy managers want.
Last season, it took a 69.2% opportunity share and a career-high 13 touchdowns for him to reach high RB2 numbers. As much as I believe in Kellen Moore, the Saints are an offensive downgrade from the Jaguars. And Etienne only averaged 0.81 fantasy points per opportunity, 32nd in the league.
He was a volume-and-touchdown merchant, two things I believe are very likely to regress this season. Even a modest decrease from each would make Etienne a tough click in the third round.
I’ve since lowered Etienne to RB18, and he may end up even lower by the end of the month. He was never a priority target, but now he is a clear fade for me.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers
This is a very interesting one because Chuba Hubbard may end up going from a target to a fade back to a target again. I know. That’s quite the opening line. You’re intrigued (I hope).
Last season, Hubbard lost the RB1 job to Rico Dowdle simply because Dowdle outplayed him. But a big part of the reason Dowdle even had the chance to outplay him was a calf injury.
Making matters worse, after missing two games, Hubbard returned too soon from the injury (likely because he saw the writing on the wall) and could not perform at the level we’ve come to expect from him.
Do not mistake this for me claiming Hubbard is some sort of uber talent. He is not. But in 2024, he averaged 16.1 PPG and earned an 11.7% target share. Of course, it took a 77.9% share of opportunities for him to do so. And similar to Etienne, he was not efficient on a per-touch basis, averaging 0.79 fantasy points per opportunity.
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To open this season, I was intrigued by the idea of Hubbard back in control of this backfield with minimal competition. Recently, though, the Jonathon Brooks drumbeat has only gotten louder, and I’m buying it…to an extent.
I fully believe that Brook is more talented than Hubbard and that the Panthers want Brooks to be their RB1. However, he’s still working his way back from a torn ACL twice, and we have no guarantee that he’s the same player he was before the injuries.
The Brooks hype has gotten me to lower Hubbard in my rankings from RB22 to RB28. That is a substantial drop.
Here’s the ironic part, though. The Brooks hype is getting so out of control that he is on the verge of flipping Hubbard in ADP. So, while I may not be moving Hubbard up, if his ADP keeps falling, he will go from a player I am fading to a player at least worth drafting.
Hubbard is going to start Week 1 barring injury. That is a certainty. Two years ago, Hubbard was an afterthought in fantasy drafts despite the same certainty, as the consensus was that Brooks would return within 4-6 weeks and eventually take over the backfield. It never happened. Who’s to say 2026 can’t play out the same way?
For now, I am fading Hubbard. But if his price gets low enough, I’m willing to make the same risk-free bet I made in 2024.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
There is no denying that Justin Jefferson is one of the most talented wide receivers in the league. In fact, I would put him at No. 2 behind Ja’Marr Chase. But really, we’re splitting hairs. You can make a strong case for him at No. 1 (and I’m cool if you want to put him No. 3 behind Puka Nacua as well).
Fantasy football is not real football, though. There is more to this game than raw talent. Jefferson, who had never previously averaged below 17.1 PPG, bottomed out at 11.9 PPG last season. Not a single soul is putting that on Jefferson. It solely falls on the shoulders of JJ McCarthy and Max Brosmer.
When the Vikings signed Kyler Murray, my knee-jerk reaction was, “I’m in!” Jefferson is an undisputed elite talent. We’ve seen him produce WR1 numbers with the likes of Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall. It was literally only McCarthy/Brosmer who could drag him down. Murray is by no means an elite thrower of the football, but he’s a clear upgrade on Jefferson.
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The more time I’ve had to think, though, the more I’m pulling back on Jefferson. It’s not that I’m fading him. It’s not that I don’t expect a bounce back. We will get a bounce back. Jefferson is a lock to perform better than last year with Murray under center. But his price demands it. For a guy who failed to reach 12.0 PPG last season, that’s quite expensive.
Now, this is not to say Jefferson isn’t worth a first-round pick. He’s Justin Jefferson. We know his ceiling is overall WR1. But after what he did last year, why are we not getting a discount? I thought Jefferson would be a mid-round 2 selection, at which point I would be quite interested. But I’ve become more and more averse to the notion of having to spend a top-12 pick on a player whose floor is much lower than everyone going around him.
Parker Washington, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
I was never out on Parker Washington. Rather, my initial feeling on the Jaguars’ wide receiver room was, “I don’t know.”
Brian Thomas Jr. objectively had one of the greatest rookie seasons for a wide receiver in NFL history. We have never seen a wide receiver post 1,200+ yards as a rookie and fail. From that perspective, Thomas sure seems like a good investment this year.
Jakobi Meyers has outperformed his ADP expectation just about every year of his career. Once again, he is going to do that. The knock on him has always been (and still is) that he’s not a needle-mover.
Then, we have Washington, who came out of nowhere as a former sixth-round pick to post legitimately huge numbers over the second half and in the NFL playoffs. But was that a product of circumstance? It’s hard to say.
Thus, my position was that at least one of them would be a value; I’ll get my exposures in Best Ball, but in managed leagues, I’m not going to try to guess. I have since changed my tune. Washington is the guy.
Washington went from a guy I would take at a value to a player I am actively targeting. He is not quite on the level of Jaylen Waddle and Terry McLaurin, where I want him in every league and am willing to overpay, but he’s firmly in that next tier below them.
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We should also be skeptical of training camp hype. Coaches typically speak glowingly about players. Everyone is in the best shape of their career and going to do big things. But the Washington buzz has been consistent and universally positive from every conceivable source.
Combine that with the reports that Thomas is locked into that outside X receiver spot in the same role he played last season, and I am as convinced as ever that Washington will be the guy moving around the formation and running routes at all three levels, while Thomas is limited to mostly downfield shots. I firmly believe Washington will remain on the field in 12 personnel, too.
I now have Washington at WR26, ahead of both the olds (Mike Evans/Davante Adams) and the rookies (Carnell Tate/Jordyn Tyson). It may not stop there. I can see myself ultimately pushing Washington into the low 20s, possibly ahead of Jameson Williams, Garrett Wilson, and Tetairoa McMillan as well. I truly believe Washington has WR1 upside.
