Clark Lea aims to show that Vanderbilt’s 10-3 season in 2025 was far from a short-term wonder, leading the Commodores to another strong season in 2026. While the program has generated plenty of momentum, the upcoming season will serve as a major transition as Vanderbilt looks to move forward without quarterback Diego Pavia.
CFB Analyst Explains Why Replacing Diego Pavia Won’t Be Easy for Vanderbilt
It is a new era for Vanderbilt’s roster, as the program has to play without Pavia, who started playing collegiately at the JUCO level. He later earned a starting quarterback role at New Mexico State before transferring to Vanderbilt, where he spent the final two seasons of his college career.
Pavia was a big factor in Vanderbilt’s turnaround, as he led the Commodores to a 7-6 season and a Birmingham Bowl win over Georgia Tech in his first season in 2024. He elevated his game even further in 2025, leading the Commodores to the program’s first-ever 10-win season.
The Heisman Trophy Finalist was a dual-threat at Vanderbilt under offensive coordinator Tim Beck’s offense. He threw for 3,539 yards and 29 touchdowns, while also proving his caliber as a runner with 862 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in 13 starts in 2025.
Pavia graded out as the most impactful quarterback in college football last season, posting a 94.8 QB Impact Score, first among all FBS quarterbacks and the seventh-best single-season mark in Pro Football Network’s database. He paired that with 9.1 net yards per attempt (fourth nationally), a 71.2% completion rate (eighth) and 91 designed carries, the sort of dual-threat volume that gave defensive coordinators nothing clean to take away.
Pick Six Previews founder Brett Ciancia heavily praised Vanderbilt’s incredible rise with Pavia at the helm, but questioned whether the Commodores can maintain that level without him.
“It was not just Diego, there’s a lot of pieces around them, and they do have some players back, but I’m worried about the Diego Pavia effect, where this guy did so much for his team,” Ciancia said. “He just did so much for Vanderbilt. It might’ve been covering up some other positional issues.
“Several coordinators studied Pavia tape this offseason to try and find out how he’s so good off script to try and get their own quarterbacks to follow suit… So he wasn’t just the Heisman candidate, he was like a transcendental figure for them.”
“I’m worried about the Diego Pavia effect.”
Brett Ciancia of @PickSixPreviews believes Vanderbilt takes a BIG step back this season.
Do you agree?
Presented by @Kalshi pic.twitter.com/7SwQbZmF9E
— SEC Unfiltered (@SECUnfiltered) July 26, 2026
Vanderbilt indeed has a potential great successor for Pavia in former five-star quarterback Jared Curtis, who is the 2025 Tennessee Gatorade Player of the Year. Curtis committed to the Commodores after flipping from Georgia despite offers from Alabama and several other major programs, becoming the highest-rated recruit in Vanderbilt history.
Curtis is seen as the future of Vanderbilt, but Ciancia expects the program to experience some growing pains in 2026. Curtis has not won the job. Vanderbilt has an open quarterback competition, and Lea has declined to name a starter, explicitly saying one may not be named before the opener.
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“I know that Jared Curtis will be good eventually,” Ciancia said. “But just the player that Pavia was able to create and razzle-dazzle, I think that’s going to be a major loss for them. Talent-wise, I think there is a step back from last year’s performance.”
The Commodores open the 2026 season against Austin Peay on Sept. 5, where the program begins its transition into the post-Pavia era. The challenge will be even greater as Vanderbilt will navigate a nine-game SEC schedule for the first time.
