Top seed Carlos Alcaraz will go up against the fifth-seeded and defending champion, Andrey Rublev, in the semifinal of the 2026 Qatar Open. Alcaraz is yet to lose a match this year, with the Spaniard being unbeaten for 10 matches so far, whereas this is the second semifinal for Rublev this year, having made the last four at the Hong Kong Open.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev Match Details
Date: Feb. 20, 2026
Tournament: Qatar Open 2026
Round: Semifinal
Venue: Khalifa International Tennis and Squash Complex, Doha, Qatar
Surface: Outdoor Hard
Category: ATP 500
Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, TSN, RDS, Sky Sports
Alcaraz vs Rublev Head-to-Head
After five meetings, Alcaraz has a 4-1 lead in the head-to-head against Rublev, with the Spaniard winning 6-3, 4-6, 7-5 during their last match at the Cincinnati Open last year.
Alcaraz began his campaign in Doha with a 6-4, 7-6 (5) win over Arthur Rinderknech in the first round. The top seed faced another French opponent, Valentin Royer, in the second round, winning 6-2, 7-5, recovering from a 2-5 score in the second set. However, he faced his toughest opposition in the quarterfinals when he faced the seventh-seeded Karen Khachanov, with Alcaraz winning 6-7 (3), 6-4, 6-3 in a tough three-set battle.
Rublev started his campaign in Doha with a 6-4, 6-3 win against Jesper de Jong in the first round. The Russian maintained his form with a 6-2, 6-4 win over Fábián Marozsán in the second round. The defending champion got his entry to the semifinal after a 6-3, 7-6 (2) win over a former World No. 3, Stefanos Tsitsipas, in the quarterfinals.
Alcaraz vs Rublev Prediction
Both Alcaraz and Rublev have looked secure on serve in Doha so far, with both of them winning 76 percent of their first-serve points, with Alcaraz edging slightly on the second serve, winning 61 percent of the points compared to the Russian’s 59 percent. Both of them have hardly gotten their serve broken, with Alcaraz being broken once in three matches and Rublev being broken twice.
On return, Rublev has had a better break point conversion rate, converting 10 of the 15 break point opportunities in three matches, whereas Alcaraz has converted 8 of the 24 break point opportunities he has created. The Spaniard has played more aggressive tennis though, hitting 131 winners in his matches, compared to Rublev’s 78 winners.
For Rublev to cause the upset, he needs to maintain a high first serve percentage and to get as many free points as possible. In return games, the Russian can use different court positions, especially during second-serve situations.
Playing defensive tennis against someone like Alcaraz has little chance of success, as the Spaniard has excellent rally tolerance and has the power to outmaneuver Rublev. Playing aggressive tennis is the best option for the Russian, but the top seed is the firm favorite to win the upcoming match, even though it has a prospect of being a three-set match.
Pick– Alcaraz to win in three sets.
