The Chicago Bears made Luther Burden the 39th overall pick in 2025, and after a bumpy start to his rookie campaign, he looked like a fantasy football star in the making when all was said and done last season. Not only did he post his best game of the season in the Super Bowl of many leagues (8-138-1 in San Francisco during a Week 17 loss), but he went on to earn seven targets in both playoff games, a clear indicator that he’s viewed as a critical piece in this Ben Johnson offense. But how much of a jump should you realistically expect in his second season?
Is Luther Burden About to Become a Fantasy League Winner?
We can all agree that the future is bright for this organization. They have a coach and quarterback seemingly coming of age together, and the supporting pieces have the potential to make the playoff run of 2025 a common occurrence rather than the exception.
The team showed its hand a bit this offseason by trading DJ Moore to the Buffalo Bills and not putting a high priority on replacing him. Sure, they spent third-round draft capital on Zavion Thomas, a project prospect who never reached 550 receiving yards in college, and brought in Kalif Raymond from rival Detroit (2,554 yards and nine TDs in 112 career appearances), but the message is clear.
Ben Johnson believes that the star power left from last season is more than enough to build a winner on the back of. Don’t believe me? Let him tell you.
“I’m buying Luther Burden stock right now,” Johnson proclaimed.
“Just how he’s approached his offseason, it’s been electric. He showed up yesterday, and he had numerous explosive plays. I loved how, in phase two, he was finishing every single rep that he took. That really translated over to yesterday as well. So he’s in a really good spot, still developing and growing his route tree…He’s been extremely coachable, so I’m really happy with him.”
Bears HC Ben Johnson is buying Luther Burden stock. pic.twitter.com/gcSuB74DYt
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 28, 2026
When it comes to our world of production, the Burden profile has some holes. The talent is evident, and the idea of a featured role in a Johnson point-scoring machine is tantalizing, but let’s take a deeper look before pushing him into the first half of the fourth round.
As a rookie, he totaled 652 receiving yards, and since 2011, receivers that produce at the general level (525-699 yards in Year 1) are fantasy misses more often than not. In that sample, only 32.5% are what I’d call success stories: multiple seasons where they were a WR3 or better.
That’s painting with a bit of a broad brush, though, so let’s drill down more on the micro. Burden’s splash plays were fun last season, but how sustainable are they?
Of the 78 receivers that saw 50+ targets last season, Burden ranked sixth in PPR points scored relative to expectation. Producing above expectations is, of course, a good thing, but it’s hard to do consistently. Of the top-15 point-over-expectation WRs in 2024, only eight finished inside the top-30 in 2025, with relative disappointments in Ladd McConkey and Chris Godwin being the cautionary tales.
There’s a line to walk here, and I think that is evident based on his current ADP in the best ball streets. Jaylen Waddle, now in Denver, and the aforementioned McConkey are two receivers being drafted in the same range that I’d prefer to Burden. Waddle could be in for the best season of his career, while McConkey profiles as a more stable option in an offense that has a more consistent thrower running the show.
That said, Mike Evans and former Ben Johnson weapon Jameson Williams are also a part of this cluster, two receivers that I wouldn’t ever consider clicking on if Burden is still on the board. Evans is a flight risk joining a new team, and while Williams has a similar ceiling case as Burden, it’s hard to argue that his floor (seven games with under 7.0 PPR points) justifies this level of spending.
Burden is a very good player with the potential to be great, but that potential is unlikely to hit the 2026 stat sheets. He earned just four targets on 30 red-zone routes as a rookie, and that’s alarming for a variety of reasons.
- Scoring drives fantasy upside
- Chicago ranked ninth in red zone plays and thus only has so much upside
The Bears were 26th in red zone drop back rate a season ago, a near mirror image of where the Lions sat in six seasons with Johnson at the controls (25th). I think we can expect improvement from Year 1 for Burden, and that lands him in this low-end WR2 tier that you can try on for yourself via the FREE Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator.
What I don’t think we get this season is the type of bankable production week-over-week that allows him to elevate to the level that some analysts/sites will be expecting after a press conference like this.
