Saquon Barkley is coming off an incredibly disappointing campaign that certainly gives fantasy football managers reason to question him going forward. He’s reached the point in his career where the inevitable decline is coming sooner rather than later.
While Barkley’s long-term value may not be where it was, though, the Philadelphia Eagles RB still looks like a great short-term bet.
Should You Draft Eagles RB Saquon Barkley in Fantasy Football?
Two years ago, Barkley recorded one of the greatest seasons in NFL history. He ran for 2,005 yards and posted 22.2 fantasy points per game. That is legendary stuff that wins leagues.
Since the fantasy community is smarter than ever, Barkley actually was not the consensus 1.01 in 2025. As little as three or four years ago, he would’ve been the No. 1 overall pick going away. Now, fantasy managers understood that, while Barkley was legitimately incredible on the field, he still had a very lucky season for it to be that elite.
Let’s compare Barkley’s career averages to his 2024 season. The first number will be his career, and the second will be 2024.
- Carries per game: 17.2 vs. 1.6
- Yards per game: 78.8 vs. 125.6
- Yards per carry: 4.6 vs. 5.8
Barkley is an elite talent who has always been good at football. He happened to find himself in the perfect situation in 2024, allowing his obvious talent to shine at the level it did. But it was never sustainable.
Barkley scored 15 touchdowns in 2024. Not a single one came from the one-yard line. Just four came from inside the five or even the 10-yard line. He scored 10 times from at least 18 yards out, including four touchdowns of 65+ yards. That just doesn’t happen consistently.
Sure enough, Barkley regressed in 2025. He averaged 4.1 yards per carry, saw his total volume drop by 65 attempts, and only scored nine times. It wasn’t a disaster. 14.5 PPG is not league-losing production from a top-five pick. But he was definitely a disappointment.
The issue with Barkley’s 2025 season is that we typically see regression to the mean. Instead, Barkley completely rubber-banded in the other direction. All of the good fortune he had in 2024 was supposed to go away, not become bad fortune. Yet, that’s what happened.
Philadelphia’s run blocking collapsed. The offensive creativity was nonexistent under OC Kevin Patullo, who was promptly dismissed after one season in the role. Everything about Barkley’s 2025 failures looks like a team issue, not a Barkley issue.
Barkley’s opportunity share actually increased a bit. He saw the same level of receiving volume (which is not much). His yards created per touch were relatively similar, and his evaded tackles per touch actually improved from 2024 to 2025. Everything about the massive dip in production suggests it was a team problem.
Barkley’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
Once again, we are projecting regression to the mean. This time, that means Barkley should improve.
The Eagles hired Sean Mannion as offensive coordinator. He will run a much more creative offense that utilizes more motion and actually tries to fool the defense.
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Reportedly, Barkley is seeing an uptick in receiving work, but color me skeptical that amounts to anything in a Jalen Hurts offense, even if we know Barkley is capable of being a high-end receiver. He’s seen a consistent 11.4-11.6% target share in his two seasons in Philly. Unfortunately, when Hurts only averages 24-28 pass attempts per game, the market share can’t translate into real volume.
Even so, we saw Barkley thrive on rushing production alone in 2024. He can do it again in a better offensive environment in 2026.
This year, he doesn’t cost a top-five pick. Barkley is the RB78 by ADP and typically falls out of the first round entirely. While he probably doesn’t have the same upside he showed in 2024 because we can never project rushing efficiency at that level, Barkley can certainly get to 20 PPG if things break better than they did last year.
For as long as fantasy football has existed, the most valuable asset has always been the elite running back. That’s become even more pronounced in the modern era as almost every team uses multiple backs, with true three-down backs from the 90s and 00s being a thing of the past. Barkley is one of the select few who is that type of back.
With Barkley, fantasy managers are getting an elite talent on a good offense who never comes off the field. Taylor stays in on third downs and during the hurry-up offense. The downside is he hasn’t benefited from the layup touchdowns that come with those easy one-yard plunges because of the tush push. But what if he does this year?
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The tush push wasn’t nearly as effective last season following Jason Kelce’s retirement. We could see the Eagles more willing to give the ball to Barkley this season. A couple more touchdowns, combined with a moderate restoration of his rushing efficiency, is all it would take to get him back into the 18 PPG range, which would make him a great selection at his current price tag.
Barkley’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
We know running backs decline earlier and much more steeply than wide receivers. Barkley is 29 years old. There is a risk that this is the year he falls off a cliff. That’s the case for any running back age 29 or older.
With that said, we can’t just rely entirely on historical precedent. We, as fantasy managers, must decide how likely it is that this is the year the particular player we are talking about declines. With Barkley, nothing about his 2025 performance suggested any dip in ability. He looked every bit like himself and the metrics support it.
Even so, Barkley likely only has another year or two, three max, as an impact fantasy asset. Rebuilding dynasty managers should absolutely be looking to trade him. But if you’re a contending team, Barkley is a great buy because his price is not where it was a year ago, and you could easily get two more elite seasons out of him.
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We have Barkley at RB13 in dynasty, which is pretty high for a running back his age. There always has to be a balance between winning now and prioritizing the future, which is difficult to capture in a singular rank.
Barkley’s value for your dynasty roster depends on your goals. Just know that while the end may be near, it is not here for one of the best running backs of this generation.
