The final of the 2026 Miami Open will be a blockbuster clash between top seed and defending champion, Aryna Sabalenka, taking on home favorite and the fourth-seeded Coco Gauff. For Sabalenka, this will be her 44th career final, fourth of this year, and 15th at the WTA 1000 level. For Gauff, this will be her 15th career final, her first this year, and 6th at the WTA 1000 level.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff Match Details
Date: March 28, 2026
Tournament: Miami Open 2026
Round: Final
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Fla.
Surface: Outdoor hard
Category: WTA 1000
Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, Sky Sports, TSN
Sabalenka vs. Gauff Head-to-Head
After 12 meetings, the head-to-head is split at 6-6 between the two players. The last time they played, it was Sabalenka who won 7-6 (5), 6-2 at the WTA Finals last year.
Sabalenka has been in perfect form in Miami this year, reaching the final without dropping a set. After getting a bye in the first round, she won against the likes of Ann Li and Caty McNally in the first couple of matches.
Her first seeded opponent was 23rd-seeded Zheng Qinwen in the fourth round, whom she beat 6-3, 6-4. In the quarterfinals, she won 6-4, 6-4 over home favorite Hailey Baptiste, before putting up another impressive display in the semifinals, winning 6-4, 6-3 over third-seeded Elena Rybakina.
Gauff has had to go through some tough three-set matches to reach the final in Miami. After the first-round bye, she had to fight through three-set matches against the likes of Elisabetta Cocciaretto, Alycia Parks, and Sorana Cîrstea to reach the quarterfinals.
She put up another great fight against 12th-seeded Belinda Bencic in the quarterfinals, winning 6-3, 1-6, 6-3, before winning with a dominant 6-1, 6-1 scoreline against Karolína Muchová in the semifinal.
Sabalenka vs. Gauff Prediction
As per first serve stats, Sabalenka and Gauff have been performing well in Miami, with Sabalenka winning 73 percent of the points and Gauff winning 72 percent of the points.
However, the double faults and poor second serve numbers have seen Gauff face as many as 45 break points on her serve in five matches, 25 of which she has saved. Sabalenka, on the other hand, has saved 12 of the 20 break-point opportunities in her five matches.
Breakpoint conversion rates are almost similar between the two players after five rounds in Miami. Sabalenka has won 18 of the 40 break point opportunities (45 percent), and Gauff has won 28 of the 64 break point opportunities (44 percent).
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Tournament stats and current form side with Sabalenka, as evidenced by the PFSN Simulator, which has given a 75 percent win probability to the top seed. The Belarusian has won 22 of the 23 matches she has played this year, and is attempting to complete the Sunshine Double.
Gauff, on the other hand, did not start the year well, but has gradually shown her mettle in Miami. The head-to-head may be even, but the American has beaten the World No. 1 in two Grand Slam finals. However, Sabalenka’s current hard-court form gives her a slight edge in the upcoming match.
Pick- Sabalenka to win in three sets
