The Giants required new offensive weapons after last season. New York finished 31st in total yards (299.6) and points scored (17.5) per game. As a result, the Giants made a lot of moves during free agency. How will New York’s offseason additions impact Sterling Shepard’s fantasy football outlook in 2021? This article answers that question and more.
Sterling Shepard’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The G-Men have been proactive in surrounding quarterback Daniel Jones with playmakers. He had a passer rating of 102.3 when targeting Shepard, which ranked first among Giants’ receivers with 50 or more targets. Will Shepard replicate that success next season?
Kenny Golladay will be a target monster
The Giants and Golladay agreed to a four-year, $72 million contract that included $40 million guaranteed. New York’s No. 1 receiver the past two seasons was Darius Slayton. He accumulated 180 targets, 98 receptions, 1,491 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns over that span. He led all Giants receivers in targets, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Yet, the former Auburn wideout only had four WR1 finishes in PPR formats over that time frame.
Darius Slayton and Kadarius Toney will also command targets
Slayton is better suited as a complementary receiver and will thrive against the opponent’s No. 2 cornerbacks. Many expected Golladay and Slayton to line up on the outside, attacking defenses vertically while Shepard would prosper as the team’s slot receiver. The Giants threw us a curveball when they selected Toney No. 20 overall in the NFL Draft.
Toney was essentially an offensive Swiss Army knife at the University of Florida. He played in 38 games during his collegiate career. He stockpiled 2,641 all-purpose yards in those games and caught 120 passes for 1,590 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Toney also rushed for 580 yards and 2 touchdowns in his career, highlighting his ability in the open field. His addition puts Shepard’s long-term future with the Giants in doubt.
Shepard’s outlook is as bleak as the wasteland in the Mad Max film series
Giants head coach Joe Judge has been adamant in the media that Toney was drafted to improve the team offensively and not replace Shepard. Still, the veteran receiver has no guaranteed money on his contract after this season. Shepard will make $6.975 million in base salary in 2021 with no guaranteed money after this season. The Giants could opt-out on his contract after this year, though Shepard’s contract runs through 2023.
He will also be competing for targets with tight ends Evan Engram and Rudolph. Jones has only averaged 33.6 passing attempts per game over the last two seasons. So you shouldn’t expect to see a dramatic impact in pass attempts per game in 2021.
Meanwhile, running back Saquon Barkley will return to the fold after a torn ACL derailed his 2020 season. He has averaged 21 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) per game over his three-year career. This includes 6.5 targets per game. There are only so many targets to go around in the Giants’ offense, and Shepard looks like the odd man out. Let’s examine his past production and 2021 fantasy projection.
Fantasy projection
Shepard has profiled as more of a WR3 in PPR formats since entering the NFL. In five seasons with the Giants, Shepard hauled in 313 receptions for 3,518 yards and 20 touchdowns. He’s only finished as a WR2 or better in 30% of his 65 games.
Shepard has averaged 7.2 targets per game. However, his 67 receiving air yards per game is statistical proof that he is not targeted much downfield. Receiving air yards indicates how far a pass traveled in the air before it was caught. As a reference point, former Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has averaged 114 receiving air yards per game in his career.
With his downfield limitations, Shepard profiles as more of a low-end WR5. A reasonable projection for him is around 70 targets, 50 receptions, 500 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns.
Sterling Shepard’s ADP
Shepard is generally being drafted in the 14th round of 12-team fantasy drafts when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker. He is going slightly earlier in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Shepard has an ADP of 158.72. His ADP is the lowest of the lot in half PPR formats on Sleeper (201.4).
Should you draft Shepard at this ADP in 2021?
Shepard has a relatively low floor and a low ceiling. Multiple dominoes have to fall for Shepard to be fantasy relevant given the Giants’ plethora of receiving weapons. It doesn’t help that Toney was drafted to replace him. Other players at his ADP are better positioned to provide a higher return on investment that you should prioritize. Raiders WR John Brown and Eagles WR Jalen Reagor are just a couple of names that come to mind.
It’s difficult to recommend Shepard outside of extremely deep formats or as a late-round flier.
