Confidence is high in the United States Men’s National Team’s camp after a blistering 4-1 win over Paraguay in their World Cup opener. While that win will have served as a marker of what the United States expects from themselves in a World Cup on home soil, Mauricio Pochettino’s side will brace for a tougher test when they take on Australia on Friday afternoon.
Ahead of the all-important game, here’s what the USMNT needs to advance to the knockout round of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How Can the USA Win Group D?
The USMNT will lock horns with Australia in Seattle on Friday afternoon, and a win here will all but guarantee their spot in the knockout round. The two teams are level on points heading into their second round of fixtures, but the USMNT leads Group D on goal difference. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET from the Seattle Stadium.
The simplest scenario for the USMNT is to beat Australia and have Paraguay and Turkey draw, or for Paraguay to win. With Paraguay and Australia due to play in the final group game, only one of them would be able to reach six points, so the USA would be guaranteed not only to qualify but to win the group on account of having head-to-head wins over both.
If Turkey wins against Paraguay, things are a little less clear-cut, even with a win for the USMNT. If the USMNT gets to six points and both Australia and Turkey are on three points, things remain up in the air in terms of the top two spots in the group.
Clinching scenarios for the @USMNT today pic.twitter.com/32WXMR44Kw
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) June 19, 2026
There is a scenario in which Turkey beats the USA in the third round of matches, combined with Australia’s victory, and all three teams would be tied at six points. In that event, it would come down to goal difference across the three teams, with Australia currently at +2, the USMNT at 0 (having not played either), and Turkey at -2.
The positive for the USMNT is that six points should be more than enough to advance as one of the best third-placed teams, but that path through the knockout stages will be tougher.
SIMULATE THE WORLD CUP: PFN’s FREE FIFA World Cup Simulator
Our World Cup Simulator marginally favors the USMNT in Seattle this Friday, giving the hosts a 38.6% chance of beating Australia, with a 33.1% chance of a draw. Meanwhile, in the other game, a Paraguay win or a draw has a 33.2% probability. That means the USMNT’s chance of winning the group today is 12.8%.
The focus for the USMNT will be to win and essentially secure their spot in the knockouts in some format. What happens in the other game is out of their control, but if they draw or lose to Australia, qualification is wide open.
Facing arguably the strongest team in the group in the final round in Turkey, the USA will want to have the job done before that. A win today will be enough to secure the top spot in the group, as a draw in the final group game will be.
If Christian Pulisic suits up today, the probability of a win is a touch higher for the USMNT. Head coach Mauricio Pochettino has kept his cards close to his chest ahead of the USA’s Matchday 2 showdown, giving nothing away when it comes to Pulisic’s recovery from a calf issue.
It’s not exactly win-or-bust territory for the USA in Seattle this afternoon, but a win would go a long, long way in Group D.
Don’t expect the United States to run away with this game as they did against Paraguay. The Australians may have pulled a rabbit out of their hat against Turkey, but they’re a legit unit standing in the hosts’ way. If Pulisic doesn’t suit up or is restricted today, the onus will fall on the in-form Folarin Balogun to shoulder the attack.
Expect this to be a much more closely fought encounter.
