The PFSN Football Debate Club Strength of Schedule Surprises segment produced two angles in opposite directions.
Ian Cummings flagged the Washington Commanders’ middle-of-the-pack schedule as a soft landing for a team needing a bounce-back year. Jacob Infante pointed to the Miami Dolphins, where the league’s second-hardest SOS lines up with a stripped-down roster, a first-year head coach, and the worst possible closing stretch on the calendar. Jacob has the bigger surprise.
Miami’s Closing Six-Game Run Is a Tanking Roadmap
ESPN pegs the Dolphins’ 2026 strength of schedule as second-hardest in the league, with opponents at a combined .542 winning percentage from 2025.
The closing stretch is where the math turns ugly. Miami’s final six games run through the Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills, and New England Patriots — every single one a 2025 playoff team, with the Patriots fresh off a Super Bowl LX appearance and the Broncos coming out of a run to the AFC Championship Game.
“They’re going to be lucky if they win any of their last six games,” Jacob said. “That’s not going to be pushing for a playoff. That’s going to be pushing for the number one seed in the 2027 NFL Draft.”
The roster doesn’t help the schedule. Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Bradley Chubb are all gone. Jaylen Waddle was traded to Denver. Mike McDaniel was fired and is now coordinating the Chargers’ offense, which makes Miami’s Week 16 home date with Los Angeles its own subplot.
First-year head coach Jeff Hafley arrived from Green Bay as the Packers’ defensive coordinator, joined by new GM Jon-Eric Sullivan and projected starting QB Malik Willis, both former Packers staffers. The Dolphins’ Week 15 trip to Lambeau is essentially a homecoming game for the entire front of the building.
“Arch Manning or Dante Moore, get ready to learn South Beach,” Jacob said.
Ian’s Case for Commanders Is Real, but Less of a Surprise
Ian’s pick of the Commanders as a soft-schedule beneficiary has merit. Washington’s slate includes the Arizona Cardinals, who finished 3-14, the Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings from the third-place crossover bucket, and AFC South opponents, the Tennessee Titans (3-14) and the Indianapolis Colts, during what could be Daniel Jones’ absence after his Week 14 torn Achilles tendon last December.
The Commanders also reinforced their roster in the draft, landing Sonny Styles at No. 7 overall and Clemson receiver Antonio Williams in the third round.
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“I think it’s easy enough for a team that has started to rebuild and take advantage and get a very much needed bounce back,” Ian said.
The framing runs into a sourcing problem, though. ESPN’s Schefter pegged Washington’s 2026 SOS at 16th overall, which is middle of the pack rather than a top-ten cake walk. Washington also faces seven 2025 playoff teams, including two dates with the Eagles, plus the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans, and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Add an opening run of road games at Philadelphia and Dallas before a Week 4 trip to London against the Colts, and the start of the season is anything but soft.
The difference is in magnitude. The Commanders may benefit from a few winnable matchups inside a normal schedule. The Dolphins are a full rebuild facing the league’s second-hardest path, with their closing stretch lined up like a tanking script. One pick describes a moderate boost. The other describes a season that ends with Miami’s analytics department refreshing 2027 mock drafts. That’s the bigger SOS surprise.
