Forty-eight hours into their new jobs, John Chayka and Mats Sundin were handed the kind of gift that franchise rebuilds are built around. On Tuesday night in Secaucus, the Toronto Maple Leafs defied their 8.5% lottery odds to land the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, setting up a selection between Penn State forward Gavin McKenna and Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg at the top of what is widely considered a deep and talented class.
The building exhaled. The optics improved overnight. But the most important question hanging over the franchise did not change with the lottery ping pong balls.
Auston Matthews, who missed the final stretch of the regular season with a torn MCL and quad contusion, has two years left on his contract and still hasn’t committed to being a Maple Leaf when the puck drops in October.
Why the Maple Leafs’ Lottery Win Does Not Guarantee Auston Matthews Will Stay in Toronto
Sportsnet insider Elliotte Friedman, one of the most plugged-in voices in the sport, addressed the situation directly on his 32 Thoughts podcast, and his read was pointed.
“It definitely changes the dynamic,” Friedman said. “People are going to ask, ‘Does this change anything for Matthews?’ I don’t think it does at this point in time.”
The distinction Friedman is drawing is important. A No. 1 pick is an asset, a signal of intent, a future cornerstone alongside a 28-year-old captain still in his prime. But it is not a plan. And for Matthews, Friedman made clear, a plan is exactly what is required.
“Auston Matthews is going to ask the Maple Leafs to sit down and say, ‘What’s your plan and how do you plan on executing it? How are you actually going to do it?’ He has to be convinced. Not only are you going to be able to do it, but how you’re actually going to go out and do this.”
This is not new territory for Matthews. He has watched this franchise cycle through coaches, general managers and rebuild promises for a decade. He helped Team USA win Olympic gold in February, returned to Toronto, and watched the Leafs finish 32-36-14, missing the playoffs for the first time in his career.
The front office that oversaw that collapse is gone. But the new regime of Chayka and Sundin arrived to immediate skepticism. Chayka was called a “con artist” at his own introductory press conference, a reference to a fraud lawsuit stemming from his time running the Arizona Coyotes. The lottery win softened that reception. It did not erase it.
Per The Athletic’s Chris Johnston, Matthews is not yet willing to commit to playing in Toronto next season. League sources told Johnston that the only pitch Matthews needs at this stage is real action, not promises, not plans on paper, but meaningful roster upgrades through trades and free agency before he makes any decision.
The Leafs lose their 2027 and 2028 first-round picks to Philadelphia and Boston as part of prior trade obligations, which tightens the asset picture considerably going forward.
Friedman’s closing warning to the Leafs was the clearest he got. “Even if he likes the plan, if he’s not convinced they can act on it, that’s where the problem is going to be. From what I understand, he has to be convinced. This is a very big step, but this player alone is not going to completely change the fortune of this franchise.”
That last line cuts to the heart of everything. McKenna or Stenberg, whoever Toronto takes at No. 1, will arrive on an entry-level contract and contribute to a team that still needs a goaltender, defensive depth, secondary scoring and credible free agent targets in what most scouts are already calling a thin July market.
Chayka said Monday that he plans to sit down with Matthews in the next couple of weeks to give him answers about where the franchise is headed. Matthews, who has a full no-movement clause and significant leverage over any potential destination, will be listening closely.
The lottery gave Toronto a chip. Friedman is warning that cashing it in will require a lot more than luck.
