The time is now. Chig Okonkwo’s physical gifts have had the interest of fantasy football managers for years, but he was stuck in a Tennessee Titans offense without much in the way of direction.
He joins the Washington Commanders this year, a team that has some question marks but also proof of concept when it comes to fantasy potential, thanks to what Jayden Daniels did as a rookie in 2024.
Should You Draft Chig Okonkwo in Fantasy Football?
What exactly do we “know” about Okonkwo through four seasons? I’d argue very little. Sure, we have an idea of the physical profile and what is possible at times, but he simply hasn’t been given the opportunity to play for even an average offense.
Tennessee Titans Offensive Rankings, 2022-25
- Passer Rating: 29th
- Pass TD%: 30th
- Points Per Game: 32nd
- Yards Per Game: 32nd
Okonkwo doesn’t have a 60-catch, 600-yard, or even a four-touchdown season on his resume yet. However, wouldn’t it be a little surprising if he were able to offer fantasy relevance in that situation?
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He was a fourth-round pick out of Maryland and has as many touchdown receptions in 68 pro games as he did in 38 collegiate ones. We can’t say for sure that he is going to go from secondary to legendary now that he joins the Commanders. That said, I think we will have a better idea of what is possible for him after four games in Washington than four years in Tennessee.
Offensive Rankings, 2024 Commanders
- Red Zone Drive Per Game: 4.2 (trialed only the Lions)
- Points Per Game: 28.5 (fifth most)
- EPA: 7.11 (fifth highest)
- PFSN Impact: 84.0 (sixth best, ahead of the Bengals, Packers, and Chiefs)
That’s certainly a step up, and this offense isn’t exactly loaded with impressive pass-catching resumes outside of Terry McLaurin, thus leaving the door open for target share growth over what we are currently projecting him to open the season with.
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I’m not making the case for Okonkwo to be considered a top-15 tight end entering the season, but rather having an open mind to him potentially working his way into that value.
2022-25, TE Target Rate Inside The 15-Yard line
- Zach Ertz: 14.9% (2nd most, 34 qualifiers)
- Okonkwo: 5.9% (32nd)
Only half of this data for Ertz came with the Commanders, but the tie to the franchise that Okonkwo now calls home is interesting at the very least and gives us reason for hope: isn’t that enough when it comes to throwing darts at the end of your draft?
Stefon Diggs’ addition this summer certainly broadens the range of target outcomes for Okonkwo in this offense, but I do think the quality of his look profiles is enough, given how little is expected of him.
Okonkwo’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
Part of the argument for drafting Okonkwo late in redraft is that you’re not really tied to him. If things don’t look great — maybe Antonio Williams is ready to shine from Day 1 or Treylon Burks sees his career turnaround — you cut bait and move on.
Dynasty leagues aren’t as forgiving, so you have to be a little more committed to the situation in those formats. He turns 27 in September. While I wouldn’t consider that too old for a multiyear run of relevance in dynasty, it is worth remembering the team spent a second-round pick on Ben Sinnott in 2024 (24 years old).
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Personally, I’m more likely to take a flier like Okonkwo in redraft because I can hedge my bet by recycling the position. That said, I think there is value to chase here in all formats for a toolsy tight end who is approaching his physical prime in the best offensive situation of his young career.
