Regression is not an insult. It’s math. Jaxon Smith-Njigba posted one of the great receiving seasons in league history last year. History says he will not do it again. Fine. He does not have to.
Draft Smith-Njigba at pick 5 without flinching. PFN’s Kyle Soppe built an airtight case that the video-game numbers are coming down, and I am not going to argue with his data. The mistake would be letting that regression talk shove a genuine top-five player out of the top five.
You can read more about his fantasy football regression candidates here.
Why the Jaxon Smith-Njigba Regression Is Real
Soppe put it plainly. Over the past five seasons, a receiver has beaten his expected output by at least 27% only 12 times, and “no name is on that list twice.” Smith-Njigba landed on it in 2025 at +28.4%. The pattern is not subtle. Outlier seasons stay outliers.
Look at what he actually did. He caught 119 passes for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns, led the NFL in receiving, and swallowed 44.1% of Seattle’s receiving yards, the highest share in football by more than six points over Puka Nacua. Add a 15.1-yard average on 119 grabs, and you are staring at production almost no one sustains. The offensive coordinator who engineered it, Klint Kubiak, is now running the Raiders. Ask for that exact line again, and you are likely to come up short.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Still Deserves the No. 5 Pick
Here is the leap I will not make with Soppe. Coming back to earth is not the same as falling out of the first tier. A full reversion to his 2024 self, a season worth under 15 points per game, would be a genuine disaster at the fifth pick, and I understand the fear. I just do not see that as the realistic outcome. Back then he was a secondary option feeling out the role. Now he is the highest-paid receiver in the sport, fresh off the WR2 scoring season and a 44% share of his team’s receiving yards.
A full collapse is unlikely for one big reason. The volume is swinging his way. Seattle owned the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense in 2025, surrendering a league-low 16.9 points per game, a peak they are unlikely to match again.
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The ground game lost Kenneth Walker III to Kansas City and Zach Charbonnet to a torn ACL, which will likely cost him the first half of the season. Fewer easy leads and a thinner run game point one way. Sam Darnold throws more, Smith-Njigba runs more routes, and the added work props up his value even as the efficiency slips.
Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Nacua are the clear top four in fantasy this year, and I have no quarrel with any of them going ahead of Smith-Njigba. After that quartet, the fifth pick is his. The ceiling may not be quite as high, but a partial step back still leaves a high-end WR1, and that is exactly what the fifth pick should buy.
